Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2020, 9:12 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 8:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2020, 6:57 am

Noted that Torrens got into yesterday's game ... so apparently no concussion issue, good.

Makes the Eickhoff move less understandable unless it was request by Eickhoff to just go home.

At start of season, Eickhoff was 1st name/guy up (which happened for a day) on the Taxi squad.  Now Patino, Morejon, Baez all up and Lucchesi is down and 1st up on the taxi squad.  Decent depth option, but buried in Pads system.

Guessing that he realized/was told he wouldn't be "Taxi" this road trip, so he requested it hoping to latch on somewhere else.  Likely to happen somewhere.  Opens the roster spot in advance for a possible Trade.

Except I don’t think he was released but outrighted to El Paso ... so (unless given some special dispensation) he can’t seek another organization since he is still under contract. As a minor league signing ... probably a FA after the season.

So, if he was not released and there is space on the 60, to me still question ...not an important one, but still a question.

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2020, 9:30 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 8:43 am

As it appears that the Padres are in the driver’s seat for a playoffs spot and probably a #4 seed and considering they only have 23 games after the trade deadline ... that should change the nature of the targets in any deal.

Basically, if they are in the playoffs ... does adding anyone for those last 23 games have any value? Then, playoffs are first short and then would expect the players used (especially in round 1) are limited.

That suggests a “rental” is very limited value for the Padres and keep in mind that no guarantee that add actually performs in the new environment. Not worth trading a major asset?

Kind of right... Preller does have the "luxury" of being able to wait til the last minute; through the Colorado series basically, to do something, because even with the 1 out away from being ( badly, lopsidedly) swept at home by one of worst teams in AL, Pads are still 93% "playoff likely" in relatively weak NL.  So it's fair to argue that guy "won't help" us make playoffs.

.... BUT:  1)  That series shows how badly we could use an arm, and 2) the "value" of the acquisition is IN the playoffs, and that value even if "just" a rental could be HUGE.   I don't care AT ALL about control in the situation we're in.  Not talking #5 starter, middle reliever, or LOOGY here.  Looking for regular contributor on a playoff team; easily one of best 26 (28).  Push "not ready yet top 10 system SP prospect being used as RP" (insert name here) back to Alt site.

The shorter control of a guy gained this year is IN OUR FAVOR from a trading standpoint; we don't have to give up as much, AND we're vastly more likely to make a multi-game playoff.   As a team that hasn't gone to the playoffs in 14 years,  WHYYYY are we "debating" whether it's worth someone like Jeisson Roasario or less for a guy like Rosenthal?!?

I don't get the mentality; we HAVE to shift to "trying to win NOW in MLB" not "Farm preservation & building" that we've been in nonstop (except for Preller's debut) for the last decade+

 

If it were Rosario (or less) for Rosenthal there probably would be a deal. Pretty safe to suggest that KC is holding out for a lot more until the last minute since Rosenthal maybe be the best closer on the market (even as a rental) and almost every team could use him. He will get dealt to someone ... so KC is not in a hurry and will try to squeeze out the most they can.

Preller was quoted yesterday that the building of the farm system ... in part ... was to get to this place and deal prospects for veterans in a playoff run. So, he agrees in concept.

What we can’t know is what veteran trade targets are in discussion and which prospects are the targets of the other team (at least for now). If Arias is the piece everyone wants in a trade ... Preller may be willing to deal him but for which option and who else is part of the deal. Arias straight up for Rosenthal or Arias and Rosario for Lynn?

Down to the last moment for seller I would think.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 28, 2020, 10:38 am

Lynn is scheduled to start against the Dodgers in LA tomorrow.  If a trade is going down for Lynn, probably it will be today, so he gets that start in Colorado, maybe even after Davies.  Lynn has another year of control and his salary next year is not prohibitive - basically a push when you let Richards go.  Texas has few promotable pitchers in their farm system, so my guess is they want controllable arms vice hitters, like Morejon, Lucchesi, etc.  vice Arias and J Rosario, the latter was probably going to have to repeat Hi A this year after hitting only .242 and striking out over 110 times without hardly any power (further, he has to be protected as a Rule 5 piece this December).  If it is a multiplayer deal, then see some of our hitting prospects involved as primary targets.  Don't think we are in the mix for Bauer (FA to be) or Clevinger (2 more years of control), the other two quality starters being mentioned as available, who seem to put their own interests over their teams' .

We seem to have a good working relationship with KC, but Rosenthal will be in high demand.  Probably not willing to do both - SP and RP - or have the opportunity.  Less costly as a rental, but KC won't be giving him away like Boston did with Workman.  See that deal happening at the trading deadline but don't have a feeling whether or not we'll be in it.

My prediction is Lynn or nothing.   We'll see if Preller can make something happen at a "reasonable" cost.  Remember prospects are still just prospects until they perform, which could be 4-5 years down the road after TJ surgery, like Fried.  We tend to overvalue our prospects as desirable trade chips (Philly still waiting for Enyel de los Santos to develop) so "overpaying" is like second-guessing as to why a relief pitcher wasn't brought in when we don't know the health of that pitcher on that particular day.

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 10:46 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2020, 9:12 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 8:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2020, 6:57 am

Noted that Torrens got into yesterday's game ... so apparently no concussion issue, good.

Makes the Eickhoff move less understandable unless it was request by Eickhoff to just go home.

At start of season, Eickhoff was 1st name/guy up (which happened for a day) on the Taxi squad.  Now Patino, Morejon, Baez all up and Lucchesi is down and 1st up on the taxi squad.  Decent depth option, but buried in Pads system.

Guessing that he realized/was told he wouldn't be "Taxi" this road trip, so he requested it hoping to latch on somewhere else.  Likely to happen somewhere.  Opens the roster spot in advance for a possible Trade.

Except I don’t think he was released but outrighted to El Paso ... so (unless given some special dispensation) he can’t seek another organization since he is still under contract. As a minor league signing ... probably a FA after the season.

So, if he was not released and there is space on the 60, to me still question ...not an important one, but still a question.

Weird.  Yesterday on Transactions on Pads site it said he had elected FA on 8/26.  Now it doesn't say that; just outrighted on 8/24.  Maybe just anticipating needing a 40-man spot for a trade & wanting to retain Eickhoff as depth; better chance now vs. right at deadline when a trading out team might be more likely to claim him to backfill?

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 28, 2020, 11:04 am

One way the Pham injury hurts even more is it makes Myers indispensable.

We've been discussing ways to rid ourselves of Wils' contract for two years.

I had a feeling he would respond this season and regain value.

Just thinking about what it would take to get Clevinger I was thinking about Clev.'s need for outfielders.

"If" Pham was healthy and producing it would have allowed us to include Myers,even if paying some of his contract.

They want help for "this year" and I'm sure also young and controllables.

Myers(immediate OF help),Arias(insurance for Lindor leaving),Weathers(future rotation piece),pick one more outfielder(Ornelas,Olivares,Ona,Head)

I would even think of including Trammell if necessary maybe with a prospect coming back from Clev.

Clevinger is #1/#2 starter controlled for "two" seasons beyond this one and Clev could just wait and trade after this season so the cost would be high.

But man....he could be the difference maker in the Playoffs and into the next couple years.

Lamet/Clevinger/Paddack/Gore/Davies in 2021 would allow Patino to start in AAA or as a 7th/8th inning guy next year.

Or replace Gore with Patino and Gore starts in AAA if not deemed ready.

Can you tell I want Clevinger?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 11:18 am

Randy, nice catch on Lance Lynn timing... I don't know if they could pull that off that quickly, COVID clear him, and then get him (how?) to Colorado to go tomorrow?  Seems more likely if he is a possible/likely trade Texas just pulls him from that start?

Lynn is going to be very expensive both in prospect/s and $$.  Even just 23 games, say 5 starts, would be around 1.5 MM plus 8 MM next year.  At this year's #'s so far in 4 games, he's "worth it", but he is WAYYY above his extremely consistent career norms: 1.59 ERA & 0.86 WHIP vs 3.52 ERA & 1.29 WHIP ... i.e. highly likely to regress.

I would love to get that steady reliable workhorse inning eater to stabilize rotation now, but also provide much needed IP & consistency next season, when there won't be many SP capable of giving 200 IP after this weird no minors year.  He seems to be benefiting from the late start / short season, but my own opinion is Preller won't go there.  Fowler has telegraphed pretty clearly that $/cash flow is an issue now & next season.  I think there will be more "value" in the offseason to signing "Garrett Richards", "Corey Kluber" or another FA (many expensive arb guys are going to get non tendered this offseason) to a low base / high incentive "show me" 1 year deal.

In other words, I think there's going to be a big disparity between "legacy" existing contracts & guys with already established high arbitration salaries vs. 2020 FA (including Arb eligible guys who are non tendered b/c their $ figure is "too high" for the bad 2020 market) that are the ones who will really have to deal with the weak market next season.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 11:41 am

I missed before that Trevor Rosenthal has performance bonuses of 2.5 MM!  >His base salary of 2 MM.  Even prorated it's significant $, but maybe split with Royls?  Anyway, think of his full contract as being more like 4 MM....

Quote from Randy Manese on August 28, 2020, 11:44 am

Certainly, the world revolves around money and what realistically can be done.  What if I was one of those multi-millionaire investors who see a growing market for Padres revenue in the future, given the youth and excitement potential of this team in this decade that seems to be going national?  MLB and ESPN are talking about us everyday as one of the most exciting teams in the majors.  Would I be willing to take short term loss for a longer term gain?  Could it be that there are investors out there that are willing to refresh the existing Padres' resources base so we become more competitive for these higher end FA or trade targets so we may be in the next lower echelon of teams behind  LA, NY, Boston and Chicago that are competitive every year - like St. Louis or Atlanta, for example.

From a business perspective, no one in his/her right mind would have invested in the Padres several years ago, but now that we are in an upward trend, could we see some additional investment?  If the team went public, like the Chargers did a long time ago for a short period of time, I'd be interested in owning a chunk of the Padres just like I did in buying a brick for Petco just to say I'm all in!  That's probably all I can afford - a brick - but the Padres are all we have and the fans would be jamming the stadium this year had it not been for COVID.  It's nice to have a dream and to have a successful hometown baseball team after so long without one.

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2020, 12:08 pm

Should be interesting to see the haul Texas gets for Lynn (from the Padres or any team). A lot of contenders no doubt but not all have the magnitude of assets to get to the top of any deal. Padres may have the deeper array of quality prospects ... so would not rule them out.

Texas has a major part of their roster going FA (or will decline options) ... most are expensive and underperforming. Guessing they may be looking for the future with prospects (getting to the ML soon) and maybe willing to deal Lynn at peak value (performing very well and controlled in 2021). They could use quality at a number of positions.

Just guessing .... maybe asking for at least one “elite” prospect (maybe two) plus ... at least until the deadline. Would expect they focus on Campusano and a SP (Quantrill or Morejon?) knowing they will not get Gore or Patino. Not likely to get that from Preller who may offer more like Trammell / Baez plus a secondary piece.

Who knows who Texas really covets ... and will another team make a Gore type offer?