Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 25, 2022, 6:47 pm

Bo Mel please play Ruiz...Batten and CJ... these Vets don't want to play

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 26, 2022, 7:16 am

Walker (AZ) best Defensive 1B in 2022 should be in a plane to SD right now...Hosmer is #15.. with -6.9DRS... before last night.. if he had 20HR and 60 RBIS I wouldn't care.... But he doesn't so let's get him the Fk out of town...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 26, 2022, 8:13 am

Could a Bell + Corbin + Soto deal work?

If Washington picks up all their $$ for 2022

Padres send Hosmer +$15 mil (pay the rest of 2022 as well to keep status quo Lux Tax) +Lamet + Myers (to clear 40 roster spots..again we pay 2022)... Future money owed Corbin ($59/2)..Future money saved Hos (3/24 after -$15).. Net $$ in for 2023 and 2024 Lux tax = + 11 in 23/ +22 in 24...-13 in 25 .

Taking on Corbin fills at least #5 SP and who knows if Petco/winning = a better Corbin...but even this inning eater #5 expensive take on could be worth it.. and lower the cost somewhat for Soto. ..

Hassell + CJ + Ruiz (hate it but Nats want MLB ready specs ) + Susana + Knerr + Zavala... +3 more 40 out (3 in 6 out -3 for some of the incoming reinforcements)

Beyond 22 - Bell.. 1B Crone (Kowhley?,/other).. 2B Kim/Rosario/Crone..SS Tatis/Kim/Rosario still have coverage in 23..IF sane or improved vs (Hosmer at 1B)..2022.

Soto RF/Grish CF/Tatis LF.. works for me as well.. add Mazara low cost back.. or other...

Post season push lineup post trade 22

1. Tatis Jr LF

2. Soto RF

3. Manny 3B

4. Bell 1B

5. Crone zone 2B

6. Mazara/Voit DH

7. Alfaro/Nola C

8. Kim SS

9. Grish CF

Lineup looks very good and I like our chances with it ..

Quote from fenn68 on July 26, 2022, 10:06 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 26, 2022, 8:13 am

Could a Bell + Corbin + Soto deal work?

If Washington picks up all their $$ for 2022

Padres send Hosmer +$15 mil (pay the rest of 2022 as well to keep status quo Lux Tax) +Lamet + Myers (to clear 40 roster spots..again we pay 2022)... Future money owed Corbin ($59/2)..Future money saved Hos (3/24 after -$15).. Net $$ in for 2023 and 2024 Lux tax = + 11 in 23/ +22 in 24...-13 in 25 .

Taking on Corbin fills at least #5 SP and who knows if Petco/winning = a better Corbin...but even this inning eater #5 expensive take on could be worth it.. and lower the cost somewhat for Soto. ..

Hassell + CJ + Ruiz (hate it but Nats want MLB ready specs ) + Susana + Knerr + Zavala... +3 more 40 out (3 in 6 out -3 for some of the incoming reinforcements)

Beyond 22 - Bell.. 1B Crone (Kowhley?,/other).. 2B Kim/Rosario/Crone..SS Tatis/Kim/Rosario still have coverage in 23..IF sane or improved vs (Hosmer at 1B)..2022.

Soto RF/Grish CF/Tatis LF.. works for me as well.. add Mazara low cost back.. or other...

Post season push lineup post trade 22

1. Tatis Jr LF

2. Soto RF

3. Manny 3B

4. Bell 1B

5. Crone zone 2B

6. Mazara/Voit DH

7. Alfaro/Nola C

8. Kim SS

9. Grish CF

Lineup looks very good and I like our chances with it ..

Yes but think you are way light on the prospects going to WASH. I looked at the same principles in a deal a little differently with a focus on "cash" for WASH since they have no AAV issue and "AAV" for SD since that may be the bigger issue than cash.

Part 1: (current year) WASH sends Soto - Bell - Corbin (annual AAV $50.4MM) and SD sends Hosmer - Myers - Lamet (annual AAV $36.6MM) ... net difference of $13.8MM ... prorated for the remainder of 2022 would be about $5MM ... so to balance to net zero WASH sends $5MM with the players to SD. SD remains under CBT.

Part 2a: (future years) WASH from a cash basis has Hosmer, Lamet, and a buyout of Myers (about $19MM) in 2023 but avoids Soto and Corbin (about $50MM) ... cash savings of $31MM to justify the 2022 transfer of $5MM. Then in 2024 WASH still has Hosmer ($13MM) but not Soto and Corbin (about $55MM) than add 2025 for Hosmer ($13MM) and net WASH 2024-5 saves about $29MM. Overall Wash would save $55MM.

Part 2b: (future years) SD may be more concerned with AAV and the need to add to the offense / re-sign some SP, so net in the deal for 2023 SD would add about $27MM in AAV and in 2024 add about $$42MM of the stand pat.

After that the deal hinges on the prospects going to WASH (adjusting for the value of them saving about $55MM) but trading 3 playoff runs of Soto and a playoff run of Bell (both in demand by others) to end up with three bodies that apparently no one else wants? One way to view this is trading Hosmer - Myers for Corbin is a push of dead money for underperforming players and a net zero transaction.

That leaves the Padres getting Soto and Bell for $50MM and Lamet. What level of prospects make up the difference given the potential other suitors? Probably a strong package than you suggested.

Assuming the Padres balk on including Cronenworth (guessing WASH would push for him as an All-Star with 3 years control and cheap) ... would have thought Gore (if he were not injured) and Abrams as the headliners with Campusano and Rosario as the top of the deal ... all at or near ML ready. With Gore injured ... Morejon may be their alternative demand. If they pushed for Hassell ... not sure who would be deleted from the deal. Given the cash savings to WASH ... would expect the depth of top prospects to be lower and maybe only 2-3 included.

Side: although some of those high ceiling prospects in Rookie Ball (even low A) are appealing ... see them as more the 4th or 5th piece in a deal of this magnitude ... too far from the ML / too high a risk of failure vs a "sure thing" in Soto / Bell.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2022, 10:39 am

So right now, we have basically 2 SP that we can "count on" in Musgrove and Darvish. One SP that is going to be on an innings limit in Clevinger. And 2 SP that are good, but have been up and down in performance in Snell and Manaea. Manaea and Snell really need to pull their heads out!!

I really think a back end innings eater at a 4-5 ERA guy is going to be needed. Someone who can keep us in a game, and hope the offense gets it together. Davies is a good option still IMO.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2022, 10:56 am

I know some of us on here have focused on getting Castillo from CIN, however, we all know that Preller has always had interest in Syndergaard.

He is making $21M this season in LAA and they are not going any where this season. So Myers, Lamet, Weathers, and one more decent prospect for Syndergaard? Myers and Lamet balance out the money for Syndergaard, so it would be at that time, Weathers and prospect for Syndergarrd?

Quote from fenn68 on July 26, 2022, 11:06 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2022, 10:39 am

So right now, we have basically 2 SP that we can "count on" in Musgrove and Darvish. One SP that is going to be on an innings limit in Clevinger. And 2 SP that are good, but have been up and down in performance in Snell and Manaea. Manaea and Snell really need to pull their heads out!!

I really think a back end innings eater at a 4-5 ERA guy is going to be needed. Someone who can keep us in a game, and hope the offense gets it together. Davies is a good option still IMO.

Hope is a bad strategy ... but do like Davies who would be a low cost add (money and a prospect).

Quote from fenn68 on July 26, 2022, 11:17 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2022, 10:56 am

I know some of us on here have focused on getting Castillo from CIN, however, we all know that Preller has always had interest in Syndergaard.

He is making $21M this season in LAA and they are not going any where this season. So Myers, Lamet, Weathers, and one more decent prospect for Syndergaard? Myers and Lamet balance out the money for Syndergaard, so it would be at that time, Weathers and prospect for Syndergarrd?

Syndergaard is pitching well ... think LAA could get a better return from someone (although actually have not heard any Synergaard rumors). FA after the season and for the remainder of 2022 "only" about $7MM.

If nothing else a team with money that needs pitching would not have to try to push an offsetting contracts on LAA. If the Padres wanted the LAA to eat Syndergaard's contract ... that return prospect(s) would have to be better (and not include Lamet). Maybe more in the Rosario - Knehr (or Weathers) zone for a "rental" if LAA considers Snydergaard's salary "dead money" and other offers are weak.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 26, 2022, 11:40 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 26, 2022, 10:56 am

I know some of us on here have focused on getting Castillo from CIN, however, we all know that Preller has always had interest in Syndergaard.

He is making $21M this season in LAA and they are not going any where this season. So Myers, Lamet, Weathers, and one more decent prospect for Syndergaard? Myers and Lamet balance out the money for Syndergaard, so it would be at that time, Weathers and prospect for Syndergarrd?

I may be in the minority but I think Wethers will be really really good ..so not trading him for 2 months of Noah... He is still super young