Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 10:25 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 10:19 am

Speaking of CS%... Nola is a big problem with only 13%...Alfaro 25%... (Contreras 24% btw)...But Nola has allowed like 30+ SB..and that is no good..especially I'm post season where a BB a SB and a bloop might be the difference between a W and a L...

How many with Darvish pitching?

Does Nola catch Darvish more than Alfaro?

He is not good at holding runners and very slow to the plate.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 10:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 10:25 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 10:19 am

Speaking of CS%... Nola is a big problem with only 13%...Alfaro 25%... (Contreras 24% btw)...But Nola has allowed like 30+ SB..and that is no good..especially I'm post season where a BB a SB and a bloop might be the difference between a W and a L...

How many with Darvish pitching?

Does Nola catch Darvish more than Alfaro?

He is not good at holding runners and very slow to the plate.

 

I think Nola has caught every Yu game..

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 11:01 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 9:46 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 8:01 am

Not sure I want to help the Phillies ..bit they had the #1 ranked SP until a couple of their SP went down...

Snell + Voit + Myers to Phillies

Kyle Schwarber to SD

We get an absolute thumper (30 HRs already)... and unlike Luke can play a little OF ..has better foot speed as well

The trade gives Phillies a bit more flex in their lineup and improves their SP... we also shed (Prorated $38mil and it's lux tax calculations and exchange it for $19.725 for 22...with an option ($3mil to buy out Kyle OR take on 3/60 left in the offseason)

More of a $$ move to gain leverage in potential deals .. and upgrade the power department a lot...

With Harper out I don’t see the Phils trading their top LH power guy.

I think they will fade but it will be well after the deadline.(tough inter division games)

I think they hold or even buy….but if they buy it will end up a mistake.

The Cards are Brewers are the opposite…..both will make the playoffs (easy Division games ) and I could see the Cards adding a pitcher (Castillo) and the Brewers a bat.

Agree with that logic ... see the Phillies and the Giants being the two out of the playoffs even if they make a move.

Cards I can see adding ... maybe a big piece. MILW may need a big piece ... but not sure the have the will (player assets / money) to make the move. With LAD - NYM - ATL positioned to get the two byes and #1 WC .... STL/MILW both may be vying for is winning the NL Central and getting home field advantage in the first wild card series (maybe against each other). Of course they both will want to be better in the playoffs ... so motivated for some move(s) ...

From that perspective ... think a playoff spot is the Padres to lose at this point being in a good spot as the 2nd WC. Play the 1st WC on the road the way this is setting up (NYM or ATL).

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 11:10 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 9:50 am

Are we sure Campusanos’ value is tanking?

He’s still hitting (yes it’s the PCL) and with the DH now in the NL I can’t imagine a team needing a C and/or offense shying away from him.

His Slug% is down but everything else is pretty much in line with last season.

 

 

In my mind he would still be a trade chip (yes, teams would want him) but has lost a lot of his return potential. Barely over .300 in the PCL and much less power than thought takes a bit of the shine off him being more than a good ML hitter at ceiling. As for defensively, one of the issues was his calling game / handling pitchers and have not heard anything suggesting that part of his game has improved. Yes, he has a big arm, but a lot more to being a good catcher than that (ask Gary Sanchez).

He is not a yes / no trade chip .... just where on the sliding scale of value does he now sit. I think lower than a year ago.

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 11:17 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 10:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 10:25 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 10:19 am

Speaking of CS%... Nola is a big problem with only 13%...Alfaro 25%... (Contreras 24% btw)...But Nola has allowed like 30+ SB..and that is no good..especially I'm post season where a BB a SB and a bloop might be the difference between a W and a L...

How many with Darvish pitching?

Does Nola catch Darvish more than Alfaro?

He is not good at holding runners and very slow to the plate.

 

I think Nola has caught every Yu game..

That might be a reason NOT to move on from Nola ... Darvish is a hard guy to catch ... call a game with Darvish's array of pitches ... dropping anyone new might reduce Darvish's effectiveness in the last two months.

On the game last night they were talking about Bassett's hot start to the season with McCann catching ... McCann gets hurt ... Nido comes in and Bassett's ERA skies and he is ineffective for a series of starts until Bassett / Nido / the coaches got them all on the same page. Can't afford that to happen down the stretch with Darvish.

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 2:59 pm

Might not be directly linked to the immediate concerns about this deadline but might have some implications if looking ahead (or trying to deal Lamet) ... service time remaining:

Lamet has been labeled as having one more year of control (2023) BUT looking at Roster Resource he entered the year with 4.130 years and only has ... so far ... added about 30-35 more days ... not enough to cross the 5 year mark. If I understand the calculation correctly, if he would need about 42 days to earn that 5th year ... so he is close. So, if he is not recalled for the rest of the year ... Padres (or another buyer) would get 2 years control? He is 30 and in AAA ... so not sure that is a big selling point given his $4.5MM contract but can always be DFA.

Castillo who is not on the 40 man (but was) actually has 3.121 years of service time (mostly on the ML DL) ... so had (if) the Padres added him and called him up for just over 50 days in 2022 they would effectively lose a year of control. As it is he will only have 3 control years. Maybe part of the reason not to rush him back from injury and to the ML now. Hopefully he becomes that elite late game force ... and 3 years is better than 2 years ... so maybe in the thinking process.

Not 100% sure I got that all right ... but think that is the essence of the rules.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 3:26 pm

Saw this

The Nationals have told prospective bidders that
including LHP Patrick Corbin (2.5 years, $70 million
remaining) is a “must” in a Soto deal
According to one Nationals insider who was initially
skeptical the team would actually trade Soto rather
than letting the new owners make that decision,
interest has been so aggressive he’d now be surprised
if they don’t deal him.
From the #STLCards, the Nationals want #1 prospect
3B Jordan Walker, plus SS Masyn Winn (#4 prospect)
in addition to either 1B Luken Baker (#12 prospect) or
LHP Connor Thomas (#15 prospect)

 

The return sounds light w/Corbin...but that contract is horse caca. If there is a way Nats pay the rest of 22 for Soto and Corbin..thus reseting our lux tax.. then AJP can stay under or blow past it in 23 or 24 with only 10% vs 30% penalty.. in 24 when Corbin goes to $35 mil ..Yu drops off -$20mil But that's a big $$ commitment for 2024.. even with Soto + Mus and Corbin we would be at $155 ish towards 2024 *currently at $88... leaving $75 for the rest of the team..sure that is more than some teams entire payroll but for a contending team is not much

With that said IF Corbin finds the fountain of youth that would be a good start and/or 2 we could always trade Soto after 23 w/Corbin attached for a decent HAUL as well..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 3:28 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 2:59 pm

Might not be directly linked to the immediate concerns about this deadline but might have some implications if looking ahead (or trying to deal Lamet) ... service time remaining:

Lamet has been labeled as having one more year of control (2023) BUT looking at Roster Resource he entered the year with 4.130 years and only has ... so far ... added about 30-35 more days ... not enough to cross the 5 year mark. If I understand the calculation correctly, if he would need about 42 days to earn that 5th year ... so he is close. So, if he is not recalled for the rest of the year ... Padres (or another buyer) would get 2 years control? He is 30 and in AAA ... so not sure that is a big selling point given his $4.5MM contract but can always be DFA.

Castillo who is not on the 40 man (but was) actually has 3.121 years of service time (mostly on the ML DL) ... so had (if) the Padres added him and called him up for just over 50 days in 2022 they would effectively lose a year of control. As it is he will only have 3 control years. Maybe part of the reason not to rush him back from injury and to the ML now. Hopefully he becomes that elite late game force ... and 3 years is better than 2 years ... so maybe in the thinking process.

Not 100% sure I got that all right ... but think that is the essence of the rules.

James posted this in SDUT forum

You might look at Castillo's overall numbers and think, "why not bring him up?" Look at the analytics, however. Velocity vs. 2019 down. Spin rate on slider down. He overpowers guys in the minors, but that's not going to fly in MLB. Honestly, the next LRP to follow is Tom Cosgrove. Between SA and FW: 7-1 3.21 1.01WHIP 33.2IP 14BB 53Ks

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 3:53 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 3:28 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2022, 2:59 pm

Might not be directly linked to the immediate concerns about this deadline but might have some implications if looking ahead (or trying to deal Lamet) ... service time remaining:

Lamet has been labeled as having one more year of control (2023) BUT looking at Roster Resource he entered the year with 4.130 years and only has ... so far ... added about 30-35 more days ... not enough to cross the 5 year mark. If I understand the calculation correctly, if he would need about 42 days to earn that 5th year ... so he is close. So, if he is not recalled for the rest of the year ... Padres (or another buyer) would get 2 years control? He is 30 and in AAA ... so not sure that is a big selling point given his $4.5MM contract but can always be DFA.

Castillo who is not on the 40 man (but was) actually has 3.121 years of service time (mostly on the ML DL) ... so had (if) the Padres added him and called him up for just over 50 days in 2022 they would effectively lose a year of control. As it is he will only have 3 control years. Maybe part of the reason not to rush him back from injury and to the ML now. Hopefully he becomes that elite late game force ... and 3 years is better than 2 years ... so maybe in the thinking process.

Not 100% sure I got that all right ... but think that is the essence of the rules.

James posted this in SDUT forum

You might look at Castillo's overall numbers and think, "why not bring him up?" Look at the analytics, however. Velocity vs. 2019 down. Spin rate on slider down. He overpowers guys in the minors, but that's not going to fly in MLB. Honestly, the next LRP to follow is Tom Cosgrove. Between SA and FW: 7-1 3.21 1.01WHIP 33.2IP 14BB 53Ks

Just because his velocity and spin rates are down does not automatically mean he would not succeed in the ML ... a question of how much down from what starting point, how that compares to successful ML LHRP, and is he offsetting that with better command.