Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2022, 8:27 am

Assuming Adams never comes off the 60 day IL and Stammen goes on the 60 day IL to cover Tatis' return for the 60 day IL ... Padres will still have 4 to cover at some point (Beaty, Pomeranz, Suarez, and Johnson). Adding to the complexity (and trade deadline options) is that it is beginning to look as though except for Beaty all will return after the trade deadline. Will set up some Aug DFA if the Padres don't move a 40 man player at the deadline in a deal and leave a roster slot open. Then there is Castillo (non-roster) who is pushing to be added.

So potentially 5 need to be removed from the 40 man while keeping the key 26 man players (and call-ups) without dropping a good prospect ... not easy. Preller has to make some net delete moves by pushing to include some extra roster players and not accept extra roster player in return.

---

Techical question: Beaty went on rehab on July 4th and with those being 20 DAYS would be off on July 24th ... that would cause a bit of a premature problem preceding the deadline moves. However, Beaty has not been in a game since July 10th ... clearly will not play during the 4 day All-Star break ... so the rehab is not doing much rehab. I have not heard if Beaty is re-injured but if he is (and the commissioner approves) he can restart the rehab timetable at 20 days. Don't think the break creates an extension but?

So, is any of that getting Beaty a rehab extension?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 9:00 am

How do we use Efrain Contreras spot...he came out of the game holding his elbow the other day.. Can he be cut?

Scott probably DFA candidate

You bet Rosario (or CJ in a bigger trade) could be a key piece

If we indeed get Contreras ..I see Sullivan/Campy (maybe too much maybe just what gets him) or Nola going to Cubs..also can see Sullivan moved for a piece outside a 40 man roster (some kid named Fernando 17 and hitting .333 in the DSL lol not on any top 30 list)

Could move on from Hill/Scott/Lamet from BP

A Snell + Voit + Hill+ Lamet ...individually or together for non 40 specs possible as well...

Could see AJP sell a little and Buy a little with a Gross +2-+4 players coming in to the 40... - 6 to -8 current 40 moving on... a lot of ?? As to the Health of some of these arms and how soon they will be back..if before the deadline or within a week of it as far as ready to go.. then the spots could be created at the deadline.. if after ... oh boy!

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 9:13 am

Ruiz/Mazara make Beaty DFA able.

Surely they don’t keep him once he has to be activated?

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 9:56 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 9:13 am

Ruiz/Mazara make Beaty DFA able.

Surely they don’t keep him once he has to be activated?

 

He would have value for a team like NYY..maybe a box of balls instead of nothing..or a waiver /DFA type trade

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 10:07 am

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/nationals-to-entertain-trade-offers-for-juan-soto-after-he-rejects-440mm-offer.html

OMFG!

I can't believe this is happening.. 2 1/2 yrs of Control... Soto/Tatis/Machado holy immaculate conception

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 10:28 am

Don’t get too excited…..the chance is extremely slim.

Every contending team wants him too and I doubt AJ will give up our top 5 prospects even for Soto when it will alsoput us over the Cap.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 10:37 am

I think if Padrss want Soto they get Soto..

Myers (matches the $$ factor to stay under the CBT tax)

 

The package would be CJ + Hassell + Campusano + Rosario + Victor Acosta + Wethers + Kerr + Myers

 

Only OF control beyond 22 are Ruiz and Grishman so they will be shopping for OF anyway.. Ruiz CF/Soto in LF and Grishman 4th is a good start

💯.. I still believe Wethers will be real good so if Gore tips the scale vs Wethers so be it... I think Rosario readiness for 23..as well as CJ and Wethers Knerr and Campusano.. brings a level of enthusiasm to the Nats who are losing like 16/26 after the season..not good situation there.. having a super young team cheap and fun to watch grow ...would be the right approach for them...

 

I wouldn't get too cute with Hosmer included in the offer as the 3/39 could turn them (Nats off) but maybe if AJP says ok ill replace Wethers with Gore IF u add BELL and take on Hosmer.. then LFGOSD!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 16, 2022, 11:17 am

Can you imagine sweeping the Dbacks waking up on Monday morning listening to Ben and Woods and around 9am ..hearing Ben say OMFG! And announcing the Padres have just acquired 1B Josh Bell AND OF Juan Soto from the Nats... SD would go nutz..every remaining home game would sell out as would the 2023 season

Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2022, 11:40 am

Well this is blockbuster news that will reverberate around the MLB nation. Not a lot of teams can (or want) realistically win a bid for Soto.

First they need A LOT of talent to deal and the money to pay him. Since he rejected a 15 year / $440 MM deal we are talking A LOT of money. That combo takes most of the potential bidders out of the game early. Keep in mind with 2.5 years control, WASH does not have to deal NOW and can take their shot in the winter when potentially other team rosters / payrolls are “cleaner”. Also, guessing with some of the bidders, WASH does not have to take any money back unless the returning talent is even sweeter.

Don’t know if the rules allow but can the potential buyer negotiate an extension before making the deal … big difference in the prospects sent to WASH if the buyer knows the have Soto locked. Can’t really go the PTNL route depending on long term signing since PTNL has to be done with 6 months.

If we guess that his final to arbitration years is in the $55MM range total … and 13 FA years are in play … what is the targeted AAV? Guessing $35MM at the low end and since it is Boras the bidding would likely start at $40MM. Just dining the math and are we looking near a $550MM commitment if the deal was done today? That might be hard to pull off right now in a short negotiation window.

Then we don’t know the Boras strategy (except the best deal) … and he likes to get that through competitive  bidding in FA. Also, do they want a major market and a winning organization for additional marketing opportunities? Boras will get money either way.

I see NYY (maybe post Judge) … NYM (Cohen spends and wants to be #2 in NY) … LAD (because) … maybe TOR (money and eager with a young talented team) but not sure beyond that if money / talent to deal / winning organization are all in the equation.

Pretty sure the idea appeals to Preller / Siedler but given the contract long term to Machado and Tatis and the need to sign Musgrove … adding in Soto is a lot of payroll in four players while having traded the low cost upside prospects who would help fund a full roster … especially if the extension is before the deal requiring more talent.

WASH is far from contending in a Division with NYM, ATL, MIA, and PHIL … so probably would focus on the top prospects in volume so they can compete in a few years when more poor contracts come off the books and he can shoot for new FA.

Abrams - Hassell - Wood with Myers could be a base IF the Padres knew they had him long term …maybe more.

—————-

Should be a fun watch.