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2020 In Season Trade ideas
#221 · August 29, 2020, 4:17 pm
Cassevell is reporting the PTNL will be a low level pitching prospect. Clearly a wide range of names can fill that bucket.
#223 · August 29, 2020, 4:55 pm
FENN, I really like the thinking re: Stammen. In the winter offseason pre-covid, I thought he or Pierce Johnson might get dealt to open up the "flexibility" of the pen & save a little $.
Everything different now re: Covid, short season, $, etc... so I don't see a team trading for Stammen alone... but what about pairing him with Lucchesi? Would be getting 2021 minimum salary SP controllable 4 more years, but only by absorbing some (let's just say half) of Stammen's 2021 salary & 22 buyout. Pretty good value: 1-2+ yr experienced consummate pro vet RP; could "re-flip" next year if he bounces back. Primary value of Lucchesi is 2021 @ minimum salary. Maybe 2022 as 1st year arb.
But to??? For??? Texas surely shooting higher than this for Lance Lynn, but Lucchesi WOULD backfill... part of the deal? Offsets some $ on Pads end...
#224 · August 29, 2020, 5:26 pm
I have been blowing off this speculation / rumor since it emerged about a week ago ... made no sense to be from the seller's side and created a bit of a future problem on the buying side as I saw it. However, in the pre-game it came up again with Miller - Sweeney - Pomeranz.
Deal: MILW trades LHRP Hader to SD for ??????????
MILW and SD do have a history on trades and that always helps making deals ... so there is that.
Not sure why MILW (a contender) would deal one of the best LHRP in MLB with 3 more years of control (in arbitration).
Not sure SD could afford to pay Hader in those arbitration years (very big money) with their current payroll structure and the coming arbs for Tatis, Lamet, Paddack.
MILW may want to clear some future payroll but still would ask for some elite prospects.
Would be a tough deal to pull off.
#225 · August 29, 2020, 5:47 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on August 29, 2020, 4:55 pmFENN, I really like the thinking re: Stammen. In the winter offseason pre-covid, I thought he or Pierce Johnson might get dealt to open up the "flexibility" of the pen & save a little $.
Everything different now re: Covid, short season, $, etc... so I don't see a team trading for Stammen alone... but what about pairing him with Lucchesi? Would be getting 2021 minimum salary SP controllable 4 more years, but only by absorbing some (let's just say half) of Stammen's 2021 salary & 22 buyout. Pretty good value: 1-2+ yr experienced consummate pro vet RP; could "re-flip" next year if he bounces back. Primary value of Lucchesi is 2021 @ minimum salary. Maybe 2022 as 1st year arb.
But to??? For??? Texas surely shooting higher than this for Lance Lynn, but Lucchesi WOULD backfill... part of the deal? Offsets some $ on Pads end...
Texas needs about everything but really wants some bats to put around Gallo .. and I would assume now not in a few years when Gallo becomes a FA. Not sure the Padres have that chip(s).
Lynn is one of the top arms in play and is controlled for 2021 at not an unreasonable salary. So, a bit more will be needed to get Texas to deal him now ... they still can next winter.
Maybe some combo of Trammell, Mejia (they do need catching), Naylor in a package. Probably will require a SP prospect .. quality based on which position players the prefer.
I have a good idea what I would give easily for Lynn ... not so sure Texas would see it the same way.
One year is not the same as another and each team is different but (and my memory is foggy) but did not CINN effectively trade Trammell to SD to get Bauer RHP with one year control? Note that a fringe pitcher and Puig (somewhat over the hill) went to Cleveland from CINN.
So for Lynn ... Trammell and Mejia might be the right size ... both upside, both control, both low cost. Can adjust around that base player in player out but keeping near the level. Remember, not sure what any other team might have to offer but Trammell is still viewed as a Top 100 (Top 50?) prospect.
#226 · August 29, 2020, 10:16 pm
Assuming that Texas didn't burn Lynn out by allowing him to throw 110 pitches tonight, looks like he would have maybe 4-5 starts left in the regular season with the next start being Thursday or Friday. His real value will be in the playoffs and next year. For those reasons, I could see overpaying, to some degree, with a package similar to what you stated but including a decent pitching prospect (Morejon/Baez?). Tampa Bay probably won't overpay and neither will Atlanta. Don't think the White Sox have enough depth to make a trade but the Yankees might but with their injuries not sure they can give up talent now. Toronto may be the dark horse. I think Lynn will definitely be traded but maybe not to us - too many suitors to jump over. Further, I'd try to get some position players back from Texas in the deal - Trevino, Solak, Choo, Todd Frazier - all would fit that profile.
Forget about Hader! Not coming to San Diego.
#227 · August 30, 2020, 5:27 am
Note on Lynn .... and one of his appealing points ... he has pitched a little over 30 consecutive games with 100+ pitches .. so a workhorse who goes out for every start and goes deeper than most in the games. That consecutive run is the longest in a decade since VERLANDER. So, number of pitches shouldn’t be an issue.
Just a bonus element on a guy with one of the best ERAs in MLB this year.
#228 · August 30, 2020, 6:36 am
I do think the Padres have a very good chance on landing Lynn even with a load of other suitors. Padres seem “motivated” and have the depth of trade chips to construct alternative scenarios to create a package that works for Texas and SD.
Other suitors may be active pursuers but may not have the prospects or maybe be adverse to dealing their top prospects and then fall way off with the next level and out of contention.
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Probably would not want to complicate a deal by adding a position player from Texas ... and having to offer more if the player is any good.
Padres are currently in 2nd place in MLB for OPS ... so a bat is not critical. Was interested in Frazier but with the apparent emergence of France as a RHH force ... and he has the same profile as Frazier .. pass.
#229 · August 30, 2020, 8:15 am
Looking at last trade deadline deal of Bauer to the Reds ... sort of a template of the level of players that could be involved considering both Bauer and Lynn are upper rotation pitchers with an additional year of control.
1. CINN gave up: Trammell (#17 MLB prospect) then two “fillers” in AA LHP Scott Moss (now #22 in the Cleveland prospect list) and Yasiel Puig who would be a FA at the end of 2019. So, basically gave up one elite prospect and little else.
2. CLEVE got: Franmil Reyes (at the time a very good POTENTIAL DH) then from CINN Moss and Puig and then SD added Logan Allen (decent LHP prospect) and Victor Nova (a rookie ball INF not in the Top 30). So, basically they went volume with 5 players but none rated as “elite” at the time (Reyes has changed that thinking) but none of the others are making (or going to make) any impact. CLEVE did same some 2020 money.
So a SD deal with Texas may come down to the inclusion of an “elite” prospect vs. multiple “near elite” prospects. Texas maybe be in greater need of the “multiple” (Cleveland’s route) and seem to want ML ready (or near) hitters. Preller is likely to not want to move one of the “elite” prospects (Gore, Patino, Abrams, Campusano) although Texas is probably initially asking for one of them. We will see on Monday.
Would find it hard to believe that Texas would not move Lynn (with only one year) for some multi-player combination of Mejia, Naylor, Baez, Morejon, Trammell, Arias, Miller, Marcano. Note Trammell is the highest ranked now at #60 in MLB. The parts are there ... Preller is motivated ... and only Trammell appears to have a clear shot at a future with the Padres (in LF replacing Pham in 2022).
#230 · August 30, 2020, 8:45 am
Padres acquire Mitch Moreland from the Red Sox for Hudson Potts and Jeisson Rosario.
So we got our DH!