Quote from fenn68 on September 21, 2019, 5:54 pm

Although one can expect this as the normal eyewash going into the winter, Preller was pretty clear in his interview that 2020 will be a season the Padres expect to contend.

Plus expect a very active winter season.

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No idea what the direction will be but he seemed to be ready to move on from the players that have not developed over the past few years to their projections.

So, maybe giving the Hedges, Renfroe, Myers, Margot ... all been given years to establish themselves ... more time is over. Could we see them bite the bullet and really eat some Myers money just to move him? Preller is under more pressure with this season and the Green firing ... so action should trump patience. We probably should be prepared for some surprises.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 21, 2019, 9:13 pm

Do you really think there is any way for a GM to put a specific time out there for when his team will be competitive? I mean, we are Padre fans! Old ownership used to tell us every year that we would be competitive next year. Just keep spending your money. Every team sells itself like it is ONE move away from being competitive. Preller was talking about all those prospects we had. With a year to get experience our infield would be set and great by 2020 along with a pitching staff with a ton of talent. He wasn't saying he was going to go nuts and buy us a playoff in 2020. He said that is when our competitive window should open, and I think it will. Myers is going nowhere. Neither is Renfroe. Hedges has already been replaced. Margot will be by the end of next year. I wouldn't and don't expect any huge moves.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2019, 8:47 am

Agree and disagree. Don't think the Padres will contend in 2020 with this team ... but, yes, Preller has to publicly think that way. On the other hand, it is Preller (and the ownership) that engineers changes ... that may or may not inch them into a potential Wild Card run (no idea that they are close to overtaking the LAD in the near term).

The key is really the impatience from Fowler ... he did open the purse to since Machado and Hosmer (like that or not) so with all that commitment doubt he just sulks in the corner lamenting a losing team. He will push Preller to make moves.

The Green firing is the opening shot of patience running out. To get that attention of the players ... time to jettison some of the under-performers that have been the basis of the last 4 losing seasons. May not be replaced with mega-stars but just getting replaced sends a signal to the others ... produce or you are gone. Hopefully their replacements are incrementally more productive.

Myers (28), Renfroe (27), and Hedges (27) have been around a long time and actually in 2019 they under-performed their mediocre offensive career stats. After being around the ML for about 4 years and still not taking the next step up ... the team has to show that is not acceptable. They are the reason this team has been near the bottom offensively for years.

Can't change out everyone ... Machado / Hosmer are locked in ... the real upside kids are the ones they should gamble upon: Mejia - Urias - Tatis - even Naylor. Make the changes in the OF.

One constant among Myers - Renfroe - Hedges seems to be their resistance to ever adjust their swings from the sweeping, upper cut even when a critical run is in scoring position ... then becoming amongst the highest K% in MLB. Whether is it just stubbornness or just lack of ability ... unproductive and unacceptable. Not good role models for the young prospects who the organization are trying to do things to actually improve.

Moving Renfroe and Hedges is not going to generate much of a return ... but no money committed ... so the value of the move is any incremental plus in their replacement and not having to have them play for SD.

Myers really is the bite the bullet issue. First have to accept the "dead money" idea. Might be time to just eat whatever they have to eat to get someone to take him ... even without any return.

Padres tried to make the commitment to winning statement by the signing of Hosmer and Machado ... not enough apparently ... so take the next step with the firing of Green ... now at the point were weeding out the veteran continual under-performers is critical.

Still don't think that will get them the Wild Card in 2020 ... but it at least moves them in the right direction.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 22, 2019, 9:06 am

I don’t see them moving Hedges actually.

There is an advantage to having the best defensive Catcher in baseball as your backup.

I just don’t think he will generate enough in return in a trade to justify losing his defense.

Especially if we decide to carry 3 Catchers with the 26th spot available.

I’m not sure about Renfroe either?

He at least made great strides on defense and if his 2nd half woes were indeed injury related I believe his 40 HR power will be worth keeping.....esp. at his cost.

But we need to make changes somewhere.....

Does Kinsler play a bench role for this team in 2020?

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2019, 9:39 am

I expect Kinsler to just get released ... eat the contract. He was that bad and being only a 2B will not get playing time over Urias .... or even Garcia. Padres need the 40 man roster spot.

Agree that Hedges may be the surviver for his veteran defensive ability ... as a 40 game back-up. Appears the Padres are not enamored with Allen as a future catcher (they are not playing him) and Torrens is probably better served for a year in AAA (rather than back-up) and poised for call-up in 2020 if needed.

I guess we will disagree about Renfroe .. even at 40 HR and improved defense ... his sub-.300 OBP and 30+K% just just too detrimental to the overall offense. Earlier this year his lack of hitting with runners in scoring position was a concern. Plus in 2019 is 40 HR all that special? While Renfroe sits at 18th in WAR (for the 41 RF with >300 PA) he is only 27th in wRC+, 38th in OBP, and 40th in BA. Given his slash line is actually close to his career line and the Padres need offense ... he has to be on the outs.

But agree changes need to be made to one of the worst offenses in MLB for the past four years .. has to be in the OF.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2019, 11:06 am

Getting the sense we are seeing the last days of Jankowski.

At one point thought the platoon of Margot / Jankowski would provide plus defense in CF and complementary R/L hitting to net a net above average CF.

However, if the Padres saw it that way .... we should be seeing Jankowski getting a lot of starts at this point in the season ... he is seeming an afterthought.

Sort of leaves Margot as the only legit CF around and then bet on a Cordero return, major leap by Trammell, or just give CF to Myers. Those options don’t make me feel comfortable going to ST.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 22, 2019, 11:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2019, 9:39 am

I expect Kinsler to just get released ... eat the contract. He was that bad and being only a 2B will not get playing time over Urias .... or even Garcia. Padres need the 40 man roster spot.

Agree that Hedges may be the surviver for his veteran defensive ability ... as a 40 game back-up. Appears the Padres are not enamored with Allen as a future catcher (they are not playing him) and Torrens is probably better served for a year in AAA (rather than back-up) and poised for call-up in 2020 if needed.

I guess we will disagree about Renfroe .. even at 40 HR and improved defense ... his sub-.300 OBP and 30+K% just just too detrimental to the overall offense. Earlier this year his lack of hitting with runners in scoring position was a concern. Plus in 2019 is 40 HR all that special? While Renfroe sits at 18th in WAR (for the 41 RF with >300 PA) he is only 27th in wRC+, 38th in OBP, and 40th in BA. Given his slash line is actually close to his career line and the Padres need offense ... he has to be on the outs.

But agree changes need to be made to one of the worst offenses in MLB for the past four years .. has to be in the OF.

 

I’m not advocating for keeping Renfroe.....just speculating.

As far as 40 homeruns goes.....even in this record breaking season only 4 NL outfielders have 37 or more with a little over a week to go.Bellinger,Yellich and Acura are the only outfielders in the NL with 40.

Renfroe also has a higher Slugging % than Bryce Harper.

Obviously His OBP is a big problem.....but it appears to be about his “only” problem.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2019, 11:25 am

Doubt this will appeal to any out there but if you only look at 2nd half offensive stats the Padres OF should be:

LF: Martini ... 271/366/357 (probably a short run aberration)

CF: Myers ..... 273/385/455 (his annual hot streak)

RF: Naylor .... 264/340/458 (getting better except defensively)

Of course that does reflect “selective” playing time but still is well above:

Margot .... 235/325/425 (and that includes a hot streak)

Renfroe .... 171/265/323 (injury issue but career not better than the top 3)

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2019, 11:52 am

Not sure the implications of the following in making changes to the roster but consider for 2019:

Pitching using xFIP: 6th BEST in MLB on the road and 12th BEST at home. Does suggest that as bad as we see the Padres pitching ... the rest of the league has a lot of problems (makes the value using pitchers in trades greater).

Defense using one measure has the Padres 16th and DRS at 14th (bit overstated with Hedges providing the bulk of the plus side).

Offense using wRC+: 16th BEST on the road (surprised?) but 27th at home. Machado is a big piece of this difference having a .850 OPS on the road and only a .713 OPS at PETCO. Why?

On the surface improving the defense and finding some hitters who can hit in PETCO may be the most impactful to adding some wins. No idea how to figure out who will hit in PETCO while still contributing on the road.

Just food for thought.