Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2022, 4:56 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 14, 2022, 3:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2022, 3:27 pm

Couldn’t the Padres just sign Contreras next year (let’s say $18MM) and still stay under the CBT threshold given the pending FA departing?

Locking up $18MM for Contreras and $10MM for McCann in CBT space seems overpay for the catcher slot when could go with Campusano over McCann and redeploy that $10MM to the pitching / OF. Then do what they can to get some trade value out of Alfaro and Nola.

Still think they can get Contreras in 2022 as a rental for a lot less than Campusano.

 

I think you need to take another look at what I proposed. McCann's 10m cap number is more than offset by Hosmer's 18m. I think they can get Contreras for a lot less than Campusano too which is why I have the Mets involved to also get out of some of Hosmer's contract by swapping it with McCann's.

I see that for 2022 … but 2023-2024 Hosmer would be $18MM AAV and McCann plus Contreras (if signed) would be about $28MM, so a drag on the CBT going forward and needing an $ to replace Hosmer along with replacements for FA OF/SP.

I am OK with moving Hosmer … just not with adding $10MM AAV for a back-up catcher. Now IF you could make that deal and flip McCann to the Cubs (with prospects) for Contreras that might appeal. Cubs are not short on money and they get a veteran catcher for two years while their top catching prospect matures. So, two months of Contreras for McCann and prospects could work for both the Cubs and the Padres.

Still not sure on the METS in this though.

———-

If moving AAV, still would not rule out BOST … who has a worse 1B issue than the METS and is in a tighter race for the playoffs … plus Martinez and some others go FA after the season so he may have some long term value plus the green monster does fit his swing. Again don’t need anything back if they take the contract … Myers could take 1B … Cronenworth could take 1B with Kim/Abrams taking over 2B.

Still could deal for Contreras using Nola and prospects since would have the CBT space.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 14, 2022, 5:11 pm

3.12

3.10

2.76

2.05

 

Why are my these #s significant? That's Blake Snells ERA at Petco...Fenway and Jays Stadium for his career... 2 potential landing spots for him... the last one is at Dodger Stadium.. the Pros to keeping him.. he could be a catalyst in a post season series vs Dodgers or a WS vs Red Sox or Jays... or could be a Petco starter against anyone in the postseason... The Pros for trading him.. $$$ relief for CBT..could net us a couple good specs and allow us to add more $$ to both our 22 team and clear $$ for adds in 2023....

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 14, 2022, 7:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2022, 4:56 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 14, 2022, 3:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2022, 3:27 pm

Couldn’t the Padres just sign Contreras next year (let’s say $18MM) and still stay under the CBT threshold given the pending FA departing?

Locking up $18MM for Contreras and $10MM for McCann in CBT space seems overpay for the catcher slot when could go with Campusano over McCann and redeploy that $10MM to the pitching / OF. Then do what they can to get some trade value out of Alfaro and Nola.

Still think they can get Contreras in 2022 as a rental for a lot less than Campusano.

 

I think you need to take another look at what I proposed. McCann's 10m cap number is more than offset by Hosmer's 18m. I think they can get Contreras for a lot less than Campusano too which is why I have the Mets involved to also get out of some of Hosmer's contract by swapping it with McCann's.

I see that for 2022 … but 2023-2024 Hosmer would be $18MM AAV and McCann plus Contreras (if signed) would be about $28MM, so a drag on the CBT going forward and needing an $ to replace Hosmer along with replacements for FA OF/SP.

I am OK with moving Hosmer … just not with adding $10MM AAV for a back-up catcher. Now IF you could make that deal and flip McCann to the Cubs (with prospects) for Contreras that might appeal. Cubs are not short on money and they get a veteran catcher for two years while their top catching prospect matures. So, two months of Contreras for McCann and prospects could work for both the Cubs and the Padres.

Still not sure on the METS in this though.

———-

If moving AAV, still would not rule out BOST … who has a worse 1B issue than the METS and is in a tighter race for the playoffs … plus Martinez and some others go FA after the season so he may have some long term value plus the green monster does fit his swing. Again don’t need anything back if they take the contract … Myers could take 1B … Cronenworth could take 1B with Kim/Abrams taking over 2B.

Still could deal for Contreras using Nola and prospects since would have the CBT space.

The deal I proposed would add about 1m in AAV this year subtract 8m plus whatever Nola gets in arbitration for 2 years after that, and a full 18m plus whatever Nola gets in year 3. It would also save somewhere around 20m in actual dollars. No matter how you spin it you can't characterize it as adding 10m to the AAV for McCann. The deal I proposed saves money. What we may or may not do in free agency has no effect on the calculus of the trade. If you really wanted to look at it the way you proposed it would be more akin to getting McCann and Contreras at a combined 20m AAV in 2023-24 and just Contreras at 10m in 2025.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 14, 2022, 7:56 pm

Except McCann sucks, we dont need another sub .200 hitter.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 14, 2022, 8:10 pm

Looking at the Red Sox ...Jesus... talk about OF problems..Grishman would be their 2nd best OF and is not even close Their starters OPS + is 91 68 and 54... Grish is 81... and if he played 1/2 his games at Fenway would be even >... with that in mind and thinking outside the box

 

Padres get:

Xander B (1 1/2 yrs of control) a great pure hitter with pop..But also a terrible fielding SS... making $11 mil and arb 3 looming..

 

Bosox get CJ Abrams >defense at SS and an Offensive proj similar to Xander down the road + Hosmer 1B (you think their OF is bad..1B is worse) + Grishman + Snell (their SP needs help).. so they have 5 glaring holes..Plug 4 of them with a SP (career 3.10 at Fenway) /1B Hosmer and his new best friend the Green Monster would do well in Boston..and even if he is just the SDP version ..still about 50 OPS+ better than what they have + Grishman also improves them greatly (lol) it's funny 😁 but true...Obviously CJ is not Xander or anywhere close offensively..but the Defensive upgrade is immediate and the offensive drop off can be made by improving in so many areas...

 

Xander plays 2B for us.. Crone slides to 1B..we upgrade 2 positions with one move... CJ's potential is sexy.. but we are in win now mode and Ruiz in CF (after Grish traded) is enough rookies for a playoff bound team

A post season team needs 3 OPS + players over 135... right now we have 1 Manny at 168... (Mazara is 2 at 148 but very small sample size and most of it vs RHP)..Boggarts would be 2..and Tatis 3

As far as Snell replacement ... a SP like Zach Davies ($1.4mil) could easily be acquired and to that end all we need is a SP that can do better than Snell has in the 1st half.. I believe the team is 1-9 in games he has started...in the 2nd half

 

1 Tatis SS/CF/RF/DH

2 . Boggerts 2B/3B/SS/DH

3. Manny 3B

4 Contreras DH/1B/C (our 2nd Move for a Bat)

5. Crone 1B/2B/SS

6. Mazara RF/LF/DH

7. Alfaro C/DH

8. Myers LF/RF/CF

9. Ruiz CF

Bench

Profar LF/INF--Kim SS (vs lhp)/2B/3B/ --Nola C/2B-- Naquin (Reds 3rd trade minimal spec capital) CF (protection for Ruiz struggles)LF/RF

We have depth everywhere..versatility in starting lineup and bench alike and didn't have to empty the farm to do so.   We also save about $28mil towards CBT in 23.. But Xander will take 2/3+ of that in arb 3

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 14, 2022, 9:42 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 14, 2022, 7:56 pm

Except McCann sucks, we dont need another sub .200 hitter.

I agree. We do need a .262/.377/.473 hitter though. Again this isn't about McCann. It's about adding Contreras without going into the luxury tax this year and getting out of a significant portion of Hosmer's remaining contract. McCann sucks, but Hosmer sucks too and he's getting paid more for longer.

Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2022, 3:01 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 14, 2022, 8:10 pm

Looking at the Red Sox ...Jesus... talk about OF problems..Grishman would be their 2nd best OF and is not even close Their starters OPS + is 91 68 and 54... Grish is 81... and if he played 1/2 his games at Fenway would be even >... with that in mind and thinking outside the box

 

Padres get:

Xander B (1 1/2 yrs of control) a great pure hitter with pop..But also a terrible fielding SS... making $11 mil and arb 3 looming..

 

Bosox get CJ Abrams >defense at SS and an Offensive proj similar to Xander down the road + Hosmer 1B (you think their OF is bad..1B is worse) + Grishman + Snell (their SP needs help).. so they have 5 glaring holes..Plug 4 of them with a SP (career 3.10 at Fenway) /1B Hosmer and his new best friend the Green Monster would do well in Boston..and even if he is just the SDP version ..still about 50 OPS+ better than what they have + Grishman also improves them greatly (lol) it's funny but true...Obviously CJ is not Xander or anywhere close offensively..but the Defensive upgrade is immediate and the offensive drop off can be made by improving in so many areas...

 

Xander plays 2B for us.. Crone slides to 1B..we upgrade 2 positions with one move... CJ's potential is sexy.. but we are in win now mode and Ruiz in CF (after Grish traded) is enough rookies for a playoff bound team

A post season team needs 3 OPS + players over 135... right now we have 1 Manny at 168... (Mazara is 2 at 148 but very small sample size and most of it vs RHP)..Boggarts would be 2..and Tatis 3

As far as Snell replacement ... a SP like Zach Davies ($1.4mil) could easily be acquired and to that end all we need is a SP that can do better than Snell has in the 1st half.. I believe the team is 1-9 in games he has started...in the 2nd half

 

1 Tatis SS/CF/RF/DH

2 . Boggerts 2B/3B/SS/DH

3. Manny 3B

4 Contreras DH/1B/C (our 2nd Move for a Bat)

5. Crone 1B/2B/SS

6. Mazara RF/LF/DH

7. Alfaro C/DH

8. Myers LF/RF/CF

9. Ruiz CF

Bench

Profar LF/INF--Kim SS (vs lhp)/2B/3B/ --Nola C/2B-- Naquin (Reds 3rd trade minimal spec capital) CF (protection for Ruiz struggles)LF/RF

We have depth everywhere..versatility in starting lineup and bench alike and didn't have to empty the farm to do so.   We also save about $28mil towards CBT in 23.. But Xander will take 2/3+ of that in arb 3

Thought Bogarts signed a deal at $20MM per year that goes through 2025 (3 more years). BOST is not trading him.

Although BOST is already over the first threshold for CBT penalties, still well under the second level … so could be a home for Snell or Hosmer but probably not both.

Still take the view that dealing Hosmer (and his contract) requires getting zero in return (Maybe a low prospect). The 3 years remaining is just not appealing to anyone (see the Padres view). Sort of the same (but lesser so) with Snell. They would have to go to a contender at the deadline … and the contender is not going to move a good contributing player to their current success for scrap heap pieces from the Padres. Hard enough to get them to take the contracts.

Padres best approach would be to move the contracts for zip … open CBT space … make a separate deal for the needed upgrades … e.g. Contreras, Bell, Benintendi for prospects.

Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2022, 3:22 am

With Myers rehabbing and now playing in the field … a FA after the season so no long term commitment … might he be a trade piece to clear his $13MM AAV and open space for either Contreras or Bell in a separate trade?

PTNL type return and Padres kick in some of Myer’s remaining salary … that would still open enough space for adding a Contreras, etc.

BOST would work for him … fill in the OF/1B holes.

Quote from fenn68 on July 15, 2022, 4:36 am

Given the Benintendi situation disrupting his trade prospects to TOR and the AL contenders … wonder which Padre potential trade chips are also not vaccinated and therefore may become off the board for TOR and the other AL contenders?

No idea … but odds are that a number of the players are not vaccinated.