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Trades June/July/Deadline
#651 · July 24, 2022, 4:20 pm
If I thought a Soto deal to the Padres had zero probability .... a Soto/Corbin is sub-zero. Adding Corbin is a killer contract for near zero production ... and a very very faint hope he can even be bottom of the rotation material after his last three seasons at his age.
I don't under-estimate the problems any team taking on $60MM over 2023-4 for nothing. (did not adjust for partial 2022 but Corbin would have an AAV pushing $30MM in 2023. Soto will have a $25MM AAV via arbitration. Padres have Machado at $30MM ... Tatis in the mid-$20sMM ... Darvish at $20MM ... Snell at $10MM ... Hosmer at $18MM ... Pomeranz at $8MM... plus Cronenworth with his 1st ARB price. Then maybe Musgrove at $25MM.
That would be around $190-195MM+/- for 10 players ... add $20MM for benefits, etc .. and close to $215MM and only 18MM under the treshold ... for 16 players. (plus some on IL). Not going to have much of a supporting cast ... thinking the OF and RP since all the rest will need to be near the league minimum. Then a odd bid if Martinez, Suarez, and Profar opt in ... that would take the Padres over and still needing 13 players.
Basically it would not be pretty in 2023 with the players being let go to fit ... and maybe not so easy to trade them.
I see two teams that could play ... TOR and SF both with need for Soto and a pitcher ... prospects ... payroll space. NYY may be the wild card if they plan to let Judge go as a FA ... money will not be an issue ... they have prospects ... and in 2022 with both Soto and Judge on an already dominant team ... whew a real WS threat. Add that they do have the resources to sign Soto long term.
#652 · July 24, 2022, 6:08 pm
OK, time to crank up the Bogarts from the Red Sox rumors.
Watching the ESPN coverage of the Padres game … a couple of comments:
1. Siedler is seen as one of the most aggressive owners and is willing to spend
2. The Padres have a very high evaluation of Bogarts
3. Boston looks like a seller.
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Bogarts can hit … guessing the Padres would slide him directly into SS (displacing Kim who goes to the bench) … and when Tatis returns Tatis goes to CF/RF.
Who goes to the Red Sox in terms of prospects probably depends on what Boston will eat in Borgarts and/or what contracts they take back.
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Bogarts could (and likely will) opt out after 2022 so have to think of this as a rental … so maybe not an over the top price to pay in prospects.
#653 · July 24, 2022, 6:53 pm
Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 6:08 pmOK, time to crank up the Bogarts from the Red Sox rumors.
Watching the ESPN coverage of the Padres game … a couple of comments:
1. Siedler is seen as one of the most aggressive owners and is willing to spend
2. The Padres have a very high evaluation of Bogarts
3. Boston looks like a seller.
—————————-
Bogarts can hit … guessing the Padres would slide him directly into SS (displacing Kim who goes to the bench) … and when Tatis returns Tatis goes to CF/RF.
Who goes to the Red Sox in terms of prospects probably depends on what Boston will eat in Borgarts and/or what contracts they take back.
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Bogarts could (and likely will) opt out after 2022 so have to think of this as a rental … so maybe not an over the top price to pay in prospects.
You would think that they would want Abrams, an almost ready ML SS, for a SS. And then maybe Knerr and Weathers and include Snell to help offset dollars.
#654 · July 24, 2022, 7:41 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 24, 2022, 6:53 pmQuote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 6:08 pmOK, time to crank up the Bogarts from the Red Sox rumors.
Watching the ESPN coverage of the Padres game … a couple of comments:
1. Siedler is seen as one of the most aggressive owners and is willing to spend
2. The Padres have a very high evaluation of Bogarts
3. Boston looks like a seller.
—————————-
Bogarts can hit … guessing the Padres would slide him directly into SS (displacing Kim who goes to the bench) … and when Tatis returns Tatis goes to CF/RF.
Who goes to the Red Sox in terms of prospects probably depends on what Boston will eat in Borgarts and/or what contracts they take back.
—————————-
Bogarts could (and likely will) opt out after 2022 so have to think of this as a rental … so maybe not an over the top price to pay in prospects.
You would think that they would want Abrams, an almost ready ML SS, for a SS. And then maybe Knerr and Weathers and include Snell to help offset dollars.
They can want Abrams all they want…..for two months of Bogaerts they ain’t getting him.
#655 · July 24, 2022, 7:58 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 24, 2022, 6:53 pmQuote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 6:08 pmOK, time to crank up the Bogarts from the Red Sox rumors.
Watching the ESPN coverage of the Padres game … a couple of comments:
1. Siedler is seen as one of the most aggressive owners and is willing to spend
2. The Padres have a very high evaluation of Bogarts
3. Boston looks like a seller.
—————————-
Bogarts can hit … guessing the Padres would slide him directly into SS (displacing Kim who goes to the bench) … and when Tatis returns Tatis goes to CF/RF.
Who goes to the Red Sox in terms of prospects probably depends on what Boston will eat in Borgarts and/or what contracts they take back.
—————————-
Bogarts could (and likely will) opt out after 2022 so have to think of this as a rental … so maybe not an over the top price to pay in prospects.
You would think that they would want Abrams, an almost ready ML SS, for a SS. And then maybe Knerr and Weathers and include Snell to help offset dollars.
It's 2 months ..they get Mears and like it
#656 · July 25, 2022, 3:14 am
Abrams too much
Mears too little
Rosario just right
#657 · July 25, 2022, 3:45 am
Took a look at Boston’s payroll and their potential for taking on an expensive contract to get a better package of prospects … they can.
This year they are about $6MM over the tax threshold and moving Bogarts would take them under. However, if the can live with a 2022 overage to get a better trade … they are on track to drop (potentially) about $100MM in AAV next season … so no real threat of exceeding the CBT next year and would reset the penalties.
If they took back Myers and contributed some cash to balance out money … they should get a better prospect(s). For them, with Myers a FA, they come out the same financially for 2023 but with new prospects.
Of course taking Hosmer could be argued is a better 2022 cash equivalent reducing the cash Boston would need to add (although the cash added is dead money). Just not sure whether Boston would see gaining Homser at $39MM/3 years is a plus or minus in terms of sizing the prospect return. Not even sure of the Padres position on moving Hosmer (right now in the playoff push) … would they add a better prospect(s) to get him in the deal or argue less?
I could see a deal that fits both … the prospect(s) may be sized by who else is in the bidding.
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I do see Bogarts opting out of the remaining $60MM/3 years at age 29 and coming off a good season he should pull a long term guaranteed deal (8 years?) at an AAV pushing $25-30MM. Padres probably would not be bidding in that range and more likely go with Tatis back to SS .. or Kim/Abrams.
#658 · July 25, 2022, 6:34 am
Someone like Voit or Alfaro could flourish in Bos. and dent the Green Monster.
If we get Contreras(Catcher) or Bell(1B/DH) maybe one of those guys could be included in a deal with Boston?
#659 · July 25, 2022, 7:26 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 25, 2022, 6:34 amSomeone like Voit or Alfaro could flourish in Bos. and dent the Green Monster.
If we get Contreras(Catcher) or Bell(1B/DH) maybe one of those guys could be included in a deal with Boston?
They would, but guessing Boston’s focus will be on the prospect(s) that will be around for years. Boston’s roster if all the FA depart is really bad … Cris Sale (alway injured), Trevor Story and Raphael Devers then very little out of the other 23 (if we can identify who the other 23 will be given the volume of FA, “old” players, underperformers, injured). Then worse Devers is a FA after 2023 and he will be shooting for that Tatis / Soto contract.
Hard to see how Boston can even contend in the AL East for years. I guess the question is what would they do in a trade to max the prospect(s) return. How to balance volume vs. quality considering a “rental” deals of Bogarts and Martinez will not generate a blue chip prospect. They are positioned well to take on a bad contract to get that prospect(s) upgrade.
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Side: on last nights broadcast it was suggested that the METS may become serious bidders for Martinez (money for them is no issue) and filling their hole at DH will posit them well to stay ahead of ATL and matching up with the LAD.
#660 · July 25, 2022, 7:27 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 25, 2022, 6:34 amSomeone like Voit or Alfaro could flourish in Bos. and dent the Green Monster.
If we get Contreras(Catcher) or Bell(1B/DH) maybe one of those guys could be included in a deal with Boston?
I think Voit/Myers/Hosmer all move before Alfaro...
P wise Snell is the right one to trade...
Obviously guys like CJ/Gore/maybe Ruiz could be ex Padres (Soto)
If we add Soto/Xander and Drury we would have great Flexibility in our lineup...
For P depth with (2) departures from SP.. + 1 SP Zach Davies would fit in nicely at the back end of the rotation
The thing with Alfaro is that he is like the most popular guy on the team.. all the Latin players like him..all the gringos love him..and is a fan favorite..his contract is too low to accommodate $$ (so is Nolas ) and I an warming up to the idea of keeping both... then again IF we add Contreras and w/DH.. we can have 2 C in the lineup.. Contreras/Alfaro DH/C...Nola C
If we get Contreras(Catcher) or Bell(1B/DH) maybe one of those guys could be included in a deal with Boston?
I think Voit/Myers/Hosmer all move before Alfaro...
P wise Snell is the right one to trade...
Obviously guys like CJ/Gore/maybe Ruiz could be ex Padres (Soto)
If we add Soto/Xander and Drury we would have great Flexibility in our lineup...
For P depth with (2) departures from SP.. + 1 SP Zach Davies would fit in nicely at the back end of the rotation