Quote from JasonE135 on September 26, 2020, 3:35 pm

Thank freaking God that Clevinger has an impingement as opposed to a sprain as originally stated! At least he still has a future now. If true.

I am keeping my fingers crossed on Lamet. I am already over the playoffs. I don't even care what happens this year anymore. As long as both Lamet and Clevinger can come back healthy with no major surgery needed I am happy.

Quote from LynchMob on September 27, 2020, 11:38 am

Jeff Passan at ESPN:

All in all, from the 44 scenarios, here is the breakdown that illustrates what strong favorites the Cardinals and Brewers are to give the NL Central half of the league's playoff field (joining the Cubs and Reds):

• In 37 of 44 scenarios, St. Louis is in.

• In 33 of 44 scenarios, Milwaukee is in.

• In 14 of 44 scenarios, San Francisco is in.

• In 4 of 44 scenarios, Philadelphia is in.

The Reds and Marlins, in the meantime, are playing for seeding ... which could mean the difference between playing the Atlanta Braves (No. 2), Chicago Cubs (No. 3) and San Diego Padres (No. 4).

Cincinnati Reds (30-29)

Potential seeds: 5, 6 or 7

• If they win, the Marlins lose and the Cardinals lose: No. 5 seed

• If they win, the Marlins win and the Cardinals lose: No. 6 seed

• If they lose, the Cardinals lose and the Giants lose: No. 6 seed

• If they lose, the Cardinals lose, the Giants win and the Cardinals lose both doubleheader games: No. 6 seed

• All other scenarios: No. 7 seed

Miami Marlins (30-29)

Potential seeds: 5 or 6

• If they win and the Cardinals lose: No. 5 seed

• If they lose, the Reds lose, the Giants lose and the Cardinals lose: No. 5 seed

• If they lose, the Reds lose, the Giants win, the Cardinals lose Sunday and the Cardinals lose Game 1 Monday: No. 5 seed

• All other scenarios: No. 6 seed

In total, of the 44 permutations, the seeding breaks down as follows:

• Miami: No. 5 seed (22 times), No. 6 seed (22)

• St. Louis: No. 5 seed (17), No. 6 seed (2), No. 7 seed (5), No. 8 seed (13)

• Cincinnati: No. 5 seed (5), No. 6 seed (20), No. 7 seed (19)

• Milwaukee: No. 7 seed (20), No. 8 seed (13)

• San Francisco: No. 8 (14)

• Philadelphia: No. 8 (4)

On a day of such madness, it's nice to have some guarantees. And thankfully, amid the chaos, they do exist and bring at least a little bit of balance to a day where all you want to know is what this all means. For the following teams ...

• If the Cardinals win, they're in and the NL No. 5 seed.

• If the Yankees win, they're the AL No. 5 seed.

• If the Twins win, they're the AL No. 2 seed.

• If the Brewers win, they're in.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2020, 12:16 pm

Well without Burnes pitching for Milwaukee I don't like their chances.

Although it would be epic if somehow they pulled off the upset.

Almost as epic as them not beating them and then the Padres knocking the Dodgers out.

I don't want to be the one who says no matter what happens now this season has been a success...although that is true we all want more now!

I will say though that this is the first season in longer than 14 years that we have a team that we can honestly say is "good enough" to win it all.

On top of that we should be able to say the same for at least another couple seasons and with the right moves maybe longer.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2020, 1:53 pm

It looks like the Cards will be pitching Flaherty and Kim in the first two games with Wainwright in game 3 if necessary.

Kim has been really good however he's not faced very many good offenses.

He's faced Pitt 3 times....Cin 2 times...Mil 2 times...and the Cubs 1 time.

With the Cubs really the only team with a good offense.

So we'll see.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 28, 2020, 1:54 pm

Wow.  U-T alluded to a weakness I would not have caught.  Luckily, I THINK we have the solution.   In September:

Cronenworth:   .183  /  .275  /  .268

Profar:               .351  /  .380  /  .500

I knew JC had cooled off, but had NO idea it was to that extent.   Last 7 games have been even worse, and (only 55 AB) he has not hit LHP all year.  Profar has to be in the lineup somewhere; full stop.  Debate has been Pham or Moreland as DH, BUT both might be heating up JUST in time.   So what about both?  Profar @ 2B, Cronenworth sits.  Yes, stings for JC who we simply would not be here without... but I would play veteran hot hands vs rookie cold ones.  I might even lean to the vet if it was the other way around.   My lineup 1st 2 games (RHP):

1- Grisham (L), 2. Tatis, 3. Machado, 4. Hosmer (L), 5. Myers, 6. Moreland (L)-DH, 7. Pham-LF, 8. Nola, 9. Profar (S)-2B.

I would rate JC ahead of Profar @ 2B, but not THAT far.  Pham was clearly not moving well in OF early in year; think he got hurt diving for a ball or something.  Profar is so athletic, but his lack of experience makes me nervous out there.  Could bring JC in mid-late innings, with Profar to LF, & Pham or Moreland out.

vs a LHP creates some problems for us, including this little tidbit I was shocked by:  Nola this year has massively reverse splits:

109 AB vs RHP:  .312  / .389  / .541!   52 AB vs LHP:  .192  / .276  / .327   Small sample of course, but double edged sword:  Nola helps & is actually > Castro vs RHP.  But both guys have been bad vs LHP.  This, plus the obvious bench problem created if JC to bench = 3 LH bats on bench (Castro, JC, Garcia) with only Mateo as a "RH bat", have pushed me back to:

• Mejia as last man on playoff roster > Altavilla

Even if he can "only" hit RH, that's what might be needed off bench.  Can't see Pads starting him at C vs LHP, but..? vs LHP:

1-Profar (S), 2. Tatis, 3. Machado, 4. Hosmer (L), 5. Myers, 6. Pham-LF, 7. Mejia ("S")-DH, 8. Nola, 9. Grisham (L)

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 28, 2020, 4:56 pm

Cards just announced Game 1 starter is LH Kwang Hyun Kim... followed by Wainwright & Flaherty.  Interesting.

Pads clearly a little weaker vs LHP with Moreland, Cronenworth, and surprisingly (see last post) Nola with bad #'s vs LHP.

Makes sense for Cards to try to press their advantage.  Also makes me wonder if they're actually trying to force another RH position player onto the Pads roster... at the expense of a P; knowing the status of our #1 AND #2 SP are up in the air...

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2020, 5:27 pm

Tingler may sit Cronenworth against Kim.....I just see no way he doesn’t start against all RH starters.Afterall....it won’t be September anymore after the first game.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 28, 2020, 5:50 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2020, 5:27 pm

Tingler may sit Cronenworth against Kim.....I just see no way he doesn’t start against all RH starters.Afterall....it won’t be September anymore after the first game.

 

 

Curse of the tiny sample, but JC has not hit LHP all season.  In 55 AB:  .218 / .295 / .255

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2020, 6:16 pm

Well maybe I was wrong.Looks like Kim in game 1 and Wainwright in game 2.