Quote from Randy Manese on September 28, 2020, 10:13 pm

It looks like they need to make a move versus LHP.   Maybe Mejia or it could be Campusano or Ona.  Still think Nola starts at C with Pham in LF.  Might still go with Moreland at DH, as the veteran bat, however, if no confidence in Mejia, Campusano or Ona.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 3:38 am

Everyone’s making a big deal about the Cards 11 doubleheaders.

While that is a drain on their team it also means they played 22 Seven inning games.

Add that to the fact they only played 58 games and they have played at least 62 less innings than everyone else.

Give or take considering xtra inning games.

Thats Seven less games worth of innings.

Thats not an insignificant amount.....Maybe that doesn’t help them but it seems like it would at least make up for the double headers everyone is concerned about.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 6:48 am

So I guess it’s a good sign they haven’t announced the game 1 starter.

Even if they’re ready I think I’d prefer Davies to start the first game.

If it goes well and the offense gets a big lead you just roll with Davies and the Pen.

Then you have the other two for game 2 and 3 if needed.

Maybe even start Paddack for game 2 if we win the first game.

More rest can only help Lamet and Clev. and we need them more in the 2nd round.

Worst case is we start Lamet and he leaves with injury for the entire postseason.

Same with Clevinger.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 6:48 am

The only positive element in facing a LHP is that the Padres have a good offense from the "other" starters. Padres have a 108 wRC+ vs LHP which is 8th in the NL. Note that STL is at 97 .... 12th in the NL. Pomeranz, Strahm, Hill, and Morejon may be very important in late relief.

Padres problem is probably not with the starters .... game 1 vs Kim, then RHP. However, it may be an issue with the LH relief pitchers in crunch time. PH may be the need.

I would stick with the players that got them here ... Profar in LF, Pham at DH, Nola C, and Cronenworth at 2B. However that is a bench that can't hit LHP: Castro; Moreland; Garcia; Mateo (can't hit anyone). However, the starters would be weak with Hosmer (will not PH for him), Nola (not likely to PH for him), and Cronenworth (most likely to get PH for). Is there really a better option among Mejia, Ona, Campusano? ... probably not in 2020.

Still, could see dropping one of the 15 pitchers for the an extra RHH for PH duties ... probably Mejia just based on experience. The push back is based on the availability of Lamet and Clevinger ... if they can't go (or go deep into games) that extra RP may be needed for "match-ups" in the later innings.

=======

Side note: vs RHP the Padres have a 119 wRC+ (4th in NL) while STL is at 92 (11th in NL). So, Padres have an advantage going with 2-3 RHP to start games.

STL starters are very good ... so the Padres getting to them early may be critical and using Lamet/Clevinger/Davies with the relief corps to control a weak offense out of STL.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 7:06 am

The pitching is usually the key in a short set. STL has a 4.32 ERA AWAY while SD has a 3.57 ERA HOME but that has to be distilled down the starters. AWAY Kim (2.14) and Wainwright (3.00) are strong ... but their #3 is a question in Flahrety ... top fight pitcher but only 13 innings AWAY with an 9.45 ERA.

If Lamet - Clevinger - Davies are on top of their form against a weak hitting STL that could be enough to topple STL despite their quality starters.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 9:09 am

If you dig into the #'s, the Cardinals going with LH Kim in Game 1 definitely gives them their best chance to win a 3 game series.  It changes the complexion of the entire series, and potentially the Padres playoff roster.  If he were lined up for game 3, we would know that to face a LHSP we'd have to GET to game 3, which might incline Tingler to go with 15 P's with the health uncertainty around our #1 & #2 SP's.  But now, don't you have to put your best foot forward?  Even if that best foot is Mejia?

It's obvious the Cardinals see the holes in our lineup vs. LHP.  It goes way beyond just "Moreland & Castro".  Cronenworth and surprisingly, Nola, have not hit, gotten on base, or hit for any power AT ALL vs LHP this year in a small sample.   Hosmer had a great if injury marred short season, but was terrible again vs LHP (.204 /.245 / .367 in 49 AB ).  Grisham was OK vs LHP (less OBP & power), but lose an AB from him going from 1st to 9th.  Adding Mejia & DH'ing him, with Profar bumping JC at 2B is really the only way to fill 1 of the 3 "weak spots" this season vs LHP.  Nola did have more traditional splits in 2019 vs LHP, but JC & now clear pattern Hosmer likely to remain weak vs LHP.

JC likely defensively better than Profar who hasn't played at 2B recently, but I'd make the move at least in game 1 to get both Pham & Profar on the field to start the game vs LHP.  Have Mejia DH 7th, probably 2 AB vs Kim, then have options later in game:  could rotate Cronenworth in / Profar LF / Pham DH, or just insert Moreland.

Feel even more strongly now that despite SP health issues Padres need Mejia's RH bat (game 1 for sure, non-ideal but no other real option "free swinger" PH in games 2 & 3 vs LHRP), more than a 15th P (maybe no need).

Revising my Game 1 (vs LHP) lineup:

1. Profar (S)-2B, 2. Tatis, 3. Machado, 4. Myers, 5. Pham-LF, 6. Hosmer (L), 7. Mejia ("S")-DH, 8. Nola, 9. Grisham (L)

Yes, RH heavy string there 2-5, but they all crush LHP.   Hosmer is too weak vs LHP to put any higher.  GO PADRES!!!

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 9:32 am

I would definitely start Davies in 1 of the 1st 2 games.  This would make it possible (if we win game 1) that 1 of the injured SP's doesn't pitch, gets more rest, AND could be lined up for game 1 vs LAD.   There's no point in "saving" the healthy Davies.

I lean towards Game 2.  My idea there is games 1 and 3 could wind up being heavy pen use.  You're hoping for the steady Davies to give you 5-6 IP with </= 3 runs allowed in game 2, so the heavy pen use (if needed) is "sandwiched", not back to back days.

Davies would be on normal rest game 2, short a day in game 1, but had a short start his last time out, so OK either way.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 9:53 am

This may be a clue on how a manager may think in setting up his 28 man roster for a short 3 game series. MINN just announced its roster and went with 15 position players and 13 pitchers ... so down two pitchers up two position players.

If Padres follow their normal procedures .... probably will not announce their 28 until the very last moment tomorrow and that maybe be influenced by the health of Lamet and Clevinger being evaluated to the end.

Mejia makes the most sense to add besides being the RHH with the most ML history .... he does provide catching insurance and if better also another LHH option.

Maybe a question as to whether they add a second position player ... Ona or Campusano if for no other reason than a PH option if STL brings in a LH relief pitcher. Only need three starters ... so if Paddack and Richards go to the pen, do you really need that 11th and 12th RP? If you do, all may be already lost.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 10:06 am

Although Castro passed the concussion protocol after getting whacked in the facemask Sunday ... still has a sore jaw. Likely he is on the the 28 ... but might make a stronger case for Mejia and Campusano for maximum flexibility with them for catching / DH / and 1B vs LHP.