Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2020, 3:16 pm

Listen to the D.Smith show and there was some discussion about Preller’s post game interview when he answered a question from one of the Spanish speaking reporters in Spanish. About trade deadline objectives he stated the expected: RP, veteran bat, and SP ... but for the SP comment he clearly reference “top of the rotation” type arm. I suppose we all have different interpretations of that. Don’t think anything was lost in translation.

No givens and he still balances need and cost ... but Lynn may be in play. Could Bauer or Clevinger be potential targets?

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separately a second hand report that Preller “implied” that Gore could also be in the picture for September. “Could” is a pretty safe word but at least he is in the picture.

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2020, 8:41 am

Saw some comments from Fowler that made it clear that 2021 finances will be difficult with paying full salaries for the season but with a very good chance the attendance at the ballparks will be limited coupled with the 2020 losses.

Does imply that any trade deadline move will not come with a large 2021 contract commitment. I can extrapolate that to resigning of Richards, Yates, or Profar (anywhere near their current salaries) is not in the cards. Might also put some question on a non-tender of Pham ($9MMish). Fowler also implied that they are not looking at rentals.

Not sure how that combo works ... unless there is no movement. I guess some subjectivity as to how large is large for next year and the organizations view of adding that contract being covered by displacing a current large contracts.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 27, 2020, 10:30 am

The full salaries for Richards, Yates and Profar were approximately 8.5, 7.1 and 5.7 million, respectively.  In my opinion, Profar is definitely not coming back since we seem to have a reliable 2b man.  Richard and Yates are a "maybe" but it would have to be team friendly, i.e., not much more than what they would have made this year given these are on the low side of veteran starting pitchers and closers.  Given that scenario, each will probably seek greener pastures.  I think we are underestimating the impact of a healthy Pham and his salary, after arbitration, would seem to be reasonable given the going rate of OF producers of his ilk the last couple of years.  I think he stays.  However, many others on the arbitration table, Hedges (currently 3M), Garcia (1.5), Perdomo (.95M), Lucchesi and Almonte may not get qualifying offers or get traded before then.  On the other hand, expect to retain Davies, Strahm, Lamet and Pagan all of whom will probably get significant raises.  So if the 3 FA come off the books, looking to free up around 21 million.  The gains/losses from arbitration may be slightly higher on the gain to payroll side but not eat up the 21 million - maybe 6-7.  (Also off the books, finally, is the money owed to Hector Olivera, which was 8.5 million!).  Bottom line is if minor league player pool pay is shrunk from having to pay 230 vice 150 and revenues slightly higher because of growing national awareness/interest in San Diego Padres brand, can see them making a move to add a 15-18 Million player to the roster (or a combination of players) even though attendance at home may be limited.  They are not that far away from being sustainably competitive over a 162 game schedule and one OF or one SP or one RP (or a combination of these) could further push our young team into the national spotlight.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 27, 2020, 11:50 am

I would expect,depending on how well we do the rest of this season,that attendance and interest in this team will be at an all time high next season.

With no one able to attend this year...the success and excitement this team brings...the change to brown etc,the sky's the limit for local revenue in 2021.

It just depends on how much Ownership wants/needs to lower payroll next year.

On one hand it makes sense that they would....but is just the $21 mil coming off the books enough?

Would they want to build on the momentum and talent currently on this team and "go for it" while the going is good and

spend some of that?

It's going to be one of the more interesting off seasons for all of these reasons.

One final thought....does the thinking change at all if the DH is here to stay?

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2020, 12:15 pm

Let’s say I am very skeptical that the Padres will (can afford to) come near their 2020 payroll plan of $150MM (think their all time high).

I doubt any of the arbitration decisions will push the payroll up much .. not after a “shortened season” and in Pham’s case a totally unproductive season. So a “natural” starting should be just over $120MM.

Padres may look to “upgrade” LF (over Pham, Profar) at a lower cost ... that should not be too hard and they have the trade chips to work that while getting longer control. May that savings could allow them to upgrade a second OF/DH option if not fond of France / Naylor.

Time to go for broke with Lamet, Paddack, Davies, Gore (L), Patino, Quantrill, Morejon.

I go with a “cap” of $120MM.

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2020, 12:23 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 27, 2020, 11:50 am

I would expect,depending on how well we do the rest of this season,that attendance and interest in this team will be at an all time high next season.

With no one able to attend this year...the success and excitement this team brings...the change to brown etc,the sky's the limit for local revenue in 2021.

It just depends on how much Ownership wants/needs to lower payroll next year.

On one hand it makes sense that they would....but is just the $21 mil coming off the books enough?

Would they want to build on the momentum and talent currently on this team and "go for it" while the going is good and

spend some of that?

It's going to be one of the more interesting off seasons for all of these reasons.

One final thought....does the thinking change at all if the DH is here to stay?

 

The downward pressure on cash for 2020 lingers but the real unknown (and maybe greatest 2021 cash issue) is not being allowed to have  filled stands ... if only 20% of capacity that is going to drain cash. Will not know that until the last moment ... so not going to commit to a larger payroll than they have to until that become a known.

Don’t think the DH makes a big difference in payroll strategy ... and most teams these days have adopted the rotating DH to “rest” starters ... so the impact may be more on the structure / quality of the bench.

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2020, 12:47 pm

Should note that the non-tender deadline is the first week in December (normally) ... that will be before much is know about attendance in 2021.

Of course, can still tender ... get a deal or arbitration ... then cut the player in ST for a % of the total. Still money out the door though.

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 8:43 am

As it appears that the Padres are in the driver’s seat for a playoffs spot and probably a #4 seed and considering they only have 23 games after the trade deadline ... that should change the nature of the targets in any deal.

Basically, if they are in the playoffs ... does adding anyone for those last 23 games have any value? Then, playoffs are first short and then would expect the players used (especially in round 1) are limited.

That suggests a “rental” is very limited value for the Padres and keep in mind that no guarantee that add actually performs in the new environment. Not worth trading a major asset?

Kind of right... Preller does have the "luxury" of being able to wait til the last minute; through the Colorado series basically, to do something, because even with the 1 out away from being ( badly, lopsidedly) swept at home by one of worst teams in AL, Pads are still 93% "playoff likely" in relatively weak NL.  So it's fair to argue that guy "won't help" us make playoffs.

.... BUT:  1)  That series shows how badly we could use an arm, and 2) the "value" of the acquisition is IN the playoffs, and that value even if "just" a rental could be HUGE.   I don't care AT ALL about control in the situation we're in.  Not talking #5 starter, middle reliever, or LOOGY here.  Looking for regular contributor on a playoff team; easily one of best 26 (28).  Push "not ready yet top 10 system SP prospect being used as RP" (insert name here) back to Alt site.

The shorter control of a guy gained this year is IN OUR FAVOR from a trading standpoint; we don't have to give up as much, AND we're vastly more likely to make a multi-game playoff.   As a team that hasn't gone to the playoffs in 14 years,  WHYYYY are we "debating" whether it's worth someone like Jeisson Roasario or less for a guy like Rosenthal?!?

I don't get the mentality; we HAVE to shift to "trying to win NOW in MLB" not "Farm preservation & building" that we've been in nonstop (except for Preller's debut) for the last decade+

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 28, 2020, 8:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2020, 6:57 am

Noted that Torrens got into yesterday's game ... so apparently no concussion issue, good.

Makes the Eickhoff move less understandable unless it was request by Eickhoff to just go home.

At start of season, Eickhoff was 1st name/guy up (which happened for a day) on the Taxi squad.  Now Patino, Morejon, Baez all up and Lucchesi is down and 1st up on the taxi squad.  Decent depth option, but buried in Pads system.

Guessing that he realized/was told he wouldn't be "Taxi" this road trip, so he requested it hoping to latch on somewhere else.  Likely to happen somewhere.  Opens the roster spot in advance for a possible Trade.