Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 10:13 am

Cardinals remind me of a "typical" Baltimore Ravens team in the past.  Great defense (P), but not built to come back from behind with their offense.  Cards are at/near NL worst in: HR, power, runs, Stolen base departments.   "OK" at OBP.

Pitching overall is a strength, especially BAA & run prevention.  But they're not really big "K" P's, and they do walk guys, so their: K/9, BB/9, and K/BB are all bottom tier of NL.   SD P's relatively are more hittable, but walk a lot fewer guys.

But their SP definitely worries me vs. our notoriously slow starting offense:

Name            GS (G)               ERA          WHIP              BAA            IP            K          BB

Kim                7  (8)               1.62            1.03              .197            39           24          12

Wainwright  10 (10)                3.15            1.05              .221            65.2       54           15

Flaherty         9 (9)                 4.91            1.21               .221            40.1       49           16

Flaherty more of a power/K P, Kim & Wainwright don't K many, but hard to square up.   Key to series even more than our SP health might be if Pads offense can get to their SP in say the 1st 5 innings to build leads the Cards aren't well equipped to come back against.

I'd rate our top 3 SP as slightly better if at full health.  Slightly worse given the health ?'s.  Significantly worse if 1 of 2 can't go, Much worse if both can't go.   Need our very superior offense to win this series.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 10:27 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 10:10 am

Looks as though HOU outdid MINN and went with +3 position players and -3 pitchers ... going only with 12 (still effectively 9 RP).

If you trust your SP are healthy and all going to give you 5-6+ IP, this makes sense.  Might be more matchup PH earlier in games than regular season.   Your 14th-15th best P aren't going to help you win a 3 game series unless every game goes 15 innings.

Pads have to be a little more conservative with our SP situation, but now I'm wondering if we see Mejia AND Greg Allen; for better CF/RF coverage than "just" Profar.    Greg Allen > Stammen?  unlikely, but Morejon?

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 10:29 am

Does anyone know if the 3-batter rule AND extra inning format rules from regular season carry over into playoffs?

I'm assuming they do.  Both would lessen the need for P's.  But if either reverts to last year rules, would want more P's.

Can you imagine Tony LaRussa or Bochy with 15 P's in the playoffs...

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 11:15 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 10:29 am

Does anyone know if the 3-batter rule AND extra inning format rules from regular season carry over into playoffs?

I'm assuming they do.  Both would lessen the need for P's.  But if either reverts to last year rules, would want more P's.

Can you imagine Tony LaRussa or Bochy with 15 P's in the playoffs...

Pretty sure it is the old extra inning format ... so could be long games. Not sure about the 3 batter minimum but think that does carry over.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 11:20 am

Houston, Minnesota, & Tampa Bay have all selected a player to their playoff roster... TODAY?!

There must not have been a Sept 15th "deadline" to be added to 40-man roster to be playoff eligible...

Padres ARE at 39... hmmm...

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 11:27 am

With the last few roster announcements ... every team seems to be going down at least two pitchers to add at least two position options. Maybe with the DH (not needing to take out pitchers) ... the value of PH (L v R), PR, defensive replacements becomes more strategic than a 14th/15th arm.

IF the Padres go to 13 pitchers:

SP (3): Lamet; Clevinger; Davies

LHRP (4): Pomeranz; Strahm; Hill; Morejon (can go long if needed)

RHRP (5): Rosenthal; Pagan; Johnson; Adams; Richards (can go long if needed)

Last slot to one of: Paddack (long if needed); Altavilla; Stammen; Patino; Perdomo

Over a three games set the 4 LHRP gives the Padres some better match-up options vs LHH as needed. Plus if they go with Paddack for that last slot they have three "long" options if Lamet or Clevinger go out early.

Excluding Altavilla, Stammen, Patino, and Perdomo seems justified.

EDIT after a look at Sept performances:

1. Both Stammen and Altavilla have been reasonable effective

2. Paddack has not so maybe Paddack should be bumped if he is not going to start

3. Morejon value is as a LHP option but both Stammen and Altavilla were better

Include Stammen and Altavilla and drop Paddack and Morejon?

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2020, 11:36 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 29, 2020, 11:20 am

Houston, Minnesota, & Tampa Bay have all selected a player to their playoff roster... TODAY?!

There must not have been a Sept 15th "deadline" to be added to 40-man roster to be playoff eligible...

Padres ARE at 39... hmmm...

Did not catch that. Were all the new playoff roster adds (and adds to the 40 man roster) at their team's alternate site (part of the "pool")? Maybe the Sept 15th requirement was really having to be part of the "60" not only the 40 man roster?

Can't really think of anyone on the Padres "60" but non-roster who I would be all that interested in adding.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2020, 11:43 am

Is anyone else as afraid of the Cardinals as I am?

I mean, these guys OWN us in the post season.

I realise different players but culture wise, Cards just win.

I'd be so happy with a victory against  St. Louis. Then bring on the Duds!

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 29, 2020, 12:02 pm

I am fairly positive the three batter rule still applies but the extra inning rule was only for the regular season.

As far as Davies.....I hope he starts game 1.

If we lose the first game I don't want him starting a potential elimination game.

Not that he isn't good...but he's a guy who has to really have his stuff "and" in many cases help from the Umpire in order to dominate.

Otherwise he can/will give up a few even in a good outing...whereas Clevinger and Lamet could give you a7 innings of shutout ball.

Which in an elimination game may be desperately needed.

Just my thinking....not sure what they will do?