Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 2:20 pm

Tough to "project" what 60 game season would have translated into over 162... just completely different, injury dependent, etc.

The one big thing that stands out to me though, is that in just 60 games we came in 8, 11, and 12 games ahead of:  San Fran, Colorado, & Arizona respectively.  That projects to: 21, 30, & 32 games behind over a full 162 game season.  Not "identical", but extremely similar schedules with all common opponents in this weird season, which is argument against it being a "fluke" from a short season.  There IS a big gap right now between us & the other 3 teams in the NL West.

However, we were 6 GB LAD, which projects to: 16 games behind the evil empire over a full season... really can't argue that was a fluke either.  Padres have dramatically narrowed the "quality" gap in 2020 vs LAD in starting position players, SP, & bullpen.  But LAD still have a BIG bench advantage.  Worth noting either Pham/Profar/ or Cronenworth would be "bench" if all 3 healthy, which would help a lot.

Significant Roster improvements made at deadline that carry into 2021 (Clevinger, Nola, Moreland, A. Adams) hopefully have already made a dent in that 15-16 game gap.  Think Preller focuses on bench building in 20-21 offseason.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 2:52 pm

When was the last time we ended a season thinking that all we needed to do was improve the bench?

Ive been around since game #1 and I can’t remember when that was ever the case.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 3:34 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 2:52 pm

When was the last time we ended a season thinking that all we needed to do was improve the bench?

Ive been around since game #1 and I can’t remember when that was ever the case.

 

Odd feeling isn't it.

Even without re-signing Profar, I am OK with the projected 8 position players and DH (Moreland) ... plus Mejia as the 2nd catcher. So left to speculate about upgrading the 3 remaining bench roles for OF / INF ....

Bring back Profar who would be the 4th OF / 5th INF / RH DH (basically a Swiss army knife starter) ... would be hard to worry too much about those last two bench slots.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 3:51 pm

If guys like Lastella or Villar or Iglesias are a lot cheaper than Profar I’d be ok with that.
Then there’s Pillar for the OF.

But the way AJ feels about Profar,and the fact he basically proved he was right to go after him this year.....I have a feeling he will find a way to re-sign him.
Which I would also be a OK with.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 6:59 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 3:51 pm

If guys like Lastella or Villar or Iglesias are a lot cheaper than Profar I’d be ok with that.
Then there’s Pillar for the OF.

But the way AJ feels about Profar,and the fact he basically proved he was right to go after him this year.....I have a feeling he will find a way to re-sign him.
Which I would also be a OK with.

 

 

Actually not really all that much cheaper.

Profar is on a $5.7MM deal coming off a 1.3 WAR in 2019.

Villar is on a $8,2MM deal .... poor 2020 but 2019 was a 4.0 WAR.

Pillar is on a $4.2MM deal ... good 2020 off a 1.5 WAR in 2019.

LaStella is on a $3MM deal but have to consider his a LHH 2B ... not really the bench option needed.

=====

No idea what Profar will come in at but should be less than signing both Pillar (OF only) and Villar (INF) .... if they can since not likely in position to be starters when potentially other teams may want them as starters.  Doubt any “bargain” signing with them.

Yuri Gurriel just signed a one year extension with a club option with Houston ... coming off a poor 2020 but was a key bat for them at 1B before. 2022 club option for $8MM and with incentives 2021 could be around $8MM. So, looking at Villar and Gurriel numbers ... $8MM for Profar would seem in the ballpark with the question being number of years which could lower the AVV for the guarantee.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 7:10 pm

Part of my thinking being the age difference.
Someone will give Profar a 3-5 year deal.
The others could be had for 1-2 year deals.

I’d prefer to keep Profar.....just considering other options.

Looks like other options may have to come via trade?

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 8:33 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 7:10 pm

Part of my thinking being the age difference.
Someone will give Profar a 3-5 year deal.
The others could be had for 1-2 year deals.

I’d prefer to keep Profar.....just considering other options.

Looks like other options may have to come via trade?

 

I see a trade (or two) over any costly FA ... have some pitching to move that may work since the return is only a ML quality bench option or two and pitching is always in demand.

On Profar, can’t see anyone giving him 4-5 year deal and even 3 years is a stretch in the coming FA market ... given his full body of work. Yes, a fine 2020 but has a lot of history to overcome. If someone really wants him maybe 2 years with a club option (buyout).

I am pretty sure all the interested GMs will be questioning why he is performing better for 60 games in 2020. Maybe he matured under the coaching of Easley ... maybe it is moving off 2B (where he struggled defensively) to LF .... maybe it is going to the NL ... maybe not being a key option in the line-up ... maybe ???? Too many questions without answers for a player who probably is not viewed as a cornerstone piece of any line-up.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 1, 2020, 9:58 am

When the Padres had a 5 (?) game losing streak earlier in the year incl getting swept by the D-backs, I wrote that they were a middle of the pack team & we should be thrilled to get the #8 seed by a tiebreaker.  Obviously things changed after that.  My take:

• 5 game losing streak (last 2 @LAD, 3 @Ariz) 8/16:  16th best team in MLB - Marginal playoff team
• Play of Grisham & Cronenworth through Aug:      12th best team in MLB  - Likely playoff team
• Pomeranz off IL + Trade for Rosenthal:                  8th best team in MLB - Strong playoff team
• Trade for Clevinger & others:                                   Top 4-5 team in MLB - Legit W.S. contenders

I think the way the Padres played the 1st 2 weeks after the Trade Deadline validated that the moves had made them an elite team.  No team could lose their 2 best SP for a playoff series, particularly a 3 game series, without it hurting their chances:

• "Now": Minus Lamet & Clev, Plus: Pham & A. Adams: 14th best team in MLB - "Weak" playoff team
• IF  Lamet OR Clevinger back:                                              7th best team in MLB - Strong playoff team
• IF Both back:                                                                 Top 4-5 team in MLB - Legit W.S. contenders

I put current playoff team between the mid & late August Pads:  loss of Lamet huge, but Pham back + Adams in pen does help.       If we can survive this round, we'll see where we're at next round.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 3, 2020, 5:58 am

This season has been a season of redemption.

Top 3 Offense in all of baseball...when have we done that before 1998?

Making the Playoffs

Winning a Playoff Series.

Winning in the Playoffs against the Cardinals.

Let's keep it going by at least knocking Kershaw out of his start before the 5th inning.

No matter how this goes I want that at a minimum.

 

GO PADRES!