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2020 Draft
#161 · June 17, 2020, 5:14 pm
I don't think they wasted a 3rd round pick on a guy that they couldn't sign. Sort of why I doubt there is much negotiation going on with any of the top 4 picks ... just fine tuning and probably physicals of some sort.
#1 - #3 are all HS kids and IF at this point they tried to slip a significant under slot offer ... lower than previously discussed .... they could just lose them to a College commitment. If lost, the Padres lose all the slot money ... and likely lose any flexibility to sign Wilcox.
If anything the HS kids hold the cards ... if they pull out the Padres lose them and Wilcox.
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Just a random side thought ... Boras is quite good at his job so had a pretty good sense of the teams that would be in on Wilcox (and their likely range of money). Also pretty sure that as much as he want to maximize money now he wants the best landing spot for his guy in term of future development (and then more money for Boras).
He may have been "rated" as the 23rd talent ... but wasn't going to get selected that high meaning the offer will be from a much lower slot ... and if that lower slot was with a team without a major bonus pool would be hard to get them to pay over slot.
So, what if Boras put out a "high" price to sign Wilcox to team he did not want to take Wilcox and a "lower" price to a team that would take him ... had the money to pay the "better" contract ... had a farm system that is a combination having the reputation of high development skills ...and one he has a good working relationship with? Boras' client still gets what Boras thinks he should get for Wilcox but orchestrates a scenario where he gets that from an organization that is better for his client. Note that once Wilcox passed the first round ... bonus pool generally could not afford him (even with manipulation) leaving only some bottom feeder organizations.
Just a thought.
#162 · June 18, 2020, 8:58 am
I agree it's very likely (95%?) Wilcox signs... but not certain. All draftees/agents have a "target" $ #, but all agents 1) try to get as much as possible for their client without jeopardizing signing entirely & 2) React to information... Obviously teams do the same in the opposite direction.
Pads 2020 draft is extremely similar to 2019. Because: 1) Boras represents both Wilcox & Hudson Head, 2) Wilcox is a much more highly rated "national radar" prospect than Head was, 3) signing bonuses except for 100K are deferred into 2021-22, and 4) it's Boras, I think he will insist that Wilcox TOP Head's 3rd round pick record of 3 MM even.
It's definitely do-able, but Wilcox requiring a significant amount "from" Hassell (& his agent), the deferrals being very unfavorable to all draftees, AND the 5% Cap overage maybe being a no-go this year are where the uncertainty come in. Last year Head got 500K+ "from" Abrams slot. Think Wilcox will need more than that from Hassell's slot.
#163 · June 18, 2020, 11:23 am
I really don’t have any worry about the Padres dipping into that $500K over allocation (and penalty) ... even in these circumstances given their focus on building the future. If they were worried about money they would not have drafted Wilcox (or anyone who wanted over slot) ... just a string of under slot signings or just plan not to sign some picks.
Do think Wilcox will get his $3MM (or close) and it serves Boras to get that done. Never good not taking 1st round money and going to college which has a greater likelihood of lowering the value from the 1st round. How much better can he get money wise from $3MM vs. the risk of TJ or a leveling out of development or having a deeper draft that just keeps him drafted lower.
All three HS kids were drafted higher than rated ... so, in theory all have some (actually quite a bit) room for under slot bonuses. Seems to me their is enough room for each one to get more than their “rating value”/expected draft position and the slot value where they were signed. Wouldn’t be surprised if most of the additional money to sign Wilcox came for the signing of Lange and Cassie ... and some (but not the bulk) from Hassell.
Not to worry ... it will get done.
#164 · June 18, 2020, 12:35 pm
"Came from" ie past tense? Have the Padres already signed Hassell, Lange, and Cassie?
#165 · June 18, 2020, 1:18 pm
Quote from hoffy51 on June 18, 2020, 12:35 pm"Came from" ie past tense? Have the Padres already signed Hassell, Lange, and Cassie?
Oops! Maybe better “came for” should be “will come from”
Bring in the English teachers ... since the subject “to sign Wilcox” is a future condition and the precursor is having to sign the kids under slot ... might argue that then the signing “came from” ... or there would not be a signing. Two future conditions with one having to occur before the other.
Arbitrators please.
#166 · June 23, 2020, 12:06 pm
Padres sign USD Catcher Adam Kerner.
Kid looks legit.
Not the strongest arm but quick release.
#167 · June 23, 2020, 6:07 pm
Hassell signs for 800k under slot. Signs for 4.3 mil slot was 5.13 mil.
While Padres have been trying to justify why they think Hassell is better than Veen, I think they didnt expect Veen to be there and had this underslot deal with Hassell already in place. If they take Veen and he signs for slot, they probably cant sign Wilcox and wont draft him. I'm sure Preller viewed Hassell and Wilcox (two first rounders) higher than Veen and whoever they would be able to get later.
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LynchMob
#168 · June 23, 2020, 6:30 pm
Quote from Ben Davey on June 23, 2020, 6:07 pmHassell signs for 800k under slot. Signs for 4.3 mil slot was 5.13 mil.
While Padres have been trying to justify why they think Hassell is better than Veen, I think they didnt expect Veen to be there and had this underslot deal with Hassell already in place. If they take Veen and he signs for slot, they probably cant sign Wilcox and wont draft him. I'm sure Preller viewed Hassell and Wilcox (two first rounders) higher than Veen and whoever they would be able to get later.
Makes sense to me ... wonder how torturous it was to pass on Veen and then worry about Wilcox still being available in 3rd round!!!
Risking it to get Wilcox was ballsy ... I'm hoping it will be Balsley also 🙂
#169 · June 23, 2020, 6:44 pm
Have the Padres ever played a game where 2 or more players were acquired by the Padres during the same Draft?
Assuming so, I wonder what game / players featured the most same-draftees?
It's easy to fantasize about our 3 "first rounders" playing for the Padres together ... in the playoffs ... in 2025 ... for example 🙂
#170 · June 24, 2020, 3:51 am
I don't know. But for me . . . If they had already agreed to an under slot number before the draft he would have signed sooner than this. Second, if the Padres would have valued Wilcox so much they would have drafted him at 34 and not at 80. There is no way their plan could have been, yeah, even though Veen is there, we'll wait and draft Wilcox at 80. They couldn't have anticipated that he would be there at 80. And lastly, maybe they really did value Hassell's hitting, defense, and speed over Veen's power. It could really be that simple.