Quote from fenn68 on June 12, 2020, 8:18 am

Quote from hoffy51 on June 12, 2020, 8:00 am

Has MLB made a definite announcement about the contraction of affiliates per team? They've got to keep AAA and AA. My guess that they are going to eliminate low A ball. AAA, AA, A, rookie league, Dominican?

No ... still have to work that into the other issues as MLB negotiates with MiLB on the overall working agreement that ends after this season.

The last I heard, MLB contraction proposal impacted the short season / rookie league teams ... going to a one "team" with 50 players under contract ... not sure the "active" vs. "inactive" split for playing games. I guess it could be two AZ teams but not more players and not outside the ST sites. So, a combo of the short season leagues being eliminated and capping the numbers in AZ.

However, a lot of other (and maybe more significant) issues in the ML - MiL relationship with ML trying to exercise more control over MiL franchises.

Quote from fenn68 on June 12, 2020, 8:29 am

Note that there is still some hope of a late summer / early fall "camp" for the better minor league prospects for some one on one coaching and maybe some game play. Could be in AZ (depending on the virus conditions on the ground) or at PETCO (think morning for the minors and while the Padres are on the road). Just keeping all the options open and then react to the facts on the ground.

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Just my thought looking ahead to next year:

1. would it make sense to bring in the minor leaguers in earlier to give them more ST coaching and evaluation since looking as though the player limits will generate more releases early?
2. would it make sense to start playing AZ Rookie games in April (vs. post 2021 draft) given the number of returning prospects and draft picks who will be ticketed for AZ as a development / weeding out process before adding 2021 draft picks?  Weather in AZ is a bit better in April / May vs. July / Aug. Have to make up a bit form the lost 2020 season.

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 12, 2020, 9:11 am

Hoffy,  Yeah it sounds like the short season teams are what they're targeting to eliminate.  But some of those affiliates could wind up being full season affiliates (although being up here in Portland, that MIGHT not work too well in Pac NW... might wind up being or folding into an independent league?)

FENN, I like your early AZL season idea, but then where do the draftees next year in a "normal" season play?   Maybe just next year they actually run 2 AZL seasons to account for: 1) Covid, and 2) lost playing/development time and additional evaluation before "final" shrinking of # of Minor leaguers /MLB team to account for the loss of likely 1 affiliate per team.

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 12, 2020, 9:33 am

Padres system is bigger (2nd AZL team) than most, and may be the deepest in MLB... they do not "need" to sign very many FA 20K guys.  But I think they'll look to sign:

• Some College Sr P's.  Since they normally would have drafted these guys at bottom of top 10 rounds to save $ for guys like Wilcox, but now they have to "compete" for them, might be the one category of guys who come out ahead in this short draft.  Last year's Sr P's really hurt by no season this year; looking at being 24 in Ft Wayne next year... may just get supplanted by Sr's from this year
• At least 1 C, ideally bilingual to be the older mentor for all the young arms
• "Best" 1B they can find since system destitute there... might as well take some fliers here.
• MAYBE 1-2 Utility types but system really overflowing in middle INF
• MAYBE 1-2 RH OF to balance all the LH added in the last 12 months:  Grisham, Trammell, Head, Mena, Hassell, Caissie

System still digesting a HUGE # of 300k Intl signings from 2017 (mostly AZL last year) & 2018 (DSL last year); which were concentrated in OF & especially middle INF.  Makes more sense to max return on 300K than 20K...   BUT Pads deep scouting department may be an asset here.

Quote from fenn68 on June 12, 2020, 9:41 am

I suspect they go hardball .... start 2021 AZ with 50 players then post 2021 draft move some up to full season ball (releasing some full season players and generating movement at all 4 full season levels) and at the same time release some of the holdover AZ prospects. Then layer in the new players to hold at 50. Sort of why it makes some sense for competitive games starting in April as a better evaluation tool.

Might delay some of the draftees arrival until 2022 but that is not ideal.

Keep in mind the objective is cost control ... so any scenario that circumvents the 50 player ceiling is not very likely unless they make some allowances for injured players (probably 60 day IL types) or rehabs from full season teams.

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If they go that route ... going to be a bit hard getting used to as "marginal" prospects get released probably a lot sooner than in the past and some are pushed up to full season faster. Consider the annual adds from a 10 round draft (although 20 rounds is still in play) plus the international kids coming up from the DSL merging with the HS kids from the previous draft and not yet ready for full season .... fill up 50 slots quickly and put added pressure on the evaluation folks in making release calls.

Obviously some impact on the younger prospects but probably a lot of the "organizational veterans" in the upper levels get released sooner in favor of some prospect with greater upside but maybe not ready for that level. Not immediately but could see the AAA level reinvent itself (over the next 4 years or so) from a level with minimal prospects and a ton of older but not ML quality bodies. If you will, talent wise ... AAA may be more the current AA, and so forth down the levels ... low A becomes a mesh of the current low A and what was short season.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 12, 2020, 9:52 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 12, 2020, 9:33 am

Padres system is bigger (2nd AZL team) than most, and may be the deepest in MLB... they do not "need" to sign very many FA 20K guys.  But I think they'll look to sign:

• Some College Sr P's.  Since they normally would have drafted these guys at bottom of top 10 rounds to save $ for guys like Wilcox, but now they have to "compete" for them, might be the one category of guys who come out ahead in this short draft.  Last year's Sr P's really hurt by no season this year; looking at being 24 in Ft Wayne next year... may just get supplanted by Sr's from this year
• At least 1 C, ideally bilingual to be the older mentor for all the young arms
• "Best" 1B they can find since system destitute there... might as well take some fliers here.
• MAYBE 1-2 Utility types but system really overflowing in middle INF
• MAYBE 1-2 RH OF to balance all the LH added in the last 12 months:  Grisham, Trammell, Head, Mena, Hassell, Caissie

System still digesting a HUGE # of 300k Intl signings from 2017 (mostly AZL last year) & 2018 (DSL last year); which were concentrated in OF & especially middle INF.  Makes more sense to max return on 300K than 20K...   BUT Pads deep scouting department may be an asset here.

Sounds about right.

Guessing the non-drafted signs will focus on college pitchers since that is the category that seems to produce the most ML talent past round 5 if you discount the over slot position players from the past. Plus pitchers do break down a lot so some volume going into ST is good insurance.

However, do expect some position players that the Padre scouts see some upside tools ... or just perceived as better than the incumbents ticketed for AZ. Arguably they have enough "bodies" to fill out two squads of position players ... but upgrades can't hurt.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 12, 2020, 11:27 am

If Pads can find Jagger Haynes in a town of just over 200, they've got a chance to find a gem or 2.

Looking at draft/slot $ for last 2 years (next post), I was surprised to see how few players drafted & signed the last 2 years were actually below 20 K; really 5 K & less (the 1 K signing bonus is insulting & should be outlawed; 5 K should be the minimum)....

2019:  11th round on:  5 guys including #39  & 40.  Highest pick #18

2018:  Same:  only 4 guys with highest pick #25.

Factoring in the Sr signs in rounds 7-10 for <20 K for Pads & (presumably other teams), I think it's fair to characterize this year's draft as essentially eliminating all players good enough ability wise to ACTUALLY be in rounds 6 -20... really dealing with 20-40 round guys @ 5 K max in past years = 20 K max this year as those FA signs.

Pads have signed 7-8 guys/year last 2 years in this range; but 3 of those each year were before round 10; all College Sr. P's.  Only 5 College Seniors were drafted over 160 picks/ 5 rounds.  So there will be a lot of competition for the College Sr's, especially P's.  But even with draft uncertainty & an extremely strong draft next year (...but filled with a lot of college Seniors), the 20K just is not going to incentivize many College Jr's to give up their last year in school & can't imagine ANY HS going that route....

... So even with the missing rounds, would definitely be surprised if it's > 7-8 guys signed as 20K max FA by Pads.  Even though cheap, not going to sign bodies they simply don't need.

Quote from Brian Connelly on June 12, 2020, 11:59 am

Looked @ 2019 & 2018 top 10 round picks for Pads to see how they made the math work.  Pretty instructive.

Both years Pads (correctly) sacrificed quantity in rounds 7-10 for quality higher in the draft.  The savings from 8-10 were the majority of slot $ saved to sign X. Edwards above slot in 2018 (rest came from Owen Miller almost 200K < slot).

In 2019, rounds 7-10 saved over 650K slot $ that of course all went to Hudson Head.  All 3 of the top 3 picks were 250 -500+ K below slot to make the big reach (i.e. Boras destroying Pads) over slot for Head.

The Pads SHOULD be able to sign all 6 guys.  The biggest question is going to be what they have to give Hassell.  If they can get him at or just above 4 MM signing, then should be able to land Wilcox.  Since Boras is his agent, and Wilcox is more widely and highly rated than Head was, AND is a College Soph, AND the draft bonuses are deferred this year, I can guarantee that Boras is going to want to beat his own record from last year, and slightly exceed 3 MM to Wilcox.

This works as follows:  4.o5 MM to Hassell (5.18), 1.75 MM  to Lange (2.15), 1.25 MM to Caissie (1.65), 3.05 MM to Wilcox (768K), 200 K to Thomas (533 K), and 350 K to Haynes (398 K).

Working in Pads favor is uber elite Abrams ranked #4 by MLB last year & drafted #6 for SOME reason signed 500 K below his slot of 5.75MM.   But the year before Weathers ranked #13 & drafted #7 signed exactly at his 5.23MM slot.   Hassell ranked #16 drafted #8 has some argument to get pretty close to his 5 MM+ slot...  if he does, I don't see how they can land Wilcox.

ALL of the 2020 draftees have SOME leverage, unlike Sr. signs last 2 years creating "guaranteed" $ to work with.  Haynes may be tiny town off radar guy, but he's not going to forgo college for 100K... just don't see much slot savings with him.  Thomas clearly will be below slot, but (better, more on radar) Lucchesi got 100K as 4th round pick as a Senior... feels like Thomas has to significantly exceed that... was VERY strong in limited season this year.   Lange & Caissie MLB.com rank (if drafted in that slot) has them both about 800K below their slot...  I went half of that; 400K each since HS with deferred bonus.

This pushes Hassell down to just > 4 MM.  Some tweaking gets him to  4.18 MM; "only" 1 MM below his slot, but is that enough with deferred bonus?   The suggested slot for the 16th best guy in draft is 3.75 MM, but that differential didn't prevent Weathers from getting his full slot 2 years ago with no deferral.  Pads have been on Hassell so long, they do have to have a good idea what it will take, but hope there's not a change in stance (he who shall not be named) due to deferral & "pressure" of overslot Wilcox gunning for his $.   Seems key to keep him > 1 MM > Wilcox.

Quote from fenn68 on June 12, 2020, 1:25 pm

Barring any of the draftees (or their advisors) having a change of heart (think Kirsten Whitson), doubt that the Padres are going into the signings without an "understanding" of a pretty tight target range (if not locked in) amount for each draftee.

No way they draft Wilcox (considering Boras is his agent) unless they had Hassell locked down to a number and a very tight range on Wilcox. The last thing any team would want is to try to push an under slot signing on your #1 HS pick out of the blue ... and send him to college .... lose that slot money and can't sign Wilcox over slot. Not the gamble to take.

On someone like Hassell his "advisor" prior (and during) the draft is gauging where he may get selected and uses that slot money as the "expected" ... is fielding calls from teams that "might" select him if he is still on the board and what they may offer. So if the advisor see the tea leaves see Hassell getting selected after #10 in a $4MM slot ... Preller calls and says would you sign for less than #8 slot but more than $4MM to go with the Padres? If not, we sign Veen (or someone else). So, in theory, Hassell gets more and Padres open up some bonus money ... win-win.

Take that route will all the picks and end up with an excess pool that allows an over slot on Wilcox before you draft him. Boras is part of the same game ... getting his guy signed (and getting his commission) is the key, so some flexibility is in play or run the risk of Wilcox back in college and not progressing (or getting injured) lessening his future bonus. Now Boras will not make this easy ... but knows how to get his guys signed for premium.

Actually don't care how they make the sausage, if in the end it tastes good. It will get done for all six.