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2020 In Season Trade ideas
#111 · August 22, 2020, 2:07 pm
Going out of town Monday AM, so here's a 2 days early hitting vs pitching for Pads in MLB@ "halfway point" of season:
HITTING: OPS: 5th OBP: 6th BA: 17th BB: 4th HR: 3rd SB: 2nd
PITCHING: ERA: 18th WHIP: T-10th BAA: T-12th BB: 19th K: T-6th HR: T-24th
Red = Pure "quantity" stat; so affected un/favorably by the relatively high # of games played by Padres vs. some other teams.
Still pretty crystal clear: Our Offense even with relative weakness at: C, LF, & DH is still very good compared to rest of League.
I didn't suss out SP vs RP, but it's very obvious that our SP is a strength, while our RP is a weakness.
There is nowhere to go but up from within by the existing C trio. There is upside potential > what Pham provided in LF/DH and others so far have done @ DH in-house mostly in the form of: Naylor, Profar, & France. Perfect solutions? No. Glaring hole preventing or limiting a playoff run? No.
Fangraphs has the 16-12 Padres with an almost 90% chance of making the playoffs, and an almost 5% chance of winning the World Series! Obviously it's an asterick filled weird season, but injuries and the current Bullpen are what would derail those chances. Given the very low trade cost for Philly to obtain 2 established but not elite MLB RP's, and the fact the Pads HAVEN'T made the playoffs since 2006, Preller HAS to acquire at least one RP, even if he has to "overpay" to do so! I won't forgive ownership if they're willing to spend 62 MM in this prorated year (50MM Active prorated + 12 MM Dead $ & Pom signing bonus), but won't spend (i.e. "lose") 1-2 MM more and/or a prospect to lock down a playoff spot in an anything goes year that's very favorable to our team, and less of a crapshoot than a single wildcard game!
#112 · August 22, 2020, 2:19 pm
It's worth noting that Lucchesi is apparently available in trade. The quick hook may have had a very significant trade value purpose by not only giving whoever Joey plays for an extra control season, but far more importantly: he's VERY close now to being below the MLB service time threshold for qualifying as a Super-Two next year. Assuming a trading team immediately recalls him, he would be minimum salary rest of 2020, but also 2021. HUGELY important & attractive with the financial hit all teams are going to take next season...
Personally, I'd prefer to hang onto him as SP depth in 2021 &/or repurposed out of pen. But if he were involved in a "missing piece" trade particularly for bullpen help, I would be OK with that. Could wind up being an offseason trade talk name/possibility.
#113 · August 22, 2020, 2:23 pm
If we are still thinking about random hypothetical moves involving KC, I still would like us to be bold and get Rosenthal (with an extension) and Merrifield. It's going to hurt in terms of prospects, but it solves a very short and next year or so problem. We can get a good RP and OF, and next year don't have to force bringing up Abrams or Trammell but give them more time to develop. It also gives us insurance at 2b if, for some unforeseen reason, Cronenworth tanks or is injured. Merrifield won't be FA until 2023 and is still performing at a very high level. What will it take - something we'll cringe about but prospects are still prospects until they perform. I can see maybe 4 or 5 players in this deal from the Padres side - some on the current 28-man roster and others on the 60. Probably will never happen and we'll just get a useful but low cost arm just to finish out the season, but that's why we have these kinds of venues to express our thoughts and dreams.
#114 · August 22, 2020, 2:34 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on August 22, 2020, 2:23 pmIf we are still thinking about random hypothetical moves involving KC, I still would like us to be bold and get Rosenthal (with an extension) and Merrifield. It's going to hurt in terms of prospects, but it solves a very short and next year or so problem. We can get a good RP and OF, and next year don't have to force bringing up Abrams or Trammell but give them more time to develop. It also gives us insurance at 2b if, for some unforeseen reason, Cronenworth tanks or is injured. Merrifield won't be FA until 2023 and is still performing at a very high level. What will it take - something we'll cringe about but prospects are still prospects until they perform. I can see maybe 4 or 5 players in this deal from the Padres side - some on the current 28-man roster and others on the 60. Probably will never happen and we'll just get a useful but low cost arm just to finish out the season, but that's why we have these kinds of venues to express our thoughts and dreams.
About 2-3 weeks ago before Cronenworth emerged from nowhere as a legit Rookie of the Year candidate, I was convinced that Merrifield was "the missing piece", and that we should do anything we had to except Gore to get him...
.... I've completely backed off that with JC's emergence and the bullpen situation. But who knows... his versatility AND consistent offensive production would be >> than Profar so far. I do believe even with the uncertainty it would take a top 100 prospect plus more to get him... TOUGH since our top 100 are in our plans, and the "just outside" top 100 is Morejon who looks like our #5 SP now. We'll see...
#115 · August 22, 2020, 2:56 pm
With the injury to Pham, could we not, get both Whit and Rosenthal. Whit can play CF, allowing Grisham to move to LF. And have Whit bat lead off.
1. Whitfield - CF
2. Grisham - LF
3. Tatis - SS
4. Machado - 3B
5. Hosmer - 1B
6. Myers - RF
7. Cronenworth - 2B
8. Profar or France - DH
9. Hedges - C
#116 · August 22, 2020, 3:33 pm
Would like to get Merrifield ... very unlikely given how much KC's owner and GM love him as the current face of the franchise. If they did, a big ticket consider control, contract, and all-star level performance.
One disclaimer on Merrifield as on OF ... not all that good defensively and probably would go to LF. Defense stats are "questionable" and the scouting reports on Grisham suggest he should be in LF ... BUT year to date:
dWAR: Grisham 3.8 (which is #1 among OF) while Merrifield is -1.2 (#37).
UZR/150: Grisham 24.1 (#5) while Merrifield is -23.2 (#60)
Sure maybe some skewing from small sample size but enough of a difference to suggest Merrifield is not a clear cut CF option.
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Padres wanted to win it all in 2015 ... traded Turner and Fried ... did not work out for the Padres. Not that I would not trade prospects but not roll the dice and move "elite" prospects.
#117 · August 22, 2020, 3:44 pm
However the Merrifield discussion made me think of the concept in moneyball of going away from the masses for an advantage.
IF every other team is chasing down RP ... slim as the market is .... should Preller go the opposite way and ride the pen and upgrade DH/LF (maybe a big move) and just try to push in more offense ... rely on the top line SP ... and gamble on the RP? If no RP quality is really there ... why force the move?
As it stands, LF/DH is: Profar; Naylor; France; Garcia; Mateo assuming the other regulars are in their given positions. Not compelling playoff quality for TWO offensive positions. Make a significant upgrade to only one and probably the entire line-up benefits. Might be easier to deal for an impact bat in this environment ... maybe two if one is a LF.
Looks as though every team (except LAD) will have weak spots ... just the nature of the game.
#118 · August 22, 2020, 5:01 pm
For discussion purposes, if you look at the team that ended the 2014 season, there was not a heckuva lot of talent at the major league level to trade going into the 2015 season. If upper management said try to get us competitive at that time, all Preller had to trade was prospects. I think where we are today is an apples to oranges comparison, although I understand not wanting to trade Top 100 prospects that may be equivalent to a Turner or a Fried, both of whom were the only true prospects to emerge over the next 5 years from those late 2014/early 2015 trades.
Bottom line is that trades are a roll of the dice and you have to live with what you do in the hopes that what you are doing will at least offset what you are trading away over time or for a World Series (like the Cubs did when trading away G Torres and E Jimenez). Doubt we will get Merrifield but I like him as a hitter and LF who can play CF better than anyone else we have after Grisham. Maybe time to revisit moneyball - loved the movie although inaccurate with many of the facts involving the timing of player acquisitions, etc.
#119 · August 22, 2020, 10:04 pm
I'm glad Urias is playing well for Milwaukee because that trade would otherwise be a steal for the Padres. It is what you hope for when you make a trade - both teams benefit. Similarly, when we traded Renfroe and Edwards to Tampa for Pham and Cronenworth, who would have thought that Cro would be outperforming both Pham and Renfroe? Still yet, Tampa is in 1st place, so I think both teams got what they wanted - Renfroe has played superior defense for them with occasional bursts of awesome HR power. My point is not to be so quick to judge trades until they play out. We seem to have the makings of a good team in 2020 and are well-positioned for the next 5 years to be very very competitive. Enjoy these days and hope that whatever moves are made or not made help in the long run.
#120 · August 22, 2020, 11:47 pm
The reason I dont see the pen being upgraded, is unless you are trading for a stud, will that pitcher make that big a difference. IF Pom will be fine and ready to go next weekend, I see the Padres standing pad with the bullpen, especially if Morejon can kick butt tomorrow (looks like 60 pitches so hopefully 4 strong innings or so)
IF the Padres were going to do an upgrade, one name that comes to mind on a bad team is JD Martinez. The Red Sox are 2+ years away from contenting and Martinez can opt out after next year (owed 19 mil in 21/22). He's had a down year so far (how much can be attributed to a lack of protection?) which should decrease his value. It would still take a decent prospect to get him so maybe it is Arias for JD Martinez and cash (toss in another prospect depending on the cash).
Martinez becomes the nearly full time DH, and if you think Pham will be back before the playoffs, you could very well end up having Myers and Chronenworth hitting 7/8. That leaves only the pitchers spot aka Hedges as the offensive hole in the lineup.