Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 9:55 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 9:35 am

Was looking at the schedule trying to figure out where to insert the 6th starter.

7 (Home) games in a row to open season, then off day, then 17 games in a row!  Then 2 off days sandwich 2 games @ Dbacks.

If use the 6th SP in the 1st stretch, end up with 7 days between starts for all but Darvish.  I'd rather see #1 & #2 make their 2nd start on normal rest.  Get to the off day.  Then go (on extra rest): 3, 4, 5, 1, 2... THEN insert the 6th SP for the 13th game of season keeping all on extra rest.

The other thing that caught my eye is we host LAD 4/16-18 for 3 games, then 4 games at LAD 4/22-25.  It sets up that, if on a 6-man rotation, whoever starts the 1st 3 games would be in line to start 3 of 4 the away series.  Too convoluted to "back into" this being our #1-3 SP, BUT... I wonder if Pads are eyeing one of those series for the return of Lamet?  Even as an "opener", could influence those games.

I tried to do the same exercise to get the best Padre pitchers aligned for both LAD series. Tricky. Might have to manipulate the rotation order right out of the blocks and strategically use the 6th spot starter.

On the other hand, IF they Padres are happy with the matchup using any of Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, and Paddack ... and if Lamet is ticketed back ... the only objective is to avoid needing that 6th SP vs. LAD.

Hard to think this though this early in the season (not sure where every starters arm stands) and the SP history of effectiveness on either long or short rest.

Maybe (despite the fans concerns) ... just set up the rotation that is good for the long haul and let the match ups fall as they may.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 10:21 am

Quote from Ben Davey on March 5, 2021, 9:12 pm

We do know that Perdomo (who was not a FA) was DFA AFTER having TJ surgery in October.  He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers even though he will miss all of 2021.

During the offseason, teams can get rid of whatever players they want injured or healthy.  Remember the team cannot have over a 40 man roster by the winter meetings (40 man + 60 day IL - FA).  During the season, I do not believe players on the 60 day can be let go.

Castillo was going to be a bonus for the pen.  As it standshis injury, plus the injury to Guerra, and the continued rehab by Strahm (he said he was 50-50 about being ready for OD), it might mean Morejon makes the team out of ST.  Pom, Pagan, Keila, Melancon, Hill, Stammen, Johnson, Morejon is 13 pitchers right there and thats without counting Altavilla, Baez, or Williams

LOL I'm such an idiot.  "Can't remember one ever happening", but it just did!   I guess I 'compartmentalized' Perdomo differently in my head because he was a potential Non-Tender even when he was healthy.  But it really is the "same" thing.

Same with Wingenter last Summer ST  too I guess.  I thought maybe they "had to" IL him because it happened in ST, but I guess it's up to Front Office what to do.  A little surprised they are going to carry him on IL through likely 2 full seasons of MLB service time, but, like Castillo, he does have good stuff/peripherals, and is cheap, controllable & optionable.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 11:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 9:43 am

The dilemma is built into how the Padres see Altavilla / Williams potential effectiveness to start the season and how that impacts winning games in APR vs. any other candidate to break into the roster. They may be on the roster and still be a poorer option than ... hypothetically ... Knehr who is not on the roster (but if added would have options).

Have 3 weeks for the Padres to make that evaluation ... have to consider among all those non-roster types there may be some potentially as good (or better) candidates that could get called up if needed during the season.

Altavilla / Williams are probably not getting any extended time to show their worth given age / past ML performance / being out of options ... so, better show something special for the rest of ST ... then continue that into the season. Looking like DFA now or DFA later scenario baring a major production turnaround.

I think the ("obvious") realization I've had in the last week is that it's OK to have a guy on your roster for a month or even just 2 weeks... it's still some MLB value cobbling together a full season.  And never know what's going to happen on the injury front.  If injuries dictate say Altavilla or a NRI on OD roster until the first guy comes off IL...  ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL I'd go with Altavilla (vs DFA & likely lose him), because there could always be more injuries at MLB or AAA/Alt site before the team gets back to "ideal health".

Same thing IMO re a 6th starter type... wouldn't call up in advance at the expense of DFA "Altavilla" 2 weeks earlier because in 2 weeks you might really need him.   Have to keep an eye on the length of the season when making permanent roster decisions.  Gives the out of options RP's an advantage for OD roster, but puts them at a disadvantage over the course of the season if the staff can stay relatively healthy.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 11:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 9:55 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 9:35 am

Was looking at the schedule trying to figure out where to insert the 6th starter.

7 (Home) games in a row to open season, then off day, then 17 games in a row!  Then 2 off days sandwich 2 games @ Dbacks.

If use the 6th SP in the 1st stretch, end up with 7 days between starts for all but Darvish.  I'd rather see #1 & #2 make their 2nd start on normal rest.  Get to the off day.  Then go (on extra rest): 3, 4, 5, 1, 2... THEN insert the 6th SP for the 13th game of season keeping all on extra rest.

The other thing that caught my eye is we host LAD 4/16-18 for 3 games, then 4 games at LAD 4/22-25.  It sets up that, if on a 6-man rotation, whoever starts the 1st 3 games would be in line to start 3 of 4 the away series.  Too convoluted to "back into" this being our #1-3 SP, BUT... I wonder if Pads are eyeing one of those series for the return of Lamet?  Even as an "opener", could influence those games.

I tried to do the same exercise to get the best Padre pitchers aligned for both LAD series. Tricky. Might have to manipulate the rotation order right out of the blocks and strategically use the 6th spot starter.

On the other hand, IF they Padres are happy with the matchup using any of Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, and Paddack ... and if Lamet is ticketed back ... the only objective is to avoid needing that 6th SP vs. LAD.

Hard to think this though this early in the season (not sure where every starters arm stands) and the SP history of effectiveness on either long or short rest.

Maybe (despite the fans concerns) ... just set up the rotation that is good for the long haul and let the match ups fall as they may.

I tried to "back into" our #1-3 lining up the 1st (so also the next ) LAD series.... and gave up after 2 minutes.

It's not worth compromising multiple games until then just because "it's the LAD".  It's more likely they could get there by skipping starts / a spot start or 2 than 'working backwards'.   Hard to plan your rotation this far ahead, let alone any further.    EVERY game is important, not just games vs LAD.

Pads will do something so their #4-6 SP's aren't each making 2 starts in those first 7 games vs LAD....

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 2:43 pm

The Padres claimed Jordan Humphreys off waivers from the Giants and will add him to the 40-man roster, per the team. To make room on the 40-man, Jose Castillowas placed on the 60-day injured list. Castillo will soon undergo Tommy John surgery.

=============

Guess this answers the Castillo question. Humphreys is 24 year old RHP (with 3 minor league options). Was having a very good minor league career before injuries and that dreaded TJ surgery that wiped out 2018 and 2019.

Since the surgery as been bouncing around via the waiver route (a lot this winter) so maybe just a "look and see" for the Padres since they had the flexibility with Castillo ... not sure any player that has been DFA this much has that much upside ... he may be not recovering from TJ as well as hoped. Room on the roster ... why not. Maybe later they DFA him and he clears giving the Padres time to work with him in 2021.

Quote from fenn68 on March 7, 2021, 6:05 am

Follow-up on Humphreys .... some scouts must see the potential and have long memories.

Had a very good 2017 (Low A) ... then TJ and basically has not pitched since (3 years).

Nov, 2019 Mets added him to the 40 man after missing two seasons to protect him from Rule 5

Sep, 2020 Mets put him on waivers and SF claims him without really seeing him pitch since 2017 in Low A

Nov, 2020 SF put him on waivers and CLEV claims him

Feb, 2020 CLEV put him on waivers and SF claims him (again)

Mar, 2020 SF put him on waivers (again) and SD claims him.

For a guy who has not pitched above Low A since 2017 ... that is a lot of interest. Seems like organizations want him but keep trying to sneak him through waivers ... and not succeeding.

Not that highly rated as a prospect before the TJ ... 18th round draft pick out of HS ... low 90s FB but never made the Mets Top 10 prospects. Scouts must see something.

Guessing Padres drop him into High A and reportedly they plan on using him starting and relieving.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 7, 2021, 10:03 am

There's always about 10-12 guys like him every year that go through the Waivers carousel as the 40th/41st (DFA) guy on team's roster.  Remember Breyvic Valera last year?  We claimed him from Brewers, they claimed him back from us.

The healthier the Pads stay now till O.D, the better his chance of sticking.  He's nowhere near MLB ready, but doesn't have to be with 2 options.  IF at full health, Pads 40-man roster WILL open up, as at least 1 if not 2 of the out of options RP's may have to be DFA.  But if there are injuries, those guys are more likely to occupy roster spots, and Humphreys' 40-man spot would be vulnerable to late in ST waiver claims or minor trades.

He can help b/c Minors SP depth not ideal to start season.  Nix (shoulder inflammation in ST),  Bachar (elbow? = not in ST = injured during instructs?), Avila (9/19 TJ Surg: hasn't appeared yet in ST), Lawson (3/20 TJ Surg) all may not be ready to go even delayed Minors openers.   But would really have to perform, and have above go his way to stick all year.  Likely bumped eventually by other RP promotions?

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 13, 2021, 12:44 pm

I’d feel a lot better about our depth if Kim would start hitting.

I’m not as worried about Pham cause he has always hit...but a good streak for him would be nice also

 

Quote from LynchMob on March 24, 2021, 3:37 pm

Closer Monkey sez ... http://closermonkey.com/test/2021/03/24/kirby-yates-out-for-the-year-jose-leclerc-to-begin-season-on-il/

San Diego Padres – Emilio Pagan might well be the Padres closer when the season begins, beat writer Kevin Acee recently reported. Pagan pitched with an injury last year but is healthy this spring and has experience closing. Manager Jayce Tingler has admitted he would prefer one guy get the job “in an ideal world,” and many within the organization say they assume Pagan will be that guy, Acee reported. Couple that with the fact that Drew Pomeranz is dealing with tightness and inflammation in his arm, and we’re looking at a shuffled hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Pagan | Melancon | Pomeranz.

This doesn't match what I'm feeling ... which is: Pomeranz > Kela > Melancon > Pagan ... but I'm pretty far away.  What are you feeling?