Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 10:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 10:26 am

Given the ebb and flow of the Soto discussions might the Padres try a mega deal with OAK for Murphy, Laureano, and Montas (as of now the best SP on the market)?

1 Murphy ... Top 3 type catcher with plus defense and controlled for three years ... currently at league minimum ... fills the defensive desire by Melvin and still can hit some with power.

2. Laureano ... good defender and average hitter but is a RHH presence for CF for three more years I think ... only at $2MM (prorated in 2022 only about +700K) and in arbitration for 2023.

3. Montas ... big time RHP controlled in 2023 ... 2022 stats on a par with Castillo (we saw the haul Castillo got) ... sets up a base SP line in 2023 of Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, and Montas ... then maybe Gore, Morejon, or re-sign Clevinger. He is only at a little over $5MM this year some still should be reasonable via his Arb 3 ... probably covered by not re-signing Manaea.

That is three upgrades costing probably $10MM in total in 2023 (less than half the cost of Soto or Otani) ... would be costly in prospects as would Soto. Still maybe $15MM left on the table to potentially sign a FA like Bell?

Not sure what Melvin thinks of the three ... but assuming he likest them ... both he and the players should meld quickly for the best immediate impact this season.

Right now ... does Soto by himself (if WASH chooses to trade him) or Murphy, Laureano, Montas give the Padres the best chance to win in 2022? 2023? Probably close to the same price in prospects but less in AAV going forward.

Don't think Laureano + Murphy move the needle on offense like Soto would...with that said...same move BUT

Add a rental like Mancini or Bell to it (separate deal) or Happ (+1yr)... and now we are talking... remember Tatis added is like Soto ++ in itself...

 

Ideally Trade 1 Montas + Sean Murphy

Trade 2 Reynolds

Trade 3 Happ + Robertson

Same cost or close to it prospect wise...to Soto /Othani ..

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 10:43 am

Aside on OAK trading to clear their roster / salaries and enter a total rebuild ... with a little work they could end up with a 2023 payroll under $30MM ... maybe under $25MM.

Consider they have only 3 players under long term deals that should end:

Andrus ($15MM) has a vesting option at 550 PA ... he is at 343 PA ... I bet somehow he does not vest.

Piscotty ($7.6MM) club option

Pinder ($2.7MM) just a FA ... expect all the them gone.

The only other big contracts are in Arb:

Montes ($5 MM) very likely to be traded

Kemp ($2.3MM) aging and underperforming ... non-tender?

Trivino ($3.0MM) ... aging and underperforming ... non-tender?

Laureano ($2.1MM) ... trade candidate?

After all them, not sure we see anyone over $1MM if they choose to go that route. That also would scream for a VOLUME of good prospects in any deals just to field a team but might allow the buyers of Montas, Murphy, Laureano to keep a few elite prospects out for more prospects plus might allow for inclusion of distant prospects (ACL/DSL) for that upside volume. Going to be a long dry spell for the low revenue A's ... unless the move to Las Vegas soon.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 10:47 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 10:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 10:26 am

Given the ebb and flow of the Soto discussions might the Padres try a mega deal with OAK for Murphy, Laureano, and Montas (as of now the best SP on the market)?

1 Murphy ... Top 3 type catcher with plus defense and controlled for three years ... currently at league minimum ... fills the defensive desire by Melvin and still can hit some with power.

2. Laureano ... good defender and average hitter but is a RHH presence for CF for three more years I think ... only at $2MM (prorated in 2022 only about +700K) and in arbitration for 2023.

3. Montas ... big time RHP controlled in 2023 ... 2022 stats on a par with Castillo (we saw the haul Castillo got) ... sets up a base SP line in 2023 of Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, and Montas ... then maybe Gore, Morejon, or re-sign Clevinger. He is only at a little over $5MM this year some still should be reasonable via his Arb 3 ... probably covered by not re-signing Manaea.

That is three upgrades costing probably $10MM in total in 2023 (less than half the cost of Soto or Otani) ... would be costly in prospects as would Soto. Still maybe $15MM left on the table to potentially sign a FA like Bell?

Not sure what Melvin thinks of the three ... but assuming he likest them ... both he and the players should meld quickly for the best immediate impact this season.

Right now ... does Soto by himself (if WASH chooses to trade him) or Murphy, Laureano, Montas give the Padres the best chance to win in 2022? 2023? Probably close to the same price in prospects but less in AAV going forward.

Don't think Laureano + Murphy move the needle on offense like Soto would...with that said...same move BUT

Add a rental like Mancini or Bell to it (separate deal) or Happ (+1yr)... and now we are talking... remember Tatis added is like Soto ++ in itself...

That is where I was going ... the OAK three fills needs at a low cost (vs Soto) leaving money on the table for a rental to boost the offense. Net have to make the same AAV offset moves if go for the rental and the OAK package so that still becomes an issue.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 10:56 am

Phillies To Acquire Edmundo Sosa From Cardinals

Dodgers To Acquire Chris Martin From Cubs

Seems like housecleaning for the Cards ... Sosa is a SS but a .189 hitter ... likely clearing a roster space move. Not really helping their rival for a playoff spot.

Martin is a 36 year old so-so middle RP (4.31 ERA) ... probably helps the LAD pen but not by much.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 11:03 am

Here is another thought

Oak Murphy + Montas cost pretty penny

NYY Gallo (CF defensive metrics > Laureano/Reynolds/Grisham) more power than all. COST next to zero

AZ Peralta + Multiply cost low

 

Murphy + Gallo + Peralta ...+ Tatis address the SLG we lack Big time

Montas allows for Manea to be traded and some spec capital recoup...Can deal Nola as well... and others

This one is more thrifty ...just looking at some postseason history and there always seems to be some guy Eckstein/Moreland (not the Super stars) that comes through ..these guys would qualify as sneaky good upgrades

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 11:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 10:56 am

Phillies To Acquire Edmundo Sosa From Cardinals

Dodgers To Acquire Chris Martin From Cubs

Seems like housecleaning for the Cards ... Sosa is a SS but a .189 hitter ... likely clearing a roster space move. Not really helping their rival for a playoff spot.

Martin is a 36 year old so-so middle RP (4.31 ERA) ... probably helps the LAD pen but not by much.

I was thinking last night ..Padres headline today..."Padres get Soto"...the Detroit Tigers closer 😆 🤣 😂..

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 11:40 am

Preller is in somewhat a bind in making deadline decisions for the pen .. either adds or deletes.

Have been waiting for the injured upgrades to emerge but:

Suarez is rehabbing in EP but can't come off the 60 day IL until Aug 5 (after the deadline)

Pomeranz was ticketed to really bolder the back end / closer role ... but is still in bullpen work and has not thrown is full live conditions plus the current think is that it will take a long rehab (once he gets there) since he has not pitched in a year ... thinking late August at best?

Johnson does not appear close to a rehab ... any goes but mid to late August?

Stammen is the unknown still lurking and in play.

Gore probably out of the picture.

However, if Suarez, Pomeranz, and Johnson all do return from the 60 day IL that creates a difficult situation on both the 26 man (none will be optioned) and the 40 man. Only a few on the 26 man can be optioned and if a RP is added he is likely one without options (or as likely one they want on the 26 man). Past the trade deadline ... so some release waivers? Plus want the best on the roster by Aug 31 for playoff roster purposes.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 12:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 11:40 am

Preller is in somewhat a bind in making deadline decisions for the pen .. either adds or deletes.

Have been waiting for the injured upgrades to emerge but:

Suarez is rehabbing in EP but can't come off the 60 day IL until Aug 5 (after the deadline)

Pomeranz was ticketed to really bolder the back end / closer role ... but is still in bullpen work and has not thrown is full live conditions plus the current think is that it will take a long rehab (once he gets there) since he has not pitched in a year ... thinking late August at best?

Johnson does not appear close to a rehab ... any goes but mid to late August?

Stammen is the unknown still lurking and in play.

Gore probably out of the picture.

However, if Suarez, Pomeranz, and Johnson all do return from the 60 day IL that creates a difficult situation on both the 26 man (none will be optioned) and the 40 man. Only a few on the 26 man can be optioned and if a RP is added he is likely one without options (or as likely one they want on the 26 man). Past the trade deadline ... so some release waivers? Plus want the best on the roster by Aug 31 for playoff roster purposes.

Azocar/Scott 2 pretty easy 40 moves.. Gore IL 60 makes it 3...any trade we make should include Efrain Contreras (40)

That's 4 40's .  Sranmen/Lamet (one to 60/one moved) ...after that Rooker/Sullivan

So that's 8 spots fairly easy... with moves there will be more..or some of these mentioned will be secondary pieces ..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 12:10 pm

Cristmat/Morejon/Baez/Wilson/Hill/Martinez/Lamet all have options