Quote from fenn68 on June 23, 2022, 3:32 pm

Given how the Padres are playing … and the positive moves Preller has made for 2022 … should be zero concern about his status. Siedler likes and supports him and that is all that matters.

———-

Heard a Siedler interview today … obviously nothing earthshaking or specific but he did say that at the quarterly organization meetings recently they discussed trade possibilities.

”Discussed” does not mean anything is currently in motion on a deal … but does suggest that Preller is mulling moves. Not sure if just keeping Siedler in the loop (he is the owner after all) or maybe seeing Siedler’s reaction to the ideas (both who targeting and who may be on the block).

So, maybe we should not totally right off a significant trade deadline move.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 23, 2022, 3:46 pm

Quote from fenn68 on June 23, 2022, 3:32 pm

Given how the Padres are playing … and the positive moves Preller has made for 2022 … should be zero concern about his status. Siedler likes and supports him and that is all that matters.

———-

Heard a Siedler interview today … obviously nothing earthshaking or specific but he did say that at the quarterly organization meetings recently they discussed trade possibilities.

”Discussed” does not mean anything is currently in motion on a deal … but does suggest that Preller is mulling moves. Not sure if just keeping Siedler in the loop (he is the owner after all) or maybe seeing Siedler’s reaction to the ideas (both who targeting and who may be on the block).

So, maybe we should not totally right off a significant trade deadline move.

For me if we do this at the Trade Deadline we do what is needed to energize the team and put us on the level of the NYY...

1- Extend Musgrove ..showing the rest of the team we are all in it to win and win and win

2- Get a better bench piece than Alcantara who can also play more ... Perfect fit Brandon Drury

3- Trade for Reynolds ..even if it costs us CJ and Campusano +... CF is our weakest offensive category... Reynolds van play CF/RF and LF and would start at CF where he is GG but would also spell Profar 1x a week..Jurickson has played in all but 1 game this year.. and RF when Grish gets a start or 2 a week...

Lets Go Padres!

Quote from Randy Manese on June 23, 2022, 4:03 pm

Preller's best move was to hire Melvin and crew.  I think you see it everyday in the way the team goes about its business.  Calm, confident, never panicky.  Trust in the next guy up and pull for each other.

Not sure I'd trade CJ.  Sure, he's off to a slow start in the majors, but I see a lot of Mookie Betts similarities in his game when he puts it all together.  Not opposed to trading Hassell or Campusano, but Abrams seems to me a special kind of player once he starts slowing the game down and being more selective on what pitches to hit (because he is so good at making contact, he has not been patient enough).  Pirates have a great prospect in Henry Davis, who currently is a catcher, but could be moved to another position; drafted more for his bat than his catching prowess.  Probably need to throw in a pitching prospect to make this deal - maybe Weathers.

Quote from fenn68 on June 23, 2022, 4:31 pm

Tatis will bump Alcantara and slide Kim to the bench as the #1 INF back-up who can cover 3B/SS/2B.

Don’t have an issue with dealing Campusano (don’t really have any faith in him developing into a catcher that fits Melvin’s style … more Mejia type) but Abrams is in my no trade category with way too much upside either in the INF or OF as soon as 2023 (if not 2022 with injuries … see Tatis).

Reynolds (27) name has been tossed around … I like Reynolds but like has its limits in what I would pay. At the same time Preller may be asking on Reynolds … he may also asking BALT on either Mullins (27) a legit CF and/or Hays (26) who has been in LF/RF but could go to CF in not for Mullins. Think all three are low salary / longer control … so will cost in prospects. Consider:

Reynolds: 259/335/462 on the rise with a hot June but playing a lot against NL Central (not good) and in hitter’s parks … had excellent 2021 and 2019.

Mullins: 245/303/377 on the rise also with a hot June and the legit defensive CF of the bunch coming off an excellent 2021 (but was that a mirage)

Hays: 287/347/482 but a bit of a gamble to CF.

So, it may boil down to whether BALT and PITT drops their demands first and low enough with Preller being potentially comfortable with any of the three. Probably some other options that will be on the market and Preller will not fixate on only one … get the best for the price when he is ready to move and not wait someone like PITT to come down to a reasonable demand.

Now Campusano might work with PITT but not with BALT given they have one of the best catching prospects in the game. This is where they may have to break out Hassell as a chip if Preller really likes Hayes (maybe Mullins but less sold on him).

Not a ton of headline prospects Preller can use (If I hold out Abrams) … Campusano and Hassell are top 100 types … Weathers was … then really drop down to unproven Woods and Merrill who are so far away that may not get the value for them. Probably should also include Morejon (but a bit cautious there given the coming FA for the Padres).

Can Preller build a Reynolds deal around Campusano, Weathers, and a couple of mid-range guys? Can Preller build a Hays deal around Hassell, Weathers, and a couple of mid-range guys? Wonder if Ruiz’s emergence makes him a sold trade chip? PS if they land a legit CF for the next 3 years … throw Grisham in the deal.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 23, 2022, 6:44 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on June 23, 2022, 4:03 pm

Preller's best move was to hire Melvin and crew.  I think you see it everyday in the way the team goes about its business.  Calm, confident, never panicky.  Trust in the next guy up and pull for each other.

Not sure I'd trade CJ.  Sure, he's off to a slow start in the majors, but I see a lot of Mookie Betts similarities in his game when he puts it all together.  Not opposed to trading Hassell or Campusano, but Abrams seems to me a special kind of player once he starts slowing the game down and being more selective on what pitches to hit (because he is so good at making contact, he has not been patient enough).  Pirates have a great prospect in Henry Davis, who currently is a catcher, but could be moved to another position; drafted more for his bat than his catching prowess.  Probably need to throw in a pitching prospect to make this deal - maybe Weathers.

Put me in the Hassell > Abrams Camp.

I’d prefer to not trade either but I just have this feeling Hassell will hit more at the ML level.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2022, 5:39 am

There has to be a spirited debate in the Padres’ front office concerning trading any of the Top prospects (Abrams, Hassell, Campusano, and maybe Ruiz).

The issue is short term thinking (2022) and then quickly dropping to a non-playoff teams for the next 3-5 years OR risk the current roster can win in 2022 and preserve a competitive team going forward.

Two forces … first Padres could lose 10 off the current roster via FA or opt outs after 2022 and then another 6 FA after 2023 plus Machado could opt out after 2023 at age 31 with a $150MM/5 years remaining (the way he is playing and if he sees the Padres fading … good chance in this market). Second, Padres have very little replacement talent in full season ball beyond Abrams, Hassell, Ruiz, and Campusano … then maybe 3 years out Merrill and Woods.

Replacing 16-17 players over the next two years with equivalent talent via FA (re-signing) is not really probable and will cost way more than the current roster. So, need internal prospects to balance the payroll.

As we have learned that trade deadline deals for “hot” players do not always payoff … see Ludwick … see Frazier. Could miss the playoffs in 2022 (not that big a lead in the playoff race for the Padres with half a season to go) and then fall into oblivion going forward. Not an easy call.

Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2022, 6:19 am

Saw a note yesterday that Preller was “interested” in SP Luis Castillo from the Reds.

Seems odd given the need for offense and an overstock of SP but I guess possible. Strengthened the rotation (maybe cover the weakness in Snell, Clevinger, Gore … at least potentially) and controlled through next season which has value if not re-signing all the potential FA SP.

Maybe opens up dealing one of the current SP (offset to the payroll increase from Castillo).

Maybe just mis-direction to jack up his cost to some other team or lower the demands from other teams trying to deal with the Padres.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 24, 2022, 9:42 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 24, 2022, 6:19 am

Saw a note yesterday that Preller was “interested” in SP Luis Castillo from the Reds.

Seems odd given the need for offense and an overstock of SP but I guess possible. Strengthened the rotation (maybe cover the weakness in Snell, Clevinger, Gore … at least potentially) and controlled through next season which has value if not re-signing all the potential FA SP.

Maybe opens up dealing one of the current SP (offset to the payroll increase from Castillo).

Maybe just mis-direction to jack up his cost to some other team or lower the demands from other teams trying to deal with the Padres.

He has always loved Castillo... and yes if we can get him and keep him away from LAD/SF and NYY do it... got to keep an eye out for 2023....

 

Way I look at it

As long as we have

SPMusgrove/Yu/Gore and add a Castillo

IF Hos/Crone/Tatis/Manny/Kim All controlled

OF/DH Grish/Voit

BP 101 arms 😆 including 3 in AA that maybe >than those in AAA

We don't need to +/- much

On prospects

Campusano- Trade 100% for the right Controlable OF/SP like Castillo

CJ- 60/40 (on the shall we trade)he is an OF/2B.. by the time he is ready to produce at the level we need him to in a contender Merrill will be ready and Merrill (like Crone) is plug and play from the moment he comes up he is that type of guy... Dont see CJ playing SS with Tatis and Kim here..his value is at SS ..2B or OF diminishes his value some... so I am ok trading him for a controllable All Star (AS potential) OF like Reynolds or Hays (Orioles)..

OF Ruiz/Hassell/Mears/Wood...(2,ND tier behind includes the other Ruiz/Ornelasand Howell + others way down the line like Zabala).. I love love love Ruiz/Hassell and Wood... I know Mears has HUGE power But out of those 4 he would be the one I would trade...to me Wood represents a Judge type talent capable of CF which makes him my untouchable...

So let's say we add Hays (Orioles) and Castillo (+Drury)*Reds* so 3 spots in the 40 and 26 incoming..What and how I would accomplish that?

Out of the 40 (in trades be it 3 ways or independent of the above)

TRADE- Snell (26/1) + Lamet (40/2) + Myers (40/3) + Stamen (26/4)..

NET GAINS from the above 3 to 5 # 10-#25 type specs lotto tickets mostly teen types in the A ball or lower range to backfill..perhaps 1 or 2 AA types)..for Myers we may have to include his entire $9 mil or so owed for the final 2 months)

Prospects I would move to acquire that level of control and talent say Castillo and Hays (with Drury who by himself doesn't cost much)

Wethers + CJ + Campy + Mears + Ferguson + Ornelas + Knerr...I think that's close if not a bit of an overpay

We still have ready for 23 or in an emergency from AAA

Sullivan C AAA 40

Rooker OF AAA 40

Contreras INF AAA 40 #6

Ruiz OF AAA #29 (#7 Madfriars I believe)

Batten Utility AAA #26

Martin 1B/DH AAA Mexican League MVP like signee

Howell 3B/SS/CF #13 AA

Reiss Knher P AAA

Castillo P AAA

Baez P AAA

Pomz P 60 il

Johnson P 60 IL

Adams P 60 IL

Suarez P IL

Not sure who else I am missing but I know 3 more arms BP are at AA as well

A yr out after that ..Dunn A+/Wood A(maybe 2yrs)/Merrill A/Dunn A+ /Hassell III A+ and others...

So assuming we lose all our OF except Grish/Hays in offseason..before FA..

Hays and Grish are a great start..Ruiz and Hassell could battle for one or 2 OF spots and 4th/5th OF roles... a Gallo or Profar back probably won't cost more than 3/30..4/40 ($10per) or an aging guy like Peralta 1/8 Pham like deal in FA

IF pretty much set

SP would have controlled Yu/Castillo/Gore.. Musgrove a must resign and 5th/6th could be FA adds with plenty of $$ off the books.. Manea/Martinez/Clev could all be back or none be back there would still be Eflin and Co. In FA to fill 5th and 6th spots

BP and IF are fine and deep

Closer could resign Rogers..or use Pomz/Castillo/Suarez/even Wilson in that role..

As for our system ..with the (proposed) exodus of 7 of our top 25 (4 of top 10) in the trades above... not only do we have the specs to replace them in the peeking order ie CJ ..replacement Merrill and Rosario.. BUT also a more forgiven timeline as of now Abrams would have to play out of position OF and probably not develop enough in 23 to impact the Offense much..more like 2024 or 25.. by which time a more mature body type Merrill could be doing the same or greater ... and system depth won't be an issue with incoming Draft ..Intl signings and the above spec acquisitions for the vet trades...

Long winded but sort of my current vision /sacrifice/risk willing to take to give us a > shot at WS in 2022 and for the next 2-3 yrs if not longer

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 24, 2022, 9:56 am

Just no rentals please...unless is for a #20ish older spec like Batten say in a deal for Mancini