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Trades June/July/Deadline

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Problem with moving Myers is he is still injured and no real sense when he returns and if his knee will still be an issue ... along with the $7MM still owed. Really can't see a contender being a buyer before the deadline.

However, if the Padres want the Myers gamble (and knowing he is a FA to be) ... the Snell / Voit to BOST actually does sound good for both teams ... and Padres would benefit most from the CBT relief so ask for no real return so the entirety of their contracts get moved.

BOST is about $8MM over the CBT threshold ... so doubt they take two large contracts and pay even more in penalties however not close to the second threshold and the penalty money is not that severe ... so taking Snell is possible (probably their greater need). Maybe can squeeze in Voit.

Subbing in Hosmer would be trickier given his salary ... although a lot is coming off Boston's books after the season they will need to back fill a lot to get under the 2023 CBT (less going to the multi consecutive year penalty box). Guessing they CBT wise are concerned about 2023 more than 2022.

(side question on CBT calculations: If a player is traded mid-contract and that contract is not a even annual payment stream ... what does the buying team get hit with for CBT? Issue 1 ... if a FA to be with a $9MM contract does the buying team only get hit with 1/3rd for the part they actually pay (logical)? however IF a player such as Hosmer who carries an $18MM AAV with the Padres only carry the remaining money (1/3 2022 plus 3 year / $39MM) about $46MM divided by 3.3 years to establish the AAV for CBT ... or dropping to $13.9MM which would be a benefit to the buyer. I guess Snell would be the opposite effect with his AAV going higher. Makes a difference to CBT sensitive teams)

If they can't move Hosmer or Myers (and worried about Myers in the OF with his knee) ... opt to move Voit. Besides BOST might there be an option with TB who just lost a 1B/DH bat due to injury ... cost them about $2MM and they know they can non-tender him after the season. Opens some CBT space and if they aggressively market Lamet they might clear enough for a decent rental pick-up.

Padres (assuming no adds) still can go with Hosmer / Myers 1b/DH with Cronenworth sliding to 1B as need. Tatis' return will allow for Kim in reserve for the INF.

I do think Snell's contract can be moved if not looking for a return other than CBT relief.

What may make that move easier from the Padres' standpoint is locking down one of the FA to be pitchers for the future since without Snell only left with Darvish and Gore in 2023 then betting on the unproven or betting can sign multiple FA at a reasonable price. Snell's $10MM CBT AAV will not go far to garner a quality SP.

Clearly re-signing Musgrove is the prime objective ... and maybe have some faith Morejon to hit a starting role in 2023 but still need more if Snell out.

Between Manaea and Clevinger .. who would get the bigger contract and who would you re-sign (before they hit FA?. Both should be lesser cost than the prime FA pitchers on the market ... and CBT space is limited if they want to also add hitter to replace Myers - Profar - Mazara.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 10:11 am

If they can't move Hosmer or Myers (and worried about Myers in the OF with his knee) ... opt to move Voit. Besides BOST might there be an option with TB who just lost a 1B/DH bat due to injury ... cost them about $2MM and they know they can non-tender him after the season. Opens some CBT space and if they aggressively market Lamet they might clear enough for a decent rental pick-up.

Padres (assuming no adds) still can go with Hosmer / Myers 1b/DH with Cronenworth sliding to 1B as need. Tatis' return will allow for Kim in reserve for the INF.

Forgot about trying to move Lamets contract. IF CHC were really interested, I would move Lamet for a bag of balls at this time for the CBT space.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 10:25 am

I do think Snell's contract can be moved if not looking for a return other than CBT relief.

What may make that move easier from the Padres' standpoint is locking down one of the FA to be pitchers for the future since without Snell only left with Darvish and Gore in 2023 then betting on the unproven or betting can sign multiple FA at a reasonable price. Snell's $10MM CBT AAV will not go far to garner a quality SP.

Clearly re-signing Musgrove is the prime objective ... and maybe have some faith Morejon to hit a starting role in 2023 but still need more if Snell out.

Between Manaea and Clevinger .. who would get the bigger contract and who would you re-sign (before they hit FA?. Both should be lesser cost than the prime FA pitchers on the market ... and CBT space is limited if they want to also add hitter to replace Myers - Profar - Mazara.

Well its sounds as if Musgrove could be signed to an extension this week. So that is promising. His CBT number for the extension will clear things up for SD, and what they can do moving forward.

I would go with Clevinger over Manaea. Just not been that impressed with Manaea. Too many up and down starts for me. Clevinger seems the safer bet.

Plus, we have LHSP options in Morejon and Weathers, who I still think will bounce back. Weathers maybe better served by going to SA, and getting some confidence back, versus trying to do that in hitters heaven EP. And Gore will be fine once he gets stretched out and has more innings under his belt.

Musgrove, Gore, Darvish, Morejon, Clevinger rotation would work well for 2023.

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MrPadre19

3 trades I think AJP needs to push for now (they compliment each)

Trade 1) Hos + Grish + Snell +$20 mil to Bosox

# 11 P Jay Groome (40man) + # 22 C Nathan Hickey to San Diego

Trade 2) Josh Bell to SD

Myers +# 5 Rosario and # 11 Lizarraga to Washinton

Trade 3) Zach Davies (AZ) to SDP

P    Lawson to AZ

THEN can work on Soto.. OR rentals like Contreras etc..maybe go after Castillo instead and a Naquin type cheap OF??

Net -1 spot on the 40.. And plenty of $$ under lux tax to add

Post AS lineup (before Tatis and desdline)

1. Kim (vs lhp) SS/ Profar (vs rhp)

2. Crone zone 2B

3. Manny 3B

4. Bell 1B

5. Alfaro C

6. Mazara RF

7. Voit DH

8. Profar (vslhp leads off vs rhp)LF /CJ SS (vs rhp)

9. Ruiz CF

Would likely bring up Azocar to back up CF.. But Kowhley would be interesting add as he can play there a bit and backup all OF/1B and we would have 1 spot open (40)..

Bench / Nola/(Kim or CJ)/Batten and ?( Azocar or Kowhley)

This alone gives us a 💯 better 1-9..

AJP can take a 3 step approach leading to the deadline

1 (All in on Soto)

2 (Strengthen C/OF/Bench/SP) with rental studs (Contreras/Beni/Mancini types.. or Castillo type SP-controlled)

3. Upgrade the bench with guys like Drury/Naquin/Gamel..remember Tatis back = OF and IF upgrades by itself)

If #1 happens move to #3... if only 1 2 or 3 happens ok too..

I dont think that moving Hosmer is a smart move, I think he is the glue for the clubhouse. And moving him would do more damage than the new bat brought in.

So, substitute Voit for Hosmer and dont include the $20M and dont worry about the quality of the prospects coming back.

I am not sure that WAS would take Myers, for reasons Fenn mentioned, the lingering injury. Maybe if he can play 1B, WAS might have some interest.

I think the AZ trade is a very good idea, although I would expand it to include David Peralta. Davies pitched really well here in SD, and AZ should be willing to take Lawson in return since he is cheap and under control long enough for AZ's rebuild.

Sort of a if this then that on Davies given the 13 man pitching logjam coming on the active roster. Probably need to add Davies concurrently with trading Snell for 26 man issues.

Plus Lawson is non-roster while Davies would be on the 40 man ... so it would (should) be a 40 player moved out ... and will need to make those moves to deal with the internal players coming off the 60 day IL.

Add that Davies will be a FA ... and not hearing that other teams are in on him ... probably would take a lot less than the resurgent Lawson ... how about our favorite "CASH CONSIDERATIONS" or someone fringe such as Scott.

Bell is a FA to be ... All-Star level at about $10MM ... Myers is a FA to be ... injured at about $20MM ... why would that deal make any sense to WASH getting a lesser player for more money? Padres would have to really really offer some prime prospects to interest WASH.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2022, 11:00 am

Bell is a FA to be ... All-Star level at about $10MM ... Myers is a FA to be ... injured at about $20MM ... why would that deal make any sense to WASH getting a lesser player for more money? Padres would have to really really offer some prime prospects to interest WASH.

I gave them a good prospect mix..amts owed are more like $9mil (including opt out) vs $5 mil..so only $4 mil.. but yeah if it comes to Myers breaking the deal ..$$ saved in Bosox deal is more than enough to cover Bell and another move or 2

IF we do go get Soto (Myers inj or not would have to go to WASH at that point to offset the $17mil (roughly $6.5 remaining) coming to us...

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