Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2022, 1:41 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 25, 2022, 1:27 pm

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mlbpa-rejects-mlbs-final-proposal-on-international-draft.html

MLBPA rejects Intl propossal...this helps us a lot in the Offseason can still use the QO on certain FA...

BTW LF becoming a black hole..last 30 days Profar .631 OPS.. no slg..low .300 OBP.. and low  200 BA... and he is leading off

With Intl out of the way..trade market should heat up

Other than Musgrove … not sure who the Padres would put a QO on which will be around $18MM. Clearly not Myers, Mazara, or Profar if he opts out. Musgrove yes but not Rogers, Clevinger, Manaea, Johnson, Stammen lest they actually accept.

On the opposite side … if another team is marketing a “rental” who would garner a QO would now have an equivalent of a Comp Pick as a floor. Guessing Contreras, Bell, Benintendi, et al might now cost a bit more in a situation with a low number of potential buyers.

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2022, 1:50 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2022, 1:06 pm

As good as Kim has been against LHP, Bogaerts is that much better.

Kim in 2022 v LHP-.308/.402/.464 with an OPS of .884

Bogaerts in 2022 v. LHP-.384/.477/.548 with an ops of 1.025.....huge. Not to mention what Bogaerts is doing v. RHP which is .100 points across the board better than Kim, and there will not be that much difference in D between the two, if any.

Plus, you could include Kim in the players going back for the salary relief. Snell, Kim, and Voit CBT numbers are more than Bogaerts. All 3 have control for 2023 (2024 for Kim) so that helps BOS from having to go full rebuild, which would appease the fans to some point.

SD would then have the season balance of about $2M for another add, not to mention that Tatis would upgrade the OF bat wise, and even the guys on ESPN last night, said that Tatis could easily handle, in season, the switch to LF or even CF. So get Bogaerts, and SD line up would look something like this,

1. Profar - CF, 2. Crone-2B, 3. Machado - 3B, 4. Bogaerts - SS, 5. Tatis - LF, 6. Mazara - RF, 7. Myers - DH/1B, 8. Hosmer - 1B, Alfaro/Nola - C.

In the Boston scenario they are planning to return Story to SS once Bogarts departs … so SS is not a need. Yeh, probably would take a short term contract or two in the deal but the key will be the prospect(s) for longer term benefit … they are not going to be relevant next year or the following so the benefit of Snell and Voit is minimal … may take them but not their main objective.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2022, 2:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2022, 1:50 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2022, 1:06 pm

As good as Kim has been against LHP, Bogaerts is that much better.

Kim in 2022 v LHP-.308/.402/.464 with an OPS of .884

Bogaerts in 2022 v. LHP-.384/.477/.548 with an ops of 1.025.....huge. Not to mention what Bogaerts is doing v. RHP which is .100 points across the board better than Kim, and there will not be that much difference in D between the two, if any.

Plus, you could include Kim in the players going back for the salary relief. Snell, Kim, and Voit CBT numbers are more than Bogaerts. All 3 have control for 2023 (2024 for Kim) so that helps BOS from having to go full rebuild, which would appease the fans to some point.

SD would then have the season balance of about $2M for another add, not to mention that Tatis would upgrade the OF bat wise, and even the guys on ESPN last night, said that Tatis could easily handle, in season, the switch to LF or even CF. So get Bogaerts, and SD line up would look something like this,

1. Profar - CF, 2. Crone-2B, 3. Machado - 3B, 4. Bogaerts - SS, 5. Tatis - LF, 6. Mazara - RF, 7. Myers - DH/1B, 8. Hosmer - 1B, Alfaro/Nola - C.

In the Boston scenario they are planning to return Story to SS once Bogarts departs … so SS is not a need. Yeh, probably would take a short term contract or two in the deal but the key will be the prospect(s) for longer term benefit … they are not going to be relevant next year or the following so the benefit of Snell and Voit is minimal … may take them but not their main objective.

I never believed that Snell, Kim, Voit would be the package or the main objective. Just a ways to meet SD's CBT need. There still would need to be the "real package" going to BOS which would be the prospects.

Kim would allow Story and Devers to switch between DH and their position, plus cover injury like Devers this season. Plus, Kim could probably handle 2B for them as well.

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2022, 2:37 pm

Kim could also take over 2B for Story. For Kim’s money … not likely a bench option.

Bigger issue is Padres get only 2 months of Bogarts while opening up multiple holes in 2023 for a SP (noting the FA to be), DH (like Voit or not), and back-up INF (especially if they use Abrams in a trade before next season for an impact OF or pitcher).

Get BOST to take Myers or Hosmer and just pack in a few better prospects.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2022, 2:40 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 25, 2022, 2:37 pm

Kim could also take over 2B for Story. For Kim’s money … not likely a bench option.

Bigger issue is Padres get only 2 months of Bogarts while opening up multiple holes in 2023 for a SP (noting the FA to be), DH (like Voit or not), and back-up INF (especially if they use Abrams in a trade before next season for an impact OF or pitcher).

Get BOST to take Myers or Hosmer and just pack in a few better prospects.

As I think someone else mentioned, a Myers/Bogaerts swap is almost identical money, and both are/or expected to be FA after the end of the season. So, yes I could see BOS including $2-3M to finish the CBT dollar swap, and then get 2 mid+ type prospects back.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 25, 2022, 2:42 pm

I would expect some regression from Bogaerts against lefties. .309/.389/.473 for a .862 career OPS. Given his longer track record he's probably still an upgrade on Kim against lefties, but I don't think it's that significant a gap. Against RHP I think it would be a significant improvement over Abrams or Kim, but I also think we could see a Tatis/Kim and Grisham/Tatis platoon situation when Tatis gets back. Tatis gets to stay as the primary SS, there's less riding on him transitioning to the OF and more flexibility if Abrams or Grisham get going.

I also don't think Snell has much trade value at this point. He's a 10m AAV for us, but it would be closer to 15m for a team that trades for him. I doubt there will be much interest in him. Same goes for Voit. He's looking like an off-season non-tender candidate at this point.

I didn't mention Happ simply because I was focusing only on other rentals in comparison to Bogaerts. I would love to have him. In a dream world maybe we can use 1 or 2 of the top prospects to pickup Contreras and Happ while shedding Hosmer and Lamet. Then you could flip Alfaro somewhere and possibly have enough room to squeeze in Bell.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 25, 2022, 2:52 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 25, 2022, 2:42 pm

I would expect some regression from Bogaerts against lefties. .309/.389/.473 for a .862 career OPS. Given his longer track record he's probably still an upgrade on Kim against lefties, but I don't think it's that significant a gap. Against RHP I think it would be a significant improvement over Abrams or Kim, but I also think we could see a Tatis/Kim and Grisham/Tatis platoon situation when Tatis gets back. Tatis gets to stay as the primary SS, there's less riding on him transitioning to the OF and more flexibility if Abrams or Grisham get going.

I also don't think Snell has much trade value at this point. He's a 10m AAV for us, but it would be closer to 15m for a team that trades for him. I doubt there will be much interest in him. Same goes for Voit. He's looking like an off-season non-tender candidate at this point.

I didn't mention Happ simply because I was focusing only on other rentals in comparison to Bogaerts. I would love to have him. In a dream world maybe we can use 1 or 2 of the top prospects to pickup Contreras and Happ while shedding Hosmer and Lamet. Then you could flip Alfaro somewhere and possibly have enough room to squeeze in Bell.

 

Snell stuff is electric.. teams will pay a premium .. especially if he has another outing like last one... his 3rd great outing out of last 4... if he makes it 4 out of 5...look out...

Last 14.2 IP 21 SO

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 25, 2022, 3:15 pm

No one is paying a premium based on 3 starts after a year and a half of mediocrity.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 25, 2022, 3:48 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 25, 2022, 3:15 pm

No one is paying a premium based on 3 starts after a year and a half of mediocrity.

Well 2nd half last yr he was CY like...

 

Not saying premium return...but definetely a decent one ...like 2 45's and a 40...or a 50 and 2 40s...