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2021 Season
#1021 · August 30, 2021, 10:04 am
Beginning to think more about the winter roster and 2022 and that led me to current players with contract options and if those contact options will (should) be exercised:
- Melancon ... MUTUAL option (rare to get both sides to agree) for $5MM against a $1MM buyout if the Padres decline. Given he has been fine in 2021 even though he "older" would think the Padres exercise their part (only an incremental $4MM) and $4MM for an established closer is "reasonable". Melancon has a more difficult call ... at his age (37 next year) probably not getting a multi-year deal and a question on how much he will command (over $5MM) may, in this case, make him exercise his side.
- Marisnick ... MUTUAL for $4MM against a $500K buyout. Expect the Padres to decline and pay the buyout. Cheaper alternatives should about given what will be asked for his role.
- Stammen ... CLUB for $4MM against a $1MM buyout. Expect the Padres to pick up the option (incremental only $3MM) and his ability to handle high workload in various roles effectively has been valuable (plus a shortage of viable alternatives known now).
- Johnson ... CLUB for $3MM against a $1MM buyout. More of a question but for an incremental $2MM would expect the Padres to exercise the option given viable alternatives. If in ST there becomes better options ... a $3MM RP who is reasonably effective would be an good trade chip.
So, I guess Stammen IN, Johnson IN, Marisnick OUT, Melancon probably OUT.
#1022 · August 30, 2021, 10:09 am
538 sez: what-happened-to-this-once-promising-padres-season
Making matters worse for San Diego, they have the toughest remaining schedule in MLB according to Elo, after adjusting for opposing starters and game location. (Cincinnati, by contrast, has the third-easiest remaining slate in baseball.) Of the Padres’ 35 remaining games, 25 are against teams with above-average Elo ratings, including 10 against the Giants, nine against the Dodgers and three each against the Astros and Braves.
#1023 · August 31, 2021, 12:34 pm
We do have the suspended game with Atlanta coming up late this month.
Lets hope it still means something by the 24th.
If you recall we were leading 5-4 going into the bottom of the 5th of a 7 inning game.
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LynchMob
#1024 · September 1, 2021, 4:05 am
Welcome to San Diego, Blake Snell! Shame it took him nearly 5 months to arrive but if this is what we are to expect the rest of the way, I'll take it.
I've been on his under performing backside for awhile and am now happy to admit( and glad!) I was SO wrong!
Keep bringing it Blake- and Joe, and Yu, and Chris, and Jake, and Dinelson. THIS is what we all expected when AJ brought all these guys in.....I just hope it's not too late.
Go Pads!
#1025 · September 1, 2021, 4:09 am
If Manny Machado DOES NOT win the Gold Glove for 3rd baseman this year, it'll be a complete fix! Not only is he making ALL the plays around 3rd, but he's also making them in shallow RF!
It also helps that his numbers are similar offensively to Arenado.
And I wonder if Cronenworth's shift to SS will dampen his chances of taking the honor at 2B?
#1026 · September 1, 2021, 5:27 am
SEPT brings in the push to the playoffs with one of the most difficult schedules among the contenders for the last Wild Card slot BUT still think a “healthy” Padres’ team has the horses to make that run. Now tied with CINN and 2.5 games ahead of STL and PHIL should make scoreboard watching a thing.
SP is beginning to looks as was envisioned to start the season … consider Aug performance:
1. Snell (6 starts) … 1.72 ERA (seems to have settled with Nola catching)
2. Musgrove (5 starts) … 2.53 ERA (similar to pre-All Star)
3. Darvish (3 starts) … INJURED … 6.32 ERA (but pre All-Star 3.09 ERA so a healthy Darvish ?)
4. Paddack (1 start) … INJURED … 1.93 ERA (BUT not effective over the season)
5. TBD … note Weathers had 4 starts in Aug with a 12.42 ERA off a pre-All Star 2.91 ERA … he needs to be shelved.
Fortunately with the number of off days Padres could live with a four man rotation for the most part getting Snell, Musgrove, Darvish the max starts which should be an advantage.
Of course these guys need to preform … but that can be said for all the contenders.
#1027 · September 1, 2021, 5:41 am
Now consider the offense and the key may be the rebounds from poor Augusts for:
1. Machado (107 AB) with a below average .633 OPS … just bad for a middle of the order impact bat … but that came off an excellent July when the idea of MVP candidate started to be talked about.
2. Pham (78 AB) with a really poor .557 OPS. Not a good season for Pham who was supposed to be an impact top of the order factor. Given the short time remaining … go with the hot hands that should be Myers - Grisham - Tatis in the OF with Profar being the first in (note Profar in Aug 22 AB with a 1.072 OPS).
Always want the others to do better but at a minimum need to keep up their August performances.
#1028 · September 1, 2021, 5:55 am
Quote from WindsorUK on September 1, 2021, 4:09 amIf Manny Machado DOES NOT win the Gold Glove for 3rd baseman this year, it'll be a complete fix! Not only is he making ALL the plays around 3rd, but he's also making them in shallow RF!
It also helps that his numbers are similar offensively to Arenado.
And I wonder if Cronenworth's shift to SS will dampen his chances of taking the honor at 2B?
In the NL Cronenworth is still sitting #1 in DRS and dWAR for 2B … plus his bat helps his profile (shouldn’t but does).
Two main competitors in K.Wong (won last year) but has had a season where he was optioned to the minors and was in and out of the line-up (good dWAR) and J. Segura who is tied with Cronenworth in DRS but has a significantly lower dWAR.
Knowing his move to SS (and continuing excellent defense there) was driven by the Tatis move may actually help him is showcasing his defensive skills. Keep in mind the winner is determined by the vote of Managers and Coaches who probably know him as a 2B.
#1029 · September 1, 2021, 6:12 am
Add: Arenado and Machado are statistically really really close in defense … maybe Sept will make the difference but tough to unseat Arenado.
On the other hand good chance Grisham repeats .. in part because of no competition. Only 3 “qualified” CF and one (Robles) has just been optioned to the minors and his lack of offense can’t help. Grisham has 7 DRS and Robles has 0 which should more than offset his better dWAR. The third contender is Reynolds (PITT) and he is not even the picture based on stats. Side: seem to be a real shortage of CF considering on 3 qualified in the NL.
#1030 · September 1, 2021, 9:25 am
When did CF become so difficult to man?
As a kid, it seems like everyone had a flashy CF. I guess most back then( like SS) they were just there for D. Today, different story.