Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2019, 10:37 am

Did Erlin just earn a spot in the bullpen with last night's outing? (always thought that was the best spot for him).

Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm - Paddack seem locks for the first 4 SP but now even more at a loss who wins the #5 spot out of ST.

Perdomo has been redirected to short relief (and probably in AAA)

Kennedy (not much of a contender) is not going to be ready for opening day

Nix has been hit hard and his "stuff" is now being questioned more than before

Mitchell has been ineffective but out of options so ???????????

Then there are the non-roster contenders:

L.Allen ... had a rough start (but some good work too) and the best of the near term prospects

Quantrill ... not loved by the fans but did well the spring and the Padres like him

Margevicius ... hard to imagine a not very highly regarded prospect who was in A ball last season getting the call but he has been getting the reps (now that would be a shocking move).

Then there is the chance of a late signing to bridge the gap to Allen, Quantrill, et. al. Probably not Kuechel or Gonzalez but maybe someone on a low cost, 1 year deal .... Edwin Jackson? Maybe a low end deal of someone like Pirela or second tier prospect for a "serviceable" innings eater (low cost but short term deal)? Preller has been on the phones reportedly ... so??????

Prepared to be surprised on the 5th SP.

Quote from David Jay on March 15, 2019, 10:49 am

Wouldn't be shocked to see Julio Teheran brought in via very low-cost trade in the final week of ST. Similarly, Mike Leake.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 11:09 am

I get they want to give young guys opportunities, but I don't quite understand the decision to give guys like Margevicius & Pedro Avila ST starts & innings over Perdomo when your most experienced starter has < 1 yr MLB / 26 starts.  To me, you REALLY want/need the 5th guy to be RHP so you can alternate LH/RH; don't really want 4 LHP unless the 5th guy (LH)is just light years obviously better than the 6th guy (RH).  Even if he doesn't win a SP spot, what happened to the opener/one-time-through the lineup role he was being talked about for?

Everyone bashes him, but horrendous development curve being kept as Rule 5 guy pushed up to SP.  There is clearly ability there, but he hasn't had the luxury of time as a SP in the Minors to work on sequencing, etc.  Why does everyone think Pads staff is giving up on him altogether?

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2019, 11:19 am

Quote from David Jay on March 15, 2019, 10:49 am

Wouldn't be shocked to see Julio Teheran brought in via very low-cost trade in the final week of ST. Similarly, Mike Leake.

Good options but thinking given some injury issues in ATL they might be reluctant to deal Teheran.

Both Teheran (about $11MM) and Leake (about $16MM) are not low cost salary wise but could be low cost trade chip wise.

Leake may be the more likely ... given Preller and DiPoto seem to work well together per some reports and DiPoto makes deals ... often. Seattle appears to be in the early stages of rebuilding ... Leake is in his 30s with 2 years control so should be available. Plus if you look forward .... as early as next season they will have a lot of holes to fill in the field and on the mound. If the Padres take the contract and offer prospect volume (decent but not elite) ... might work for both sides.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 11:23 am

Quote from David Jay on March 15, 2019, 10:49 am

Wouldn't be shocked to see Julio Teheran brought in via very low-cost trade in the final week of ST. Similarly, Mike Leake.

I hated the idea of trading for Leake early in the offseason, b/c I thought Pads should aim higher.

But now it sure looks like they could desperately use the 30 starts & 175-190 steady, unspectacular innings he reliably provides.

BUT now that Pads HAVE "gone for it" with Machado, the $ feels like a big issue.  Leake is effectively 2/27 but it's 11/11/5-buyout

David, or anyone, what do you think we could get Seattle to chip in?  If we could get them to kick in 10 MM 1st 2 years (leaving "2/17" @ 6/6/5) , it feels like a deal we should do...

Maybe say good prospect; NOT top 100, but just outside, like Naylor/Potts plus a Diaz/Perdomo/Kennedy type off 40-man?

Enough?  Add a 20-30 range INF prospect?

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2019, 11:53 am

Cot's has Leake at $16MM(2019) - $15MM(2020) - $5MM buyout of 2021 ... so likely we are talking about $36MM/2 years ... pricy for Leake. Would expect Preller to push Seattle to eat some contract but given the Machado move and some "optimism over the likes of Tatis and Paddack ... Padres might be a bit more flexible to take on some money to stabilize the SP for the next two years with some contention visions.

Not sure on where Seattle sits with its financial short term view ... but Padres take a bit more contract could lower the quality of the return pieces. If they move Leake's contract and King Felix's $27MM and Encarnacion's $22MM end in 2019 plus Bruce's $14MM and Gordon's $13MM end after 2020 ... Seattle quickly has a lot of salary space plus no players.

Given those salaries disappearing after 2019 and 2020 .... COULD the Padres work a deal around Myers for Leake? Myers 4 years (3 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 1 = 64MM/4 = $16MM) vs. Leake 2 years (16 + 15 + 5 = 36MM / 2 = AAV $18MM). Seattle gets a player who will not start getting big money until after their payroll clears out and will fill any one of a gaggle of holes developing. Padres take on some early money to advance their contention opportunities. Actually an even up swap is not that far a reach given the needs of both teams so maybe any "balancing" with prospects would not be that significant.

Of course Leake has a full no trade and we never know what is in the mind of players / agents ... agree to the deal for guaranteeing the option year?

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2019, 12:50 pm

Gotta imagine Leake would accept a trade back home to San Diego. I'd probably prefer Teheran, but overall I'd vastly prefer just signing one of the vet FAs out there. Gio Gonzalez would be my first choice, although really any of the remaining FAs would be fine slotting into a #5 inning eating role.

Quote from Commie on March 15, 2019, 5:22 pm

Maybe they could use Myers in the #5 spot in the rotation. He's been tried everywhere else.

Seriously though, don't move Myers for anything but an impact pitcher or high level prospects. He's the second best offensive player on the team, is a young veteran signed long term and is way more reliable than Renfroe (who has shown better since ASB last year) and can actually play D unlike Reyes. Move Renfroe dammit.  M 's should take him straight up for Leake; add a prospect if SEA will eat $ from Leake K.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 15, 2019, 6:25 pm

FENN,    The Cardinals ate 15 MM when they traded Leake to Seattle... 6 MM last year, 5 MM this year, 4 MM 2020 per Baseball Reference...

Of course I'd rather trade a lesser prospect & eat more $... but it's not my $.  Doubt ownership wants payroll up around 130 MM in a year they are an extreme dark horse to compete even with Leake...  but on the other hand, feel like the imbalance between position players & SP experience level/salary is SO extreme it's literally unsafe to the young arms as well as undermining any chance possible of competing to have no vet leading by example...

...hence the idea of Seattle "buying" a better prospect to eat some (more) of the salary?

and to get way too far ahead of myself, a "bought down" Leake is a logical rotation hole plugger as part of a trade for a better MLB SP either at deadline or more likely offseason