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2020 Draft
#171 · June 24, 2020, 5:57 am
Quote from hoffy51 on June 24, 2020, 3:51 amI don't know. But for me . . . If they had already agreed to an under slot number before the draft he would have signed sooner than this. Second, if the Padres would have valued Wilcox so much they would have drafted him at 34 and not at 80. There is no way their plan could have been, yeah, even though Veen is there, we'll wait and draft Wilcox at 80. They couldn't have anticipated that he would be there at 80. And lastly, maybe they really did value Hassell's hitting, defense, and speed over Veen's power. It could really be that simple.
I am in the camp that they just valued Hassell’s skills more than Veen ...
No question they “understood” the level needed to sign Hassell before drafting him ... but no hurry in making the signing giving time for a complete physical, finalizing the exact number, and filing the paperwork, (note that for some reason a LOT of teams announced the #1 signing yesterday).
With the “expected” money from an under slot signing of Hassell .... that set up the rest of the draft strategy and they probably had multiple names they were watching drop down the board. We will see how the next two picks play out but guessing first and foremost they wanted those guys ... knew the general signing dollars and needed to get them selected before they got picked by another team. Maybe they provide more to sign Wilcox ... maybe they don’t.
Padres are looking at the other teams ability to pay Wilcox (with under slot signings) after he slid out of the first round (same goes for some other potential over slot signings) and probably were comfortable low chance he would get selected. Once the Padres were “comfortable” they had money to sign Wilcox with the “understood” price point of Hassell, Lange, and Cassie ... and knowing they could go a lot of different ways on the 4th /5th round picks they picked Wilcox “knowing” they could meet his price point. No team in a 5 round draft is going to make a pick that they had a risk of not signing (unless they wanted to punt and save money in the 2020 draft).
Padres must have had a real good feel on the money to sign the picks or unlikely they would not have taken Haynes at #5 and signing him near slot if they needed more under slot money to sign any of the higher picks. Probably the pick of Thomas at #4 pretty much closed the loop on money needs.
I guess if Wilcox went before they picked him .... they would just have taken a different over slot pick in the 3rd round and maybe go with an over slot in the 4th. Then we would be hearing the upside value of those picks in a well managed draft rather than Wilcox.
#172 · June 24, 2020, 6:38 am
I agree
#173 · June 24, 2020, 7:55 am
#174 · June 24, 2020, 8:30 am
Quote from hoffy51 on June 24, 2020, 3:51 amI don't know. But for me . . . If they had already agreed to an under slot number before the draft he would have signed sooner than this. Second, if the Padres would have valued Wilcox so much they would have drafted him at 34 and not at 80. There is no way their plan could have been, yeah, even though Veen is there, we'll wait and draft Wilcox at 80. They couldn't have anticipated that he would be there at 80. And lastly, maybe they really did value Hassell's hitting, defense, and speed over Veen's power. It could really be that simple.
Completely agree. Picking #8 Pads didn't KNOW Wilcox would even get out of the 1st round. The fact he did conceivably could have affected some of their subsequent picks, but plan more generally at that point likely to pick under slot guys to gain an extra overslot player in 3rd round on from guys available who "slid". Wilcox wasn't the only one; maybe just the highest profile guy.
Personally I think Pads may have learned from Gettys & Buddy Reed... OK to gamble on "hit tool" developing on great athlete in 2nd round... but not this high in the draft; better to gamble on a questionable "power" tool.
Think Pads had Hassell as the better value proposition for what he would sign at. It will be interesting to see what Veen signs for, and of course the 2 players will always be compared b/c Veen is a Rockie.
#175 · June 24, 2020, 8:36 am
When he gets to Colorado Veen will hit a lot of home runs there. I can hear it now, "O my God, we should have drafted him." But all of those home runs would not have translated to PETCO IMHO.
#176 · June 24, 2020, 10:41 am
Veen signs for $5MM ... that is above slot for #9 I think and well above Hassell.
Agree that Hassell for SD and PETCO is the better fit even if the two where overall “equal” projection-wise to the ML ... just different.
Looks like the Padres played the game well.
#177 · June 24, 2020, 11:58 am
2nd-rder Owen Caissie signs with @Padres for $1,200,004 (slot 45 value = $1,650,200). Canadian HS OF, super-projectable power at 6-4/190, solid to plus runner with strong arm too. Michigan recruit. @MLBDraft
Jim Callis
@jimcallisMLB
Supplemental 1st-rder Justin Lange signs with @Padres
for $2 mil (slot 34 value = $2,148,100). Texas HS RHP, one of best fastballs (up to 100 mph) & bodies (6-4/220) in the prep class, also flashes a plus slider, super athletic. Dallas Baptist recruit.
That leaves 3rd-rd Cole Wilcox as the sole unsigned pick for the @Padres
. They can pay him $2,793,996 without exceeding their bonus pool, and $3,327,696 without going over by more than 5% (and forfeiting future picks).
#178 · June 24, 2020, 12:40 pm
Wilcox won't turn that down.
#179 · June 24, 2020, 3:28 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2020, 10:41 amVeen signs for $5MM ... that is above slot for #9 I think and well above Hassell.
Agree that Hassell for SD and PETCO is the better fit even if the two where overall “equal” projection-wise to the ML ... just different.
Looks like the Padres played the game well.
5 MM just a tick over his slot, like 1%. 700K "savings" for the Padres; $ needed to get Wilcox. I also liked the selection of Hassell over Veen on just pure hitting ability, but don't follow the draft prospects at all, especially this year. Hope you guys are right!
#180 · June 24, 2020, 3:58 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2020, 11:58 am2nd-rder Owen Caissie signs with @Padres for $1,200,004 (slot 45 value = $1,650,200). Canadian HS OF, super-projectable power at 6-4/190, solid to plus runner with strong arm too. Michigan recruit. @MLBDraftJim Callis@jimcallisMLBSupplemental 1st-rder Justin Lange signs with @Padresfor $2 mil (slot 34 value = $2,148,100). Texas HS RHP, one of best fastballs (up to 100 mph) & bodies (6-4/220) in the prep class, also flashes a plus slider, super athletic. Dallas Baptist recruit.Jim Callis
That leaves 3rd-rd Cole Wilcox as the sole unsigned pick for the @Padres. They can pay him $2,793,996 without exceeding their bonus pool, and $3,327,696 without going over by more than 5% (and forfeiting future picks).
Nice work FENN! Caissie right where I thought he'd be, Lange +250K though. Clearly a fast riser.
Think the fact Lange got to 2 MM increases the likelihood that Wilcox gets to (at least) 3 MM. Wilcox has a pretty good argument there: MLB.com ranking for him #23 puts him just < 3 MM (#23 slot) vs only 1.25 MM for Lange @ their #57 ranking. Hassell also went about 250K higher than I projected; maybe partly due to wanting to exceed Wilcox by 1 MM+.(i.e. "why should Hassell hand over all the pool 'overage' $ to Wilcox")...
... so if Hassell > 1 MM+ than Wilcox > 1 MM + than Lange... My exact guess of 3.05 MM for Wilcox to beat Hudson Head's 3rd round record of 3 MM last year is the exact midpoint between 2.794 MM Pool limit and 3.327 MM "Max overage" limit