Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 8:59 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 8:42 pm

We need to keep Gore.Too much SP uncertainty after this year.I just don’t see any scenario where we end up with Soto.We just can’t afford him unless we let Musgrove,Clevinger and Manaea all go.

Package would have to be something like Abrams/Hassell/Merrill/Acosta/Lawson/Knehr

Even then we go over the tax threshold next year or we end up with at least two bottom of the barrel SP free agents in the rotation.We just won’t have the prospects left to deal to move Hoz or Myers to save $ to sign even Clevinger.

Darvish/Gore/Snell/Cheap FA/Cheap FA.

Myers is owed roughly $8 million by the deadline (including his option decline)..Soto is owed roughly $6.5 mil ..so Myers goes in the package.. done deal

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 9:11 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 8:42 pm

We need to keep Gore.Too much SP uncertainty after this year.I just don’t see any scenario where we end up with Soto.We just can’t afford him unless we let Musgrove,Clevinger and Manaea all go.

Package would have to be something like Abrams/Hassell/Merrill/Acosta/Lawson/Knehr

Even then we go over the tax threshold next year or we end up with at least two bottom of the barrel SP free agents in the rotation.We just won’t have the prospects left to deal to move Hoz or Myers to save $ to sign even Clevinger.

Darvish/Gore/Snell/Cheap FA/Cheap FA.

We will be like $80 mil from threshold in the offseason..(after opt outsbetc)

Lamet arb 3 is non tender..+$5mil

Voit non tender +$5 Mil

So $90 mil left

Resign Musgrove $23.5

Soto arb ($17 now..jumps to $23 or so

Still have $45;mil to add  an OF/SP/SP

Mazara $5ish 2/10 + 1/8 type option

Manea 4/56

Nick Mart 4/32

$13 mil left... Plus I think AJP deals Snell/

Yu drops off in 2024

Then would be decision time on Soto 12/440 + 3/60 options 15/500.. or let him walk

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 9:36 pm

Abrams, Gore, Hassell, Campusano and Grisham. Is that a decent start for a Soto trade on the Padres end

Someone posted this in Mlbtraderumors Chat ?s

Sign me up.. Done

The host also agreed that would be in the ballpark

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 10:06 pm

Apperantely there is some smoke in Baltimore on a potential Snell for Santander ..or Snell for Hays type deal.. hmmm..would sure free up $$ for another acquisition while addressing a need..

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2022, 3:14 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 10:06 pm

Apperantely there is some smoke in Baltimore on a potential Snell for Santander ..or Snell for Hays type deal.. hmmm..would sure free up $$ for another acquisition while addressing a need..

Given BALT’s history of not spending … taking and under performing Snell by itself is a long shot (key being the $16MM in 2023). Taking Snell and giving up a key piece of their success in 2022 and controlled for the future is (should be) off the board.

So doubt it unless the Padres include some enticing prospects into the mix.

I have Snell quickly falling into the Hosmer model … to move his salary expect nothing in return and probably have to either eat some money or add a prospect or two and still expect nothing in return.

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2022, 3:42 am

Did a quick run at the potential 2023 CBT level considering the FA, non-tenders of Voit and Lamet, opt out of Martinez and Profar (but not Hosmer or Suarez), arbitration increases (primarily Cronenworth), and the increase in the threshold.

Came up with about $68MM under but no Musgrove, Manaea, Clevinger, Rogers, Myers, Profar, Mazara … plus others. Basically left with an OF of Ruiz and Grisham, a SP of Snell, Darvish, and Gore … then roll the dice on the unproven in the system.

If Musgrove is a priority he will eat about $23-25MM leaving maybe $45MM to still address the OF, another SP at a minimum, and a bat to cover the DH role post-Voit. Plus that does little to work on the C. That is going to be tough to get all the needed adds  … good ML adds … within that dollar amount and still be contenders unless some (all) of the near term quality prospects deliver while at league minimum. So a lot rides on Ruiz, Abrams, Gore, Morejon, and Campusano in 2023. If they succeed (or are projected to succeed by the Padres) … more can be spent on key adds. Sort of why it is hard to deal any of them for a pricy player.

I would guess that $45MM might get Profar - Mazara - Manaea - Clevinger (or Martinez) with $5MM left to fund the rest of the roster with league minimum types and keep some wiggle room. If not them … similar talent levels. The bigger FA talent  like Bell and Contreras probably pull $18MM and a Rodon will go over $20MM. Can fit one in (Maybe two) but the rest of the 26 man will have some major holes.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 17, 2022, 3:59 am

At some point the Preller has to see that no team wants Hosmer for anywhere near his contract (maybe not at all give his production deterioration). He is a “sunk cost” and they may just have to bite the bullet to clear him from the roster to get a more productive player in. Options:

1. Find a team that will just take him because of his reputation and team need and pay down his contract as much as needed to get them to make the deal. PTNL type return. Does not help the CBT much but a little does help and Hosmer is off the team.

2. Modify option #1 buy adding some decent prospects to the deal and reduce the buy down opening up more CBT space at the cost of prospects .. buyer is essentially buying the prospects. Sort of depends on the prospects to see if that is a good route.

3. This one is tricky but buyout Hosmer at something less than his remaining contact. Boras as his agent has to have an idea what Hosmer could get on the open market and MIGHT opt for money up front for the shot at FA. More of a future CBT value plus the end of the Hosmer era.

4. The ultimate give up … just DFA him … he would clear waivers and the Padres would be on the hook for his contract no matter where he signs but he will be gone.

5. Light candles and pray for Hosmer taking the opt out at the end of the season.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 17, 2022, 4:56 am

Here is a thought... find a team with a bad deal ..aka Bumgarner AZ (owed $37 next 2 yrs)...trade Hosmer ($39 but over 3) to them (walker/peralta/etc being shopped so he replaces 1B/DH)..add a prospect and $15 mil cash to the deal

From Padres perspective .. we have an exodus of SP this offseason .having Bum in SD at least gives us a solid P at the back end (hell take away the SDP games from Bum and he is closer to 3 than 4 ERA.....for some reason our little engine that could offense loves hitting vs him) like HOS he is a bad contract but position wise a better fit for us.. Crone/CJ/Tatis/Manny 1B to 3B would be > than with HOS at 1B

Dbacks save money per year .. at only $8 per when you factor SDPs +$15mil to sweeten the pot..pit... Bum also offers insurance in 22 if we deal Snell ..Pads are 1-9 in his starts ..I am sure Bum can match that and improve on it after the AS break...

We also have a couple 1B I like to give a shot in ST 2023 in Martin and Kowhley (can play CF too)...

I looked at John Gray (Rangers) but he would require a lot better spec attached to in such a move

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 17, 2022, 4:59 am

By the way Spotrac has us at $149 for 23..and only $80 something for 24