Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 21, 2020, 2:43 pm

I think Lucchesi has more value than we think. He put up an ERA just over 4 each of his first two seasons. On most teams that's a quality back of the rotation starter. I think the fact that he's not in our rotation right now has a lot more to do with the quality of our other starters, our prospects, and the shortened season than it has to do with Joey's abilities. For us he's expendable. If you put him on the Angels right now he might be their #2.

With Trout, Rendon, Pujols, and Upton all on big contracts the Angels are going to have to take a chance on cheap young talent if they want to compete.

Realistically I think you look at the Pham trade as a rough blueprint for what Goodwin might command. Goodwin is younger, less injury prone, and has slightly more control remaining than Pham did at the time of the deal. Pham has a longer track record and is a little bit better when healthy. I think their value is fairly comparable.

Lucchesi serves as the Renfroe of the deal. Quiroz was basically a throw in. Edwards obviously is a higher rated prospect than Miller or Torrens. However, they're both MLB or near MLB ready at potential positions of need for the Angels. There's also no second piece coming back to us in this scenario which makes up for some of the gap between the prospects. It might be undervaluing Goodwin slightly, but I think it's a reasonable proposal.

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2020, 3:28 pm

Goodwin is currently sitting #20 in MLB OPS for OF ... Angels will be pushing that justifiably.

I guess we will disagree on the value of Lucchesi. Think Goodwin gets better from someone else especially at the trade deadline. Remember they can always wait to trade him in the winter when the market is bigger and more prospects are available to be included. Angels can be picky at this point. Think he is only making a little over $2MM so he is not a money issue for LAA.

However, if this winter LAA is interested in Lucchesi and a few others .... maybe a deal targeting Marsh would be a better gambit for the Padres (even maybe Adams). Both a young, controllable, good OF candidates going forward to replace Pham and Myers and/or fill out the reserves.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 21, 2020, 4:04 pm

I think we fans tend to overvalue our own players/prospects and undervalue that player or prospect we want to acquire.  Personally, I like Marsh better than Goodwin as a prospect, but not the guy we need right now.  I'm thinking the focus will be on RP rather than OF by the trade deadline.  Lucchesi has limited value but not zero value, in my opinion, and may be able to get a prospect with a lot of risk potential if we try to trade him now.  Better in the off-season unless someone willing to part with a decent RP and ask for Lucchesi as part of the deal - he wouldn't be the major player in the deal.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 21, 2020, 5:38 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2020, 3:28 pm

Goodwin is currently sitting #20 in MLB OPS for OF ... Angels will be pushing that justifiably.

I guess we will disagree on the value of Lucchesi. Think Goodwin gets better from someone else especially at the trade deadline. Remember they can always wait to trade him in the winter when the market is bigger and more prospects are available to be included. Angels can be picky at this point. Think he is only making a little over $2MM so he is not a money issue for LAA.

However, if this winter LAA is interested in Lucchesi and a few others .... maybe a deal targeting Marsh would be a better gambit for the Padres (even maybe Adams). Both a young, controllable, good OF candidates going forward to replace Pham and Myers and/or fill out the reserves.

 

He's also 100 points above his career OPS and only has 83 PAs this year. Basing his value on that small of a sample size makes no sense.

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2020, 7:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2020, 12:29 pm

Seems as though Boston and PHIL are discussing a deal ... multiple players being discussed ... but a known name is Brandon Workman. 32 year old RP who is a FA after the season ... 6.1 innings this year (4.05 ERA / 1.80 WHIP) and a career 3.75 ERA. Basically not great RP.

So, should be informative to see how this deal goes down and the level of prospect that goes to Boston. Might give some structure for the Padres’ deals in 2020.

Should note that most seem to see RP ... any kind ... as the most sought after trade commodity.

Boston ends up sending two veteran ML (but just OK) RP to PHIL .... Workman and Hembree.

Return ... even though RP is considered the main trade target this year ... was not impressive. Pivetta (a 27 year old journeyman at the alternative site) and Seabold (a 24 year old prospect from AA). Seabold is the #23 PHIL prospect in a very marginal farm system.

Sort of a nothing trade ... guess Boston saves some money and gained some control.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 21, 2020, 11:04 pm

Hard to believe that is the best package the Red Sox could have received.  Must be who you know or who you are willing to deal with.  I'm still hoping Preller can pull off a trade because our pen is really hurting.

Quote from fenn68 on August 22, 2020, 6:08 am

New addendum on the PHIL-BOST ... additionally Boston will additionally send a PTNL or more cash to Philadelphia.

With as many teams that want RP ... and maybe not a lot of RP on the market ... the Boston return even for two marginal RP seems surprising weak.

This deal tends to support the thesis that “buyers” are not going to give up anyone they see in their future for maybe 10-15 relief appearances ... especially if the RP is not “elite” and just OK. Not hearing any “elite” RP on the market.

Apparently Preller is making the calls (he always does) ... so a deal is possible. Most seem to think the three KC RP are in play for any team that makes a good offer: Rosenthal, Kennedy, and Holland. Kela (PITT) out with injury.

With only 23 games after the trade deadline ... not a lot of time to make an impact and the RP candidates not being great ... maybe Preller holds. With ... today ... the Padres looking like a making the playoffs is likely, might see other teams that are struggling to make the playoffs be more motivated to overpay.

Quote from fenn68 on August 22, 2020, 6:22 am

I guess KC is in a good position to get “something” good in deadline deals with Rosenthal, Holland, and Kennedy all FA after the season ... and with Rosenthal and Holland pitching well (Kennedy is not).

Other than getting only maybe 10 appearances (and potential playoff value) reducing the trade value from the buyers’ perspective, the “past” is probably irrelevant and it is all what are they doing now and does the buyer think that current performance hold as they change teams (leagues).

Any other RP on the market?

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 22, 2020, 7:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2020, 7:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2020, 12:29 pm

Seems as though Boston and PHIL are discussing a deal ... multiple players being discussed ... but a known name is Brandon Workman. 32 year old RP who is a FA after the season ... 6.1 innings this year (4.05 ERA / 1.80 WHIP) and a career 3.75 ERA. Basically not great RP.

So, should be informative to see how this deal goes down and the level of prospect that goes to Boston. Might give some structure for the Padres’ deals in 2020.

Should note that most seem to see RP ... any kind ... as the most sought after trade commodity.

Boston ends up sending two veteran ML (but just OK) RP to PHIL .... Workman and Hembree.

Return ... even though RP is considered the main trade target this year ... was not impressive. Pivetta (a 27 year old journeyman at the alternative site) and Seabold (a 24 year old prospect from AA). Seabold is the #23 PHIL prospect in a very marginal farm system.

Sort of a nothing trade ... guess Boston saves some money and gained some control.

How would you like to get Workman, Embree, $$ back, and a PTBNL (or more $) for....  Perdomo & Jorge Ona.

That's what Philly just did.  I'm a little shocked Padres could/would not come over the top to get these guys...

Workman has been down this year, but very limited work since Boston so bad.  Embree had been great so far, then had a meltdown his last outing (against Philly!)...  but this is a VERY low price.

Theoretically, it bodes well for Padres, BUT there are very few true Sellers, so it's not like there's 10 more of these trades out there.  Keone Kela for Pitt just pulled for forearm tightness.  The Royals might be in the driver's seat here....  they & the few other sellers know the Pads are desparate for bullpen help.