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2020 In Season Trade ideas
#121 · August 23, 2020, 6:57 am
I have been thinking about Martinez too as a trade target. DH only but his approach at the plate really fits right into the "new Padre" style. Fits the "professional hitter" profile and would be a middle of the order force.
Every indication is that Chaim Bloom would be willing (maybe eager) to trade him as he is shifting into a "rebuild" mode in Boston as made clearer when Boston fan favorite Brock Holt was released by some team and Bloom said he is not interested since not in their future plus when asked about the, on the surface, illogical possibility of trading Bogarts before his contract vested, he did not categorically deny the possibility.
Martinez does have opt outs after 2020 and 2021 ... contracts about $20MM in 2021 and 2022 at ages 34, 35. Scott Boras is his agent. Not worried in his case about age diminishing his talent.
Two elements have to be settled on the Padres side before moving to players ..... how much money will Boston eat / how much money can/will Padres be willing to take on in 2021-2022. Given the losses in 2020 that is hard to gauge ... can the Padres get Boras agree to waive the two opt outs (unlikely he exercises it in the environment but a risk the Padres should not have). Both of those elements factor in on the quality of players going to Boston.
If the Padres just let the FA go ... their payroll should drop to near $120MM ... add Martinez back up to $140MM (if at full contract) ...no idea where the Padres want to settle.
Not sure ... with a bad farm system ... whether Boston would prefer a grouping of very very good prospects from a deep Padres system or reduce the volume and get an "elite" prospect. If I were Preller, I would be looking into such deal ... convince Fowler to take on the full contract to minimize the player return.
Note that 2 years of Martinez would coincide with the control over Myers and the opt out window for Hosmer ... and take him one year past the FA of Pham and Davies. 2021-22 could be a strong window to winning before transitioning to a new set of prospects arriving.
#122 · August 23, 2020, 8:05 am
Fenn, that was kinda my thought. If the Padres are willing to give up a bit extra in prospect for extra cash, I could see Boston paying for half for a good return. If the Padres are willing to pay him $10-12 mil/yr it becomes affordable (especially considering Richards is a FA after this year so thats most of what they would owe JD).
My biggest thought is that it would be worth it even if they gave up a close to top 100 prospect in Arias, and maybe another solid prospect in Weathers or Cantillo if they eat $10 mil/yr. It gives the Padres another big bat and gives them this nice 3 years window (2020-2022) with Martinez/Myers/Hosmer, 2 years with Pham. Where the team can really be a power house.
And yes it would mean we would not spend any extra $ on the rotation next year, but we already have Lamet, Paddack, Davies, Morejon, Quantril, Patino, Gore, and Baez under contract and ready to go, so I think the rotation will be just fine.
#123 · August 23, 2020, 8:32 am
I'd be happy just swapping France and Naylor as our DH, depending on who's pitching.
I'm sure Martinez has LOADS of money still coming over the next few years? We need to make sure there's enough money in the pot to pay for our ascending superstar, as well as extending guys like Lamet and Paddack before they reach FA.
Another arm maybe but not a DH.
#124 · August 23, 2020, 8:40 am
Have to get Boras to agree on Martinez not opting out of the next two years. Can't take that gamble while giving up any significant prospect just for 2020.
My other thought to balance out some dollars (if needed) is a non-tender of Pham (about $9MM) ... not a good LF and open question about how he performs offensively in 2021 after a difficult start to 2020 plus 2021 would be his last season anyway. Doubt the Padres go that route .. they seem to like his presence on the team but could argue that letting Pham go and re-signing Profar (less money, better LF defense, versatility) might be a better strategy if you have Martinez DH. Padres do like what Profar brings to the clubhouse too. Also, gives Naylor some more shots to prove his bat in LF at minimum cost.
Padres have pitching and INF prospects close enough to overwhelm Bloom in some combo without using "elite" prospects. Martinez may be a quality bat but his trade value is a bit lowered as a DH only (not a lot of potential buyers) .. big contract (at a time when money is thin) ... and a clear indication that Bloom wants to rebuild. Would be an interesting negotiation in balancing SD - Boston - Boras to a deal.
#125 · August 23, 2020, 8:49 am
As BALT begins to realize their fate as a very bad team and falls out of playoff dreams ... should the name Mychal Givens show up on the horizon as a RP option? Doing well so far in 2020 and is controlled in 2021 ... not a major salary to consider.
Baltimore needs ... well everything ... so finding potential trade chips should be easy.
The one "problem" may be with BALT ... willing to deal him BUT wants someone to take one of their bad contracts (and they have a few). Might just have to wait to the last second at the trade deadline. BALT is not in a hurry ... but in a week SD may be in a position not to worry about adding a Givens.
#126 · August 23, 2020, 9:03 am
Quote from WindsorUK on August 23, 2020, 8:32 amI'd be happy just swapping France and Naylor as our DH, depending on who's pitching.
I'm sure Martinez has LOADS of money still coming over the next few years? We need to make sure there's enough money in the pot to pay for our ascending superstar, as well as extending guys like Lamet and Paddack before they reach FA.
Another arm maybe but not a DH.
Wouldn't worry about money for Tatis, Paddack, Lamet ... bigger money for them doesn't start kicking in until 2023 during the later arbitration years .... Martinez and Myers will be gone by then saving about $40MM. Hosmer's deal drops $7MM ... Davies will be gone replaced by a minimum pay SP. Even if they extend those guys ... probably would not front loaded the deals.
I am OK with a France/Naylor DH but Martinez is an elite bat that would take the offense to a new higher level and probably make the rest of the line-up better. Padres have the SP now and coming so don't need to spend there. RP is probably the most volatile position and would try to develop that more internally or with short term pieces at a low cost.
#127 · August 23, 2020, 9:40 am
I'm really liking a JD Martinez deal - hope we can get it done without sacrificing too much. If Boston can literally give away Workman (which didn't work yesterday for Philly), then maybe they will be more realistic in their asking price for Martinez. If the issue is just money, I don't think that will be the showstopper. Lots of options going into 2021 to get our salary structure in line.
#128 · August 23, 2020, 11:19 am
HITTING: OPS: 5th OBP: 6th BA: 17th BB: 4th HR: 3rd SB: 2nd ...this was going into yesterday's skewing game:
Today: OPS: 3rd OBP: T-6th BA: 13th BB:T-4th HR: T-1st SB: 2nd
... Padres already have an elite Offense in MLB in every category but BA, and that's with LF (Pham/Profar), C, & "DH"to some extent relatively under-performing expectations. I'm not naive enough to believe the "big 6" are going to sustain these #'s over the entire 2nd 1/2, but I do believe they'll get more at the 3 "problem" spots in lineup from the guys already there.
By contrast, the bullpen WITH Pomeranz is bottom 1/3 in league. Without him, it's probably bottom 5. Fangraphs now has Padres with a 94% chance of making playoffs, and 2nd best odds in entire NL (5.5%) of winning World Series. I don't know what situation could possibly exist-- given this year's expanded playoff format being SO favorable to our odds-- to make more sense to "overpay" for a RP from our 2nd best MLB system.... IF Pom is OK & can return after just a 10 day IL stint, becomes him, "new guy", & maybe Strahm as our 7,8,9 with Jose Castillo beginning to work his way back...
I am not against adding to the offense. JD Martinez is kind of the exemplar template of what you're looking for. But they HAVE to add RP help somehow to backfill Yates and Pomeranz who at best they're going to have to be very cautious with now.
#129 · August 23, 2020, 11:40 am
FENN, you made an interesting point about Preller thinking outside the box & looking for where the relative "value" is...
I can think of 2 "concepts" he might employ
- SP instead of RP. If there simply isn't a good "value" fit for an RP, maybe an expiring contract SP who is more of a #4-5 (not playoff rotation) guy? If he were good enough to average 5 IP the rest of the way & completely free up guys like Quantrill & Morejon to unequivocally move to bullpen for the remainder of 2020; it would be an "indirect" way of addressing the pen. OR could be a longer control guy for larger asset in trade who replaces Garrett Richards next year. The 180 of this would be to trade the still significant asset value SP Lucchesi with 4 years control including 2021 @ minimum salary to a team for a multiple year control but more expensive RP; a team eyeing stockpiling enough young cheap SP to get through a financially & physically challenging 162 game season... i.e everyone including us.
2. Corner OF. Could do a bigger trade for a multi-year control OF who essentially displaces EITHER Pham or Myers (as an offseason trade -- or even non-tender for Pham) in 2021. Pham could conceivably return as the DH at the very end of season & playoffs. I'd take 80% Pham > 100% Profar/France/Naylor in the playoffs. Personally, I would absolutely NOT bet against a healthy Tommy Pham heading into a full length contract year (i.e. 2021). In other words, the slow start & injury are silver linings for his 2021 arb salary increase to be nominal; he could be a phenomenal value in '21...
#130 · August 23, 2020, 11:58 am
Even if we lose today, Padres really have the luxury of being in the "catbird seat" with regard to waiting till the very end of the deadline to maximize the # of potential "Selling" teams... allows us to see where Pomeranz is really at by the end of his 10-day IL stint, which obviously influences (but also telegraphs to other teams) urgency. A week ago I thought it was critical any incoming player/s arrive before the "critical"4 game series in Colorado; but NOW with the huge Pads/Rox swing in standings, all we really have to do is hold serve in Colorado and split that series. The pressure has shifted from us to the Rox.
Conversely, a desparate team like Philly had to pull the trade trigger when they did; to maximize time having the players. They could very well by the deadline feel like they're now out of it & turn around and trade either/both Workman & Hembree... no harm done to their future considering how little they gave up & they'd recoup something back. Good move by Phils.