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2020 Draft
#61 · June 5, 2020, 2:37 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 4, 2020, 7:14 amGetting the sense that the Padres will have the pick of some highly rated high upside HS picks at #8 as the "better" / safer College types go early.
Preller generally likes high upside but does have to play the board as it plays out and needs to factor in some sense of probability as to the specific option he selects. At all costs avoid those incredible 5 tool talent potential prospects that will be a super stars ... if they learn to make contact (see Gettys types that litter the minor leagues).
My view has been to first identify the prospects with the best hitting skills then out of that limited group sort to maximize the remaining skills for the projected position.
Sort of the reason I like Hassell over Veen ... Hassell is considered the best "hitter" even if Veen has some superior secondary skills but does have some of the worrisome "swing and miss" tendencies ... correctible? Maybe but that is usually more hope than reality. At #8, got to get it right. Take those gambles with the Compensation Pick or a later pick.
I absolutely have ta agree with you on this fenn68. We have far too many athletes in our system who can run, throw and play defense but cannot hit. We need more bats. We have tremendous pitching but outside of Tatis and Machado we don't have any threats in the lineup.
I have seems mocks recently that have Veen falling to us. That would be my top choice. If not him then Hassell. If neither gets to us then we go pitching.
I am not worried about players going back to school. With only 5 rounds, the lowest draft bonus this year is still valued at over $320,000.
#62 · June 6, 2020, 7:04 am
If Preller's history of picks over the past 3 drafts ... we should see HS picks at #8, #34, and #45 unless this draft is quirky due to the unique circumstances that have limited scouting of HS kid at the point where their bodies are changing (for good or bad).
Over the past 3 drafts: Gore (3); Abrams (6); Weathers (7); Edwards (38); Campusano (39); Mears (48) ... no college players taken early ... first college player taken was Driscoll at #73 in 2019, so maybe college types starting in round 3.
2 LH pitchers ... 2 shortstops ... 1 catcher ... 1 OF. Preller does like the "up the middle" types ... at least where they are playing now.
#63 · June 6, 2020, 10:16 am
Quote from fenn68 on June 6, 2020, 7:04 amIf Preller's history of picks over the past 3 drafts ... we should see HS picks at #8, #34, and #45 unless this draft is quirky due to the unique circumstances that have limited scouting of HS kid at the point where their bodies are changing (for good or bad).
- Over the past 3 drafts: Gore (3); Abrams (6); Weathers (7); Edwards (38); Campusano (39); Mears (48) ... no college players taken early ... first college player taken was Driscoll at #73 in 2019, so maybe college types starting in round 3.
2 LH pitchers ... 2 shortstops ... 1 catcher ... 1 OF. Preller does like the "up the middle" types ... at least where they are playing now.
I don't think Preller was actively looking to go HS, especially in the first round. I know that Gore was a guy who could have gone as high as #1 and when he was there at #3 Preller had to pounce. For Abrams draft there was a clear top 6 prospects that had separated themselves from the pack and Abrams was just the one who happened to fall to us. We were VERY lucky! The Weathers pick has always bothered me. Usually when you go HS in the top of the 1st round, you are taking a shot on higher upside versus a more proven player who is closer to the majors. Weathers was neither. But I digress.
I am sure Preller will take whoever he sees as having the most talent. At #8 in the draft the talent seems to be at high school hitters(OF with power questions), college pitchers and maybe a risky college power bat or 2. The player that I am worried about is Detmers, a college lefty with middling stuff but good pitchabiliy. He seems kinda like Weathers. A guy who can get to SD quickly but has limited upside. Oh well, we will all find out in a few days!
#64 · June 6, 2020, 10:48 am
Seems that Preller will go with the best player available based on HIS criteria which appears to be:
- "up the middle" .. P, C, SS, CF ... arguable the best athletes and easiest to shift to other roles
- "upside" ... at least early ...
- "younger" ... the three years of additional development from the Padres staff vs. college time may be seen as getting someone that fits the Padres better when (if) they arrive in the majors
Still, if a clearly better college player (within Preller's criteria) is sitting at the Padres slot ... no doubt he will take him. In this draft, consensus seems to put the top three (all college) significantly ahead of the next tier .... and a couple more college types should go 4-7 ... so a good chance the Padres have their pick of a top HS player (fitting the Preller criteria) versus one of the bypassed college types.
Agree that the Weather's pick at #7 is questionable but looking at the picks that immediately followed: #8 Stewart did not sign; #9 Murray is playing pro football maybe he was (at the time) the best player available. Sure can find some much later picks that appears better .... but there had to be a reason they were a later pick in the view of a lot of teams. Maybe it just was a bad draft crop.
#65 · June 6, 2020, 11:14 am
Consider:
- If a College player is not drafted has a choice between signing as a non-drafted FA for $20,000 or return to school and come out in the next draft (a year older) and with no (or less) leverage to get a bigger bonus;
- Although sometimes teams hit gold in the 4th and 5th rounds, more often than not they are not picks with high upside (2019: Brash; Lincoln .... 2018: Coleman; Williams-Sutton ..... 2017: Keating; Hozma)
- Padres slot bonus allocation for #4 is $533K and for #5 is $398K.
Given that could the Padres be motivated to convince a college player (maybe the level of s 6th or 7th round pick but only eligible for $20K bonus) take $50K as the 4th / 5th round pick and harvest over $800K to pay over slot money as needed in the earlier rounds to maybe sign a "higher ceiling" player sliding due to bonus demands?
Adding $800K to the $2,148K for the Competitive Balance Pick (#34) might get a player ranked mid-late 1st round but was not picked by those teams. $3MM is around the slot value for the #22 pick.
Seems like a good strategy for an organization with the 2nd best farm system going for quality vs. quantity.
#66 · June 8, 2020, 10:53 pm
Damnit! Mick Abel had TJ surgery! In HS! Scratch him off the list.
#68 · June 9, 2020, 12:53 pm
Beginning to think some of the national types are just speculating extreme scenarios just to keep their names out there.
Latest .... some teams in the Top 10 may take a player ... low ball offer with no intent to sign ... save bonus money this year ... and get a replacement pick next draft.
Other than short run cash savings ... could argue with the "unknowns" surrounding players who have not played in 2020 (especially HS types) and the likelihood a lot of HS types will go to JC and College types return for a season ... 2021's draft could be really deep and teams will have spring 2021 to get further evaluations ... so with nowhere to play / develop 2020 draft picks, why not just bump all this out a year when the AZ Rookie league is back in business?
Maybe good for teams ... not so much for the player getting drafted ... low balled ... not signed ... especially if a college type.
#69 · June 9, 2020, 1:44 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 9, 2020, 12:53 pmBeginning to think some of the national types are just speculating extreme scenarios just to keep their names out there.
Latest .... some teams in the Top 10 may take a player ... low ball offer with no intent to sign ... save bonus money this year ... and get a replacement pick next draft.
Other than short run cash savings ... could argue with the "unknowns" surrounding players who have not played in 2020 (especially HS types) and the likelihood a lot of HS types will go to JC and College types return for a season ... 2021's draft could be really deep and teams will have spring 2021 to get further evaluations ... so with nowhere to play / develop 2020 draft picks, why not just bump all this out a year when the AZ Rookie league is back in business?
Maybe good for teams ... not so much for the player getting drafted ... low balled ... not signed ... especially if a college type.
First off, it seems Google is not my friend. I saw an article that said Mick Abel had TJ surgery so I Googled "Mick Abel Tommy John." Several articles came up saying he had TJ surgery, but many others had Kevin Abel of Oregon State having it, as opposed to Mock Abel from an Oregon HS. So he may not have had it. I hope not because he seems to be an extremely promising pitcher who could very likely be there when we pick.
I think you are correct again Fenn, these guys are just making up stories off of rumors just to have something to fill pages. People think that next year's draft is going to be loaded. I don't. I have only seen 2 or 3 guys in the 30 to 80 range withdraw from the draft. It will be almost entirely after 5th round talent who will not be signing. Next year's draft will have a lot more overall talent, but the talent at the very top will be the same as always.
I cannot wait for tomorrow!
#70 · June 10, 2020, 4:36 am
In the latest MLB.com mock draft ... both Veen and Meyer are gone by the time the Padres select. Callis has them taking Kjerstad (LHH OF, College) and Mayo has them taking Hassell (LHH OF, HS).
Kjerstand has power but saw a report on him that he has tinkered with his swing (not in a good way) and has created some swing and miss tendencies. I guess that can be dealt with. More of a pure corner OF. Legit Top 10 guy though.
Hassell has been considered the best HS hitter in the draft and has some CF skills although may end up in a corner. Side comment for someone is that Hassell might be signed for slightly under slot and the extra spent on enticing a signing of a quality prospect who got bypassed early ... probably a HS kid with a college option.
I would go for Hassell as a HS prospect ... more of an all around skill set ... and can't pass on the best hitting skills from a HS prospect.