Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 11:41 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 28, 2022, 11:34 am

Hector Gomez says our offer for Soto includes Abrams, Hassell, Gore, Morejon, and Mears.

That's very nice... get it done

Quote from BoosterSD on July 28, 2022, 11:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 11:41 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 28, 2022, 11:34 am

Hector Gomez says our offer for Soto includes Abrams, Hassell, Gore, Morejon, and Mears.

That's very nice... get it done

Buster Olney was reporting many execs are considering SD as the front runners as of this morning.

But in the same tweet, goes on to mention, the same "insiders" were the ones that SD was getting Scherzer too, until LAD swooped in and got both Scherzer and Turner.

So maybe, hold our breath, but the bird isnt landed yet.

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2022, 11:57 am

I guess making a Soto deal could be more about the reality of adding him to the Padres line-up getting them to the World Series in his time with SD. Does one bat do it in 2022? With the FA to be (and a more expensive Soto) can the Padres assemble a World Series roster in 2023 ... even harder in 2024. Keeping in mind that likely the top prospects go to get Soto.

Having a great player is a good thing ... but if does not elevate the team to a better position ... is he worth the salary and the prospects to get him? Think 2022 may be the best chance under the assumption that Tatis, Myers, Suarez, Pomeranz, Johnson return and are productive. Pitching is competitive with the top teams and a Soto, Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth base in the offense could get them there ... that s a lot to assume ... no guarantees.

I see more of a challenge in 2023 with Musgrove, Manaea, Clevinger, and probably Martinez FA ... and having traded Gore or Morejon to get Soto along with other top prospects that are then not available to get quality replacements. Signing 3 FA SP that are "quality" while every other team is in the hunt is not going to happen and re-signing the departing FA will be expensive. 2024 Darvish and Snell gone ... doubt any of the recent SP draftees will be near ML ready ... making 2024 a real challenge.

So 2022 may be the best opportunity to make the World Series ... making adding Soto at the expense of a number of quality prospects justifiable. If as I see 2023 going south and 2024 going further south ... recoup some of the prospect stock by trading Soto again.

Note: adding Soto and stopping is not a good idea to winning it all. If they go for Soto ... they should push to add some "rentals" (assuming the Benintendi deal is near the model for prospects needed).

So, if my view of the future is correct, Padres need to go all out in dealing prospects to get Soto ++++ for 2022 or sit back with what may be a series of playoff runs in the next few years (depending on future moves) but not a good chance of a World Series appearance.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 28, 2022, 12:01 pm

Am I correct that between Manny, FTJ, Yu, and if Soto comes aboard and Musgroves re-signs, we'll have 5 guys making $150 million?

What does that leave for the other 21 guys?

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2022, 12:09 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 28, 2022, 11:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 11:41 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 28, 2022, 11:34 am

Hector Gomez says our offer for Soto includes Abrams, Hassell, Gore, Morejon, and Mears.

That's very nice... get it done

Buster Olney was reporting many execs are considering SD as the front runners as of this morning.

But in the same tweet, goes on to mention, the same "insiders" were the ones that SD was getting Scherzer too, until LAD swooped in and got both Scherzer and Turner.

So maybe, hold our breath, but the bird isnt landed yet.

Actually that works for me ... but what does "includes" imply? More?

Like everyone on that list (except Mears) but ... Morejon has had an injury history, Gore is a bit of talent without consistent production, Abrams is covered by the current INF (and Merrill is on the come), Hassell is not going to be around until 2024 (at best) ... so if you want to win in the near term, worth moving them.

Now the bigger question ... if that is the offer ... why is not WASH taking it? Are the Padres trying to get WASH to takes some bad contract (Hosmer?) to offset the 2022 CBT or have WASH send money?

Is there that "mystery team" that has a better package of prospects and/or does not worry about money offsets?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 12:09 pm

• 1. Martin Perez, LHP Four-Star Prospects

2. Jurickson Profar, SS

3. Tanner Scheppers, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

4. Engel Beltre, CF

5. Michael Kirkman, LHP

6. Robbie Erlin, LHP

7. Jake Skole, OF

8. Luis Sardinas, SS

9. Jorge Alfaro, C

10. Mike Olt, 3B

 

For Prospect hughers....this was rhe # 1 system in baseball in 2011.. Texas Rangers... i would give up the entire top 10 for Soto or Othani...just saying if we traded our entire topb10 we could possibly end up with BOTH Soto AND Othani

 

11 yrs later we are starting 2 of these prospects... sooo..all chips in LFGSD

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2022, 12:21 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on July 28, 2022, 12:01 pm

Am I correct that between Manny, FTJ, Yu, and if Soto comes aboard and Musgroves re-signs, we'll have 5 guys making $150 million?

What does that leave for the other 21 guys?

Using AAV probably closer to $125MM for 2022 for those 5 but don't forget Hosmer and some guaranteed contracts for Pomeranz, Kim, and Garcia and potentially the opt ins for Profar, Martinez, and Suarez ... does leave a lot of money under the CBT for filling out the rest of the roster. Not optimal but maybe workable if everyone stays healthy.

Still have Campusano, Merrill, and Wood as prime trade chips to get more parts (SP, CF, C, closer) to fill the remaining holes with lower cost options.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 12:29 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on July 28, 2022, 12:01 pm

Am I correct that between Manny, FTJ, Yu, and if Soto comes aboard and Musgroves re-signs, we'll have 5 guys making $150 million?

What does that leave for the other 21 guys?

Payroll for 23 including opt outs of Profar/Martinez but not Hos or Suarez..

Has about $70mil left ..Musgrove deal + Soto arb (unless we extend and buy out arb x2 and finesse the Lux Tax implications for 23 and 24)... i am guessing somewhere around $30 mil...before trades and all..

2024 has another $65mil dropping off the books...

We would have every position covered with an OF of Tatis LF/Grish/Soto RF...

A bench of Beatty /Ruiz/Nola/ Batten

A loaded 10-13 arms BP a bit green (lots of rookies) But anchored by Pomz/Suarez/Adams/Garcia

SP Yu/Snell/Musgrove/XYZ/XYZ

So internal options left after Soto proposed trade would be Wethers/Khner/Lawson

With money left we could resign Manea/ go after other cheaper options.. ride with the 3 SP and the young guns and approach the deadline next season with a SP need ..

Too many trades besides Soto to consider now or in the offseason..to worry about what $$ and other factors would be available for 23

Maybe if we stay under now 22... and head into the offseason who is to say Seidler doesn't ok a $245 mil (under tier 2) payroll ..with the rest of 2022 lux tax...Lux tax 2023 tier 1 penalty drops to 10% meaning the excess $15mil would only = $1.5 mil penalty ..just thinking out loud..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 12:40 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2022, 12:09 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 28, 2022, 11:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 28, 2022, 11:41 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 28, 2022, 11:34 am

Hector Gomez says our offer for Soto includes Abrams, Hassell, Gore, Morejon, and Mears.

That's very nice... get it done

Buster Olney was reporting many execs are considering SD as the front runners as of this morning.

But in the same tweet, goes on to mention, the same "insiders" were the ones that SD was getting Scherzer too, until LAD swooped in and got both Scherzer and Turner.

So maybe, hold our breath, but the bird isnt landed yet.

Actually that works for me ... but what does "includes" imply? More?

Like everyone on that list (except Mears) but ... Morejon has had an injury history, Gore is a bit of talent without consistent production, Abrams is covered by the current INF (and Merrill is on the come), Hassell is not going to be around until 2024 (at best) ... so if you want to win in the near term, worth moving them.

Now the bigger question ... if that is the offer ... why is not WASH taking it? Are the Padres trying to get WASH to takes some bad contract (Hosmer?) to offset the 2022 CBT or have WASH send money?

Is there that "mystery team" that has a better package of prospects and/or does not worry about money offsets?

That's the million dollar ? My guess as an outsider..just like Hector's proposed reported deal are not necessarily 100% accurate... is that maybe Nats want to see Gore's medical tests as he sees the doctors today or tomorrow.. before agreeing to any trade....as they should

Nats maybe waiting on Cards final offer or others...

Etc etc... without being AJP we can speculate all we want .. but we won't really know what has been brewing behind close doors... what if Othani is who AJP really wants and is waiting on LAA for y or n ...or maybe he wants Soto + Bell but needs to trade Myers to get there????? Hopefully many of thesen?these?? Will be answered and to our liking and soon!