Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2019, 8:02 pm

Sort of my base case (without trades) for reducing the current 51 rostered players to the initial (pre-rule 5 moves) 40 man roster ... drop the following:

Stammen - Free Agent (might resign on a minor league deal and add him back to the ML roster at the end of ST)

Kinsler - buyout

Loup - buyout

Warren - buyout

Kennedy - DFA

Erlin - waive out of minor league options

Edwards - waive out of minor league options

Stock

Yardley

Mejias-Breen

Martini or Jankowski (who is also out of minor league options in 2020)

==============

Then MAYBE a Rule 5 protect or two. With the new 26 man active roster it should be easier for bad team to select (and keep) a Rule 5 player ... especially a position player. Names that will be considered (but not necessarily protected): Eugy Rosario; Cordoba; E. Ruiz; Reed; Ona; and pitchers: Bachar; Scholtens; Miller; Henry; ... the others would be real long shots.

=============

Doubt any of the 11 I listed have any trade value, so at best might score waiver claim and a few bucks. IF the Padres go into trade mode ... might have to focus on dealing multiple 40 man roster players for one roster player (or a non-roster player) to open up some flexibility for the Padres to add thier own non-roster prospects during 2020 (e.g. Gore, Patino, Trammel).

 

Quote from Jose Luis Hernandez on September 10, 2019, 8:30 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2019, 8:02 pm

Sort of my base case (without trades) for reducing the current 51 rostered players to the initial (pre-rule 5 moves) 40 man roster ... drop the following:

Stammen - Free Agent (might resign on a minor league deal and add him back to the ML roster at the end of ST)

Kinsler - buyout

Loup - buyout

Warren - buyout

Kennedy - DFA

Erlin - waive out of minor league options

Edwards - waive out of minor league options

Stock

Yardley

Mejias-Breen

Martini or Jankowski (who is also out of minor league options in 2020)

==============

Then MAYBE a Rule 5 protect or two. With the new 26 man active roster it should be easier for bad team to select (and keep) a Rule 5 player ... especially a position player. Names that will be considered (but not necessarily protected): Eugy Rosario; Cordoba; E. Ruiz; Reed; Ona; and pitchers: Bachar; Scholtens; Miller; Henry; ... the others would be real long shots.

=============

Doubt any of the 11 I listed have any trade value, so at best might score waiver claim and a few bucks. IF the Padres go into trade mode ... might have to focus on dealing multiple 40 man roster players for one roster player (or a non-roster player) to open up some flexibility for the Padres to add thier own non-roster prospects during 2020 (e.g. Gore, Patino, Trammel).

 

IMO, Martini needs to be on the 26 man roster; very good getting on base (for these two weeks at least).

Quote from 3fingersplit on September 10, 2019, 9:15 pm

Just reported

Christian Yelich is out for the season.....he broke his kneecap

Quote from JasonE135 on September 10, 2019, 11:31 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2019, 8:02 pm

Sort of my base case (without trades) for reducing the current 51 rostered players to the initial (pre-rule 5 moves) 40 man roster ... drop the following:

Stammen - Free Agent (might resign on a minor league deal and add him back to the ML roster at the end of ST)

Kinsler - buyout

Loup - buyout

Warren - buyout

Kennedy - DFA

Erlin - waive out of minor league options

Edwards - waive out of minor league options

Stock

Yardley

Mejias-Breen

Martini or Jankowski (who is also out of minor league options in 2020)

==============

Then MAYBE a Rule 5 protect or two. With the new 26 man active roster it should be easier for bad team to select (and keep) a Rule 5 player ... especially a position player. Names that will be considered (but not necessarily protected): Eugy Rosario; Cordoba; E. Ruiz; Reed; Ona; and pitchers: Bachar; Scholtens; Miller; Henry; ... the others would be real long shots.

=============

Doubt any of the 11 I listed have any trade value, so at best might score waiver claim and a few bucks. IF the Padres go into trade mode ... might have to focus on dealing multiple 40 man roster players for one roster player (or a non-roster player) to open up some flexibility for the Padres to add thier own non-roster prospects during 2020 (e.g. Gore, Patino, Trammel).

 

I think we will re-sign Stammen to a major league contract. If we don't someone else will. Everyone will be trimming 40 man rosters at the same time. It's like the rule 5 draft, only the terrible teams will have rosters bad enough to make taking someone else's castoffs worth it to them. We may lose a guy or two, but nobody we will miss.

Quote from fenn68 on September 11, 2019, 4:08 am

Quote from JasonE135 on September 10, 2019, 11:31 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2019, 8:02 pm

Sort of my base case (without trades) for reducing the current 51 rostered players to the initial (pre-rule 5 moves) 40 man roster ... drop the following:

Stammen - Free Agent (might resign on a minor league deal and add him back to the ML roster at the end of ST)

Kinsler - buyout

Loup - buyout

Warren - buyout

Kennedy - DFA

Erlin - waive out of minor league options

Edwards - waive out of minor league options

Stock

Yardley

Mejias-Breen

Martini or Jankowski (who is also out of minor league options in 2020)

==============

Then MAYBE a Rule 5 protect or two. With the new 26 man active roster it should be easier for bad team to select (and keep) a Rule 5 player ... especially a position player. Names that will be considered (but not necessarily protected): Eugy Rosario; Cordoba; E. Ruiz; Reed; Ona; and pitchers: Bachar; Scholtens; Miller; Henry; ... the others would be real long shots.

=============

Doubt any of the 11 I listed have any trade value, so at best might score waiver claim and a few bucks. IF the Padres go into trade mode ... might have to focus on dealing multiple 40 man roster players for one roster player (or a non-roster player) to open up some flexibility for the Padres to add thier own non-roster prospects during 2020 (e.g. Gore, Patino, Trammel).

 

I think we will re-sign Stammen to a major league contract. If we don't someone else will. Everyone will be trimming 40 man rosters at the same time. It's like the rule 5 draft, only the terrible teams will have rosters bad enough to make taking someone else's castoffs worth it to them. We may lose a guy or two, but nobody we will miss.

In Stammen’s case we may see a minor league deal with an “understanding” that he will be added to the ML roster on a ML contract (pre-agreed terms) at the end of ST when they put Espinosa or Avila on the 60 day IL (or someone else). If they don’t, a clause giving his immediate release and with the need of ML RP should have immediate takers.

As I recall when they re-signed him last winter, part of the reason Stammen returned (arguably below market) was his desire to remain a Padres working with Balsley and ... maybe as important ... his wife wanted to stay in SD (true?).

The fact that he eats innings out of the pen has value ... maybe more so in 2020 with the tighter reigns on IL stints and a strict cap at 13 pitchers ... will do a lot in keeping the younger RP fresh as they develop into longer roles down the road. Plus ... other than Yates ... he may be the only real veteran in the pen to mentor to young RP.

Quote from fenn68 on September 11, 2019, 4:15 am

Looks as though Urias is settling in a bit in the ML. In the past 30 days he has posted a .351 OBP and considering how much we were troubled by the Padres need players to get on base ... Urias is providing what they need.

Add that from what I have seen ... his range, arm, and glove work will make him one of the better 2B defensively in MLB.

As a very young rookie ... he may be heading towards projection as a plus ML 2B.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 11, 2019, 6:28 am

I think both France and Urias are showing well in their audition time with Tatis being out. France looks like he could be a Jeff Kent type at 2B, with even a little better defense than Kent. And if Urias is the guy, which  I think he will be, then France is going to make a nice bench piece. Garcia makes sense as a LHH back up for the INF, and I think he can play some LF in a pinch IIRC. Now lets get the OF taken care of.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 11, 2019, 11:27 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2019, 8:02 pm

Sort of my base case (without trades) for reducing the current 51 rostered players to the initial (pre-rule 5 moves) 40 man roster ... drop the following:

Stammen - Free Agent (might resign on a minor league deal and add him back to the ML roster at the end of ST)

Kinsler - buyout

Loup - buyout

Warren - buyout

Kennedy - DFA

Erlin - waive out of minor league options

Edwards - waive out of minor league options

Stock

Yardley

Mejias-Breen

Martini or Jankowski (who is also out of minor league options in 2020)

==============

Then MAYBE a Rule 5 protect or two. With the new 26 man active roster it should be easier for bad team to select (and keep) a Rule 5 player ... especially a position player. Names that will be considered (but not necessarily protected): Eugy Rosario; Cordoba; E. Ruiz; Reed; Ona; and pitchers: Bachar; Scholtens; Miller; Henry; ... the others would be real long shots.

=============

Doubt any of the 11 I listed have any trade value, so at best might score waiver claim and a few bucks. IF the Padres go into trade mode ... might have to focus on dealing multiple 40 man roster players for one roster player (or a non-roster player) to open up some flexibility for the Padres to add thier own non-roster prospects during 2020 (e.g. Gore, Patino, Trammel).

 

Yes, I'm in very close agreement...

Stammen - FA = 50, Warren & Loup - Buyouts = 48, Kinsler under contract for 2020, so technically think he's a straight - Release = 47, Erlin & Carl Edwards Jr (bring Edwards back on a Minors deal with incentives to get back to 1.5 MM if at his best) - Arb Eligible Non-Tenders = 45.  I agree on Non-Tendering Pre-arb (Injured) Kennedy, but as a contending team trying to put together the best 40-man possible , I would add Espinoza & Avila to this list too; MLB potential, but near 0% chance of MLB contribution in 2020.  Can try to retain any/all on Minors deals if other teams don't stash them on their 40-man rosters.  This = 42.  I agree 3 most obvious "bubble" guys are:  Stock, Yardley, & Mejias-Brean....  that would = 39 (see below).

Think Martini with an option left is exactly what they need as a stopgap LH OF depth option bridging to Cordero & Trammell in 2020, and has already showed well enough that he is 40-man offseason relatively safe.  Jankowski is on the bubble with no option next year, but IMO is well worth the 1.2 MM or whatever as an insurance policy on other moves.  Even if team makes no other OF moves, he competes in ST and is always going to be tradeable for the value he brings at that price.  Javier Guerra is also offseason safe I believe b/c of his unique situation.  If you DFA him now or offseason, it's 100% that a bad team like Baltimore will claim him; just too much upside.  But so raw it would be tough for him to stick in a 7-man pen with:  Yates, Munoz, Strahm (L), & Jose Castillo (L)  on Opening Day next year.  Solution:  He goes all the way through ST.  If doesn't make O.D. roster, DFA at last minute.  Very likely to get through waivers then since other teams will have set their 25-man rosters too; allows him to get the experience he really needs at AA.

So besides Jankowski, I've got M. Diaz, G. Reyes, Bednar, & Nix as the next 5 on edge of roster.  But could be as little as NONE protected in Rule 5.  My top 12 (no order) is the 9 you mentioned except not Bachar, Scholtens, or E. Miller plus:  Osvaldo Hernandez (assume he's eligible since other Cuban 2016 signees all on 40-man?), Jordan Guerrero (big FB, BIG dude R5 profile), Hansel Rodriguez (Preller traded for him), Trevor Megill (like Guerrero), and Carlos Belen (1 MM signee RP conversion like Guerra).   Simply hard to fit guys as "better" than others on 40; particularly in deep OF depth chart with Trammell not needing to be protected...

But my #1 guy to protect/select is Ivan Castillo... see the "Last 18 games thread".  But after the year he's had, I don't see how you don't select him as a 24 y.o. Switch-hitter Middle Inf over someone like 28 y.o. Mejias-Brean or Yardley.  Will be a little disappointed if Pads don't select him after the AA playoffs.  He has earned the callup as much as Olivares & Torrens have.

Quote from TatisJr on September 11, 2019, 11:41 am

Quote from JasonE135 on September 10, 2019, 7:41 pm

To Mr. Hernandez and Mr. Tatis, we do not want Thor! The man is not an ace. He has pitched like one in the past but he is not now. The reason you want an ace is to show the other guys on the staff how to train, pitch, win and just act on the field. Thor acts like a spoiled child. He would INFECT our staff, not improve them. I hope there are no huge trades or signings. People think MadBum was bad this year so he will sign for cheap? He is looking to break $100 million and I am sure that Boras has him convinced that he can. And the team looking for the trade is the one that loses it 90% of the time. If they know they have what we want, they can just say no until they get whatever THEY want. We couldn't get Thor at the trade deadline and I can guarantee you his price has not gone down.

Jason, I definitely would love to see Thor in a Padres uni and I think he would immediately step in as the teams ace. Despite a down year for him hes still managed a 2.4 WAR which would be the best on the Pads staff. When you look at his numbers when Ramos isn’t catching him, they are ACE numbers. 2.45 ERA. His ERA is over 5 when Ramos is his catcher. Before people start with well Mejia won’t be much better, I think it’s more of a target issue with Thor and Ramos. Thor is 6’6 and Ramos I believe is 6’4. Ramos is notorious for setting his target up in the zone and not getting down in a normal crouch. Mejia at 5’8 keeps a low target from a low crouch. The other thing is Thor is 27 and if you watched him pitch this year the guy has top 5 stuff in the league. I’ll pair his stuff with Darren Balsley any day. A guy with Thor’s ability and at his age seems like a perfect fit for this team.