Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 7:49 am

I've been wondering if with Lamet "progressing", but just more cautiously, if Pads might actually option him.  Doesn't matter for $ or service time since in arb already, but then could keep stretching out at the Alt site in "real" game situations he won't be able to in SD?   Strahm would eventually be another candidate, but he's really "out" for now.

Not to be flip about what might be a serious setback for Jose Castillo... but I had him pegged for AAA anyway.  So a roster spot doesn't really open.  The one player affected most is Tim Hill.   He had a GREAT debut, and looks like a lock as the 2nd LH in pen with Strahm AND Castillo out.  With perfect health; Melancon, Kela, Pom, Pagan, A. Adams, P. Johnson, & Stammen all look like inflexible "locks" if no trades.  That's 8!   That leaves Guerra, Altavilla, & Taylor Williams competing for 1 spot or as injury depth.

Agree that Guerra has way more upside than the other 2, but he HAS to be better than they are right now... can't "wait for him to get there someday".  I'm VERY surprised Guerra hasn't been in a game yet:  really thought he would log the most appearances in the pen to max the experience he needs.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 8:13 am

This is from The Athletic"

As of now, the expected plan is for most minor leaguers to report to their spring training sites in Florida or Arizona around the beginning of April, coinciding with the start of the MLB regular season. Triple-A players and staff, however, will report to the club’s Triple-A facility, which will be established as the MLB alternate site for April.

According to the guidance given to minor-league players on Wednesday, the plan for minor-league roster sizes will be 28 players at the Triple-A and Double-A levels and 30 players at the High-A and Low-A levels.

Typically, Double-A and Triple-A teams have 25-player rosters. The Single-A affiliates can have 25 active players, with 35 players “under control.” By expanding active rosters, MLB hopes to limit player travel between affiliates.

It is expected that many of the players who make up the Triple-A/alternate site rosters in April are players who are in major-league spring training camps as non-roster invites. At the alternate sites, players will be held to stricter safety protocols than at minor-league spring training, because of the potential need to promote a Triple-A player to the MLB active roster.  In April, clubs can only promote players from the alternate site, not from Double A or lower.

.... a lot to unpack there.  I would be stunned if MLB "makes" the Padres use El Paso as their Alt site instead of Lake Elsinore.  Same for other teams with an empty affiliate stadium closer to home than their AAA team.  Just doesn't make sense given the objective.  Pads would be flying taxi squad guys from 'we're too tough to wear masks' Texas to mix with their entire MLB roster on road trips?

The other item of note is use of the word "many".  Implies AAA/Alt site roster can (will) include some guys who were not in the MLB ST.  This makes sense since all Minors teams now starting around the same time.  Expect to see:  Lake Bachar, Brett Kennedy, and some older OF that aren't in ST on the Alt site/AAA team.

Finally, since skipping snowy April in Ft Wayne AND limiting travel between affiliates, I expect the Pads to "push":  Hassell & Abrams to now A+ Ft Wayne.   In a normal year, think Pads would start young position players like them in now low-A Elsinore to get their feet wet and avoid the tough weather AND level jump in Ft. Wayne to start season.

Quote from fenn68 on March 4, 2021, 9:16 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 8:13 am

This is from The Athletic"

As of now, the expected plan is for most minor leaguers to report to their spring training sites in Florida or Arizona around the beginning of April, coinciding with the start of the MLB regular season. Triple-A players and staff, however, will report to the club’s Triple-A facility, which will be established as the MLB alternate site for April.

According to the guidance given to minor-league players on Wednesday, the plan for minor-league roster sizes will be 28 players at the Triple-A and Double-A levels and 30 players at the High-A and Low-A levels.

Typically, Double-A and Triple-A teams have 25-player rosters. The Single-A affiliates can have 25 active players, with 35 players “under control.” By expanding active rosters, MLB hopes to limit player travel between affiliates.

It is expected that many of the players who make up the Triple-A/alternate site rosters in April are players who are in major-league spring training camps as non-roster invites. At the alternate sites, players will be held to stricter safety protocols than at minor-league spring training, because of the potential need to promote a Triple-A player to the MLB active roster.  In April, clubs can only promote players from the alternate site, not from Double A or lower.

.... a lot to unpack there.  I would be stunned if MLB "makes" the Padres use El Paso as their Alt site instead of Lake Elsinore.  Same for other teams with an empty affiliate stadium closer to home than their AAA team.  Just doesn't make sense given the objective.  Pads would be flying taxi squad guys from 'we're too tough to wear masks' Texas to mix with their entire MLB roster on road trips?

The other item of note is use of the word "many".  Implies AAA/Alt site roster can (will) include some guys who were not in the MLB ST.  This makes sense since all Minors teams now starting around the same time.  Expect to see:  Lake Bachar, Brett Kennedy, and some older OF that aren't in ST on the Alt site/AAA team.

Finally, since skipping snowy April in Ft Wayne AND limiting travel between affiliates, I expect the Pads to "push":  Hassell & Abrams to now A+ Ft Wayne.   In a normal year, think Pads would start young position players like them in now low-A Elsinore to get their feet wet and avoid the tough weather AND level jump in Ft. Wayne to start season.

Interesting.

I could see MLB mandating the AAA affiliate location as the alternate site basically with the AAA team. Avoids the issue of taking players from AZ sending them to LE for one month and then sending to EP. Minimizes all the potential issues with with a double move in the space of a month at the potential impact on health and safety ... and cost. Plus for the minor league players allows them to settle in their "home" (maybe with family). If the roster in AAA will be 28 and then add the contenders for a roster spot that is a lot to shuffle around in a month.

Not worried about the flight in/out of EP to wherever if there is a call-up need in April ... just normal. The taxi squad is different and they more likely will just workout with the club at PETCO (they travel with the club on the road) under the same ML protocols.

Except for OF ... the ML camp seems to have a full contingent to fill the AAA roster so maybe only a limited few are added (Ruta, Azocar, Kohlway?)

Agree on Abrams and Hassell having a good chance to start in High A but we still have a three weeks of ML camp and then a month in minor league camp ... so could go both ways with their showings during those next seven weeks. Would not totally write off Abrams in AA ... given the review last season at the alternative site and his work so far this spring ... long shot but possible.

The "expanded" rosters should make for interesting decisions on retained players ... most likely more pitchers since the minor league arms have a worse issue in innings management than the ML arms given zero work in 2020.

Quote from fenn68 on March 4, 2021, 9:40 am

If Lamet is to start on the IL (or optioned) ... his replacement may depend on how long the Padres expect him out. If short (2 weeks) might take one option but if longer (2 months) maybe another. Then tie that with a 5 or 6 man rotation.

I would expect Morejon as the first in (as #6 or Lamet's replacement in a 5 man). If Morejon is in as #6 then Lamet's replacement if a longer out should be between Gore or Weathers .. and ST will make that decision. If it is a short IL ... probably goes to Weathers since the Padres seem to want Gore to start and when gets called up ... stays up.

LHRP ... looks as though Pomeranz and Hill will be in. Same as with Lamet, sort of depends on how long Strahm and Castillo appear to be IL. Could just go with 2 LHRP in the short run (actually potentially in the long run) opening up a RP slot for a RHRP. That would make it a Guerra vs. Altavilla battle since Williams "apparently" has a option left (depend on which source you read). Since none are proven to be all that good as ML players ... it will boil down to ST and who helps the most on a contender. However, that is just a short term call since Strahm should return putting the survivor back on the bubble in a couple of weeks or so. I guess there may be some strategy as to timing of placing a player on waivers (better chance of getting them through) .. don't really know.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 11:20 am

The 40-man roster is full.  At this point in time it seems extremely unlikely Lamet or Strahm would be on 60-day IL.  Castillo TBD; could be.  That would open 1 spot.  Pads theoretically could add a LHRP to 40-man roster, BUT because:  Guerra, Altavilla, and Williams are all definitely out of options (just checked Williams history), they would have to DFA ANOTHER 1 of these guys to "create" the spot for another LHRP.  Not going to DFA their depth just to add a LHRP they already control as a band aid till Strahm's healthy.

BUT Preller/Tingler obviously know the lack of optionable guys in the pen is an issue.  I think all the NRI's like Miguel Diaz do have a weird opportunity where they're almost better positioned over the course of the full season because they ARE optionable.  The MLB depth is great right now, but will have to get resolved somehow by O.D.  Hopefully some other team not us gets more bit by the injury bug & Preller can make favorable trades out to  open up a roster spot or 2.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 11:40 am

It is true that moving the whole AAA team to Elsinore for 1 month would create a bunch of logistical challenges of housing, players moving twice, etc.

But not doing so seems to create a minor "unfair" scenario for the Padres.  Take Mariners as an example.  Their AAA is Tacoma; 30 minutes away.  So they can change up their taxi squad every road trip from the players at that site to keep Pitchers, esp SP stretched out, on a regular throwing/"ST" schedule.  Can Padres do this with their alt site in El Paso?  Not really without increasing health/travel risk to the entire MLB team by "mixing" Texas guys in repeatedly.   It seems to just undermine the entire purpose of all the new rules... i.e. limit travel & people in different geographic locales mixing to reduce chance of spreading Covid.

Taxi squad not missing any games as they would have before, which might have been the driver behind pushing AAA out a month.  Not as "big a deal" as it would have been before.  If Pads' Alt site is really Texas, I'm guessing they go with the same taxi squad the whole month of April?

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 11:41 am

I agree Abrams has a chance at AA placement.

Quote from fenn68 on March 4, 2021, 11:50 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 11:20 am

The 40-man roster is full.  At this point in time it seems extremely unlikely Lamet or Strahm would be on 60-day IL.  Castillo TBD; could be.  That would open 1 spot.  Pads theoretically could add a LHRP to 40-man roster, BUT because:  Guerra, Altavilla, and Williams are all definitely out of options (just checked Williams history), they would have to DFA ANOTHER 1 of these guys to "create" the spot for another LHRP.  Not going to DFA their depth just to add a LHRP they already control as a band aid till Strahm's healthy.

BUT Preller/Tingler obviously know the lack of optionable guys in the pen is an issue.  I think all the NRI's like Miguel Diaz do have a weird opportunity where they're almost better positioned over the course of the full season because they ARE optionable.  The MLB depth is great right now, but will have to get resolved somehow by O.D.  Hopefully some other team not us gets more bit by the injury bug & Preller can make favorable trades out to  open up a roster spot or 2.

 

 

Baring some major run of injuries in the pen ... and the likely group to make the pen .... shouldn't we expect that two of Guerra, Altavilla, and Williams be DFA (or traded) opening two slots which will have future value for call-ups caused by additional injuries. Bit of a longer shot all three could be traded / DFA to make room for different RP with minor league options who would be sent down when Strahm is activated (Thompson? Weathers?).

I guess if they know soon that Castillo is 60 day they could add someone to the roster before the end of ST then DFA/trade the three out of option RP and be sitting with three open roster slots to start the season ... and a lot of flexibility. Pushing the flexibility angle, if the keep O'Grady and DFA Mateo ... roster would drop to 36 and O'Grady has an option so easy mid-season shuffling if needed.

Bottom line is that ... depending what evolves over the next three weeks ... Preller has a lot of choices with the "fringe" of the 26/40 man rosters.

Gore is the only non-roster player that is almost a certainty to make the active roster at some point in 2021.

Quote from fenn68 on March 4, 2021, 12:02 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 4, 2021, 11:40 am

It is true that moving the whole AAA team to Elsinore for 1 month would create a bunch of logistical challenges of housing, players moving twice, etc.

But not doing so seems to create a minor "unfair" scenario for the Padres.  Take Mariners as an example.  Their AAA is Tacoma; 30 minutes away.  So they can change up their taxi squad every road trip from the players at that site to keep Pitchers, esp SP stretched out, on a regular throwing/"ST" schedule.  Can Padres do this with their alt site in El Paso?  Not really without increasing health/travel risk to the entire MLB team by "mixing" Texas guys in repeatedly.   It seems to just undermine the entire purpose of all the new rules... i.e. limit travel & people in different geographic locales mixing to reduce chance of spreading Covid.

Taxi squad not missing any games as they would have before, which might have been the driver behind pushing AAA out a month.  Not as "big a deal" as it would have been before.  If Pads' Alt site is really Texas, I'm guessing they go with the same taxi squad the whole month of April?

I have know feel as to how teams will deal with the taxi squads ... but guessing just will have them with the ML club at home and on the road but not mix and match with the alternate site players in April.

Given (after the issues at the start of 2020) ... the use of the taxi squads were minimal and for some teams not at all. If the teams look at the taxi squads that way ... for emergency only and not likely to be used ... may not full staff the five slots and the players they select may be non-prospect minor league veterans. Could just go with a catcher on the taxi squad.

If in the unlikely event of a sweeping COVID issue ... more likely the game gets cancelled. If a singe even, not really that much difference than dealing with a day to day injury situation. If needed, only take about a day to get a call-up from EP.