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Trades June/July/Deadline
#131 · July 4, 2022, 10:08 am
I guess just a cautionary thought about buying reputation (trade/FA) vs. the reality of what you might get for the price. Consider (per Baseball Reference) on FA signings last winter:
- Correa ... $105/3 ($35MM AAV): 1.9 WAR / 138 OPS+
- Seager ... $325/10 ($32.5MM): 1.5 WAR / 103 OPS+
- Freeman ... $162/6 ($27MM): 2.7 WAR / 144 OPS+
- Bryant ... $182/7 ($26MM): -0.3 WAR / 84 OPS+
- Semien ... $175/7 ($25MM): 1.2 WAR / 88 OPS+
- Story ... $140/6 ($23MM): 1.9 WAR / 94 OPS+
- Castallanos ... $100/5 ($20MM): -0.8 WAR / 91 OPS+
- Baez ... $140/6 ($23MM): 0.4 WAR / 76 OPS+
- Marte ... $78/4 ($19.5MM): 2.5 WAR / 125 OPS+
- Schwarber ... $79/4 ($19.5MM): 1.4 WAR / 131 OPS+
For the cost / commitment a lot of "less than expected results" .. yes, over along contract may return to previous levels (or not).
100 OPS+ is average ... so 5 of the 10 are below average (and Story is just near average). Also, for this money, would expect a WAR half way through the season to be at 1.5-2.0 ... so could argue only Freeman and Marie are earning their salary.
For comparision
- Profar: 2.8 WAR; 120 OPS+ is a bargain at $6.5MM but will motivate him to opt out after the season
- Cronenworth: 2.6 WAR; 110 OPS+ for league minimum is great but goes to Arb 1 after the season ... expect a nice increase
- Kim: 2.0 WAR; 95 OPS+ for $6MM ($28MM/4) is much better cost/benefit than thought.
So, I guess from an odds standpoint, getting early returns (maybe long term) even from the "best" of the available talent is clearly riskier than most fans think. Suspect the Padres' front office knows that and will temper the level of talent they will deal to get 2 months of a player in a deal or even if multi-year (think Ludwick, Frazier). Also, might not go wild in the FA market (these results, the Hosmer / Myers experience, and a tight payroll).
Should also balance all that with the success rate of prospects (also not perfect) and just the pure need for ML players.
Should add for you amusement where Hosmer stands: 0.9 WAR but a 112 OPS+. That OPS+ is better than 6 of the top 10 FA signings from last winter ... all at big money / long term. So, does a Hosmer with a go forward contract of $39MM/3 ($13MM AAV) find opting out more feasible?
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LynchMob
#132 · July 4, 2022, 11:02 am
I was looking at 22-23 (offseason FA) and a couple of Padres targets (just one to sign likely with our SP preference... but look at it this way ..we are re allocating Profar/Myers/Lamet $$$ for ONE BIG FA bat)
Xander (for 2B or CF or even RF he has never played on the grass but has a good arm and athletic ability...cause he is plain awful at SS) 29 will be 30 can opt out of 4/80 and will most likely... because of his Def shortcomings at short .. I think 5/120 to 125 gets it done... he is a 3 WAR player atm on his way to 5-6 + WAR... his bat is and has been as constant as any in baseball ..has solid 20-25 HR pop and ++ Hit tool with low SO rate... He could be our Position player splash of the offseason ... and his presence alone would allow us to play Ruiz (rookie) in LF..Grish in CF and XANDER in RF.. or Crone 1B and Xander at 2B.. 100% a target
Contreras...C/1B/DH again a very good hitter with the type of game that won't regress much at age 30 to 35 on a 5 yr /100 range would make sense.. he can 50/50 at C.. 25/75 at DH and 25/75 1B... or we could create even more space by moving from Hos or Voit.. 100% should pursuit
JD Martinez DH .. this one would be more of an upgrade at One position without addressing a need at another.. so only 50% in on him
Nimmo CF - injuries have robbed him of big time on the MLB..but he has remained healthier as of late..and is a terrific CFer..who would upgrade our CF situation temendously..3/45 with a 5/75 (options/buyout) +2 yrs ..should do it.. definetely a target 100%
Besides bringing back Profar 4/44 type deal.. 2 with 2 options maybe.. The rest of the OF FA class Gallo/Myers/Comforto/Benintendi/Peralta/Brantley is meh.. nothing to spend too much on..
Mancini 1B/DH/OF and Bell 1B/DH... are both in that position is worth less money for production and both are young enough for a 6/100-120 type deal...but maybe with the SS available for big $$$ (Correa/Turner etc) we could get lucky on a 6/80-90 for one of them
#133 · July 4, 2022, 11:22 am
Looking to Pitching
#134 · July 5, 2022, 8:44 am
Getting close to dealing with a number of IL players who seem to have a good chance to be off the IL by the trade deadline ... causing some 26 / 40 man roster issues.
- No issues with Wilson, Morejon, or Beaty ... all three can be optioned to the minors
- 26 man issues with Suarez and Myers ... neither can be optioned to the minors
- 26/40 man issues (60 day IL) with Pomeranz and Johnson ... neither can be optioned
- 26/40 man issue (60 day IL) with Tatis ... can be optioned but will not be
- ---- probably no issue with Adams on 60 day IL who does not seem close to returning
So, looking as though by the trade deadline the Padres will have to clear three 40 man roster slots for Tatis, Pomeranz, and Johnson. At the same time clear two 26 man roster slots for Myers and Suarez.
The return of Pomeranz, Suarez, and Johnson to the pen is going to force a trade / DFA since I think only Crismatt (he is not being optioned), Hill, and Scott have options. Puts Scott, Hill, and Stammen on shaky ground given their performances, in my mind.
The return of Myers and Tatis may be an optioning of Azocar and Batten for the 26 but still need a 40 man move.
Baring a 2 for 1 trade or a new 60 day IL ... I will go with removing Scott, Hill, and Stammen for the space in the 26/40 man rosters. Morejon and Wilson optioned will provide call-up support along with Lamet, Knehr, Kerr, and Baez ... all on the 40 man. Might choose to "save" Scott or Hill by optioning one and going DFA with Beaty,
Tie this into the decisions Preller has to make and how that may impact the 26/40 man rosters.
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LynchMob
#135 · July 5, 2022, 10:27 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2022, 8:44 amGetting close to dealing with a number of IL players who seem to have a good chance to be off the IL by the trade deadline ... causing some 26 / 40 man roster issues.
- No issues with Wilson, Morejon, or Beaty ... all three can be optioned to the minors
- 26 man issues with Suarez and Myers ... neither can be optioned to the minors
- 26/40 man issues (60 day IL) with Pomeranz and Johnson ... neither can be optioned
- 26/40 man issue (60 day IL) with Tatis ... can be optioned but will not be
- ---- probably no issue with Adams on 60 day IL who does not seem close to returning
So, looking as though by the trade deadline the Padres will have to clear three 40 man roster slots for Tatis, Pomeranz, and Johnson. At the same time clear two 26 man roster slots for Myers and Suarez.
The return of Pomeranz, Suarez, and Johnson to the pen is going to force a trade / DFA since I think only Crismatt (he is not being optioned), Hill, and Scott have options. Puts Scott, Hill, and Stammen on shaky ground given their performances, in my mind.
The return of Myers and Tatis may be an optioning of Azocar and Batten for the 26 but still need a 40 man move.
Baring a 2 for 1 trade or a new 60 day IL ... I will go with removing Scott, Hill, and Stammen for the space in the 26/40 man rosters. Morejon and Wilson optioned will provide call-up support along with Lamet, Knehr, Kerr, and Baez ... all on the 40 man. Might choose to "save" Scott or Hill by optioning one and going DFA with Beaty,
Tie this into the decisions Preller has to make and how that may impact the 26/40 man rosters.
I could see a Wethers to Reds (his Dad played a long time there) perhaps in a Castillo SP (Reds) more with an eye on 22 and 2023... others would be involved from our side...
Can see Snell (especially if this were to happen) to Toronto for a 2 or 3 spec package (non 40 man guys) like Luis Meza C and Fidertman (spelling their # 4 prospect -Pitcher) + other
Then one or all of Lamet (40)/Scott 26/40 options/Hill 26/40 opt/Stanmen 26/40.. Grishman 26/40 (if we go get a CF he becomes part of the return)...Lots of moving parts for sure .. but AJP always has a surprise or 2 we didn't see coming...Stay Tuned!...BUT more importantly ...Get Hot Padres!... break out of this funk and end the next 12 games before the AS with a Bang!
#136 · July 5, 2022, 11:53 am
So using fangraphs prospect value... Howell 45 spec position player is roughly = to Wil Myers $$ if we needed to clear the amount of $$ owed to Wil for 2022... which maybe one of the ways to add a Josh Bell.. or Trey Mancini to our roster which will require their own spec package...
Say we go get Josh Bell and Nats take Myers
Howell (to take Myers) + Mears 50 spec #8 + Kerr BP should be about right for the powerful 1B/DH
Hosmer 5/10 and owed a lot more $$ maybe an offseason move but if Bell is added..Voit/Hos could DH and either could give Bell a breather when he DHs for a day or 2.. Mancini doesn't have Bells power but from a playing standpoint (for Voit/Hos) it maybe more valuable with 1B/DH/RF coming into play.. important point with Tatis coming back as well... Contreras C/1B/DH could be another of the rentals.. The Nats/Orioles and Cubs can also be not opposed to being $$ eaters ...
Tatis can come in and upgrade CF/RF/SS.. and even 1B (by moving Crone there).. logically our most pressing needs for Offensive improvements are CF/RF... if we can somehow pull a Reynolds/Mullens or Hays type trade.. not sure any are available.. that would be my #1 option/choice even at a high prospect cost...
RF becomes the other spot.. even as good as Mazara has been he is more of a platoon (vs RHP) than an everyday guy..so a Santander/Mancini type would be BIG.. more like Mancini (1B) cause he adds another position to the mix
So position wise
CF
RF
1B
Obviously DH gets stronger by default
Besides the obvious.. a bench stick like Gamel/Drury would be big too...
#137 · July 5, 2022, 12:07 pm
WAS will get at least 1 really good prospect, and 2 more decent ones for just Bell, with out taking a contract like Myers. So no, WAS will not do one 45 level prospect and Myers for Bell.
#138 · July 5, 2022, 12:40 pm
I don’t know,Bell is a two month rental so they won’t get very much for him.
I’d prefer AJ get a corner OF that can also play 1b with at least one more year of control so if he hits we can put him at 1b next year if we can move Hoz or just release/bench him.
Not sure how many guys like this there are but off the top of my head…..Garrett Cooper maybe?
#139 · July 5, 2022, 12:54 pm
IF the Padres want a good trade they cannot afford to try to tack a bad contract into the deal unless they really want to overpay in terms of prospects. Other teams just don't want / need that burden. Plus clearly it does not help the Padres CBT position to eat salary.
Remember these sellers ... if their player is good ... will have multiple buyers interested who are not trying to dump deadwood on the seller. Plus sellers are usually bad teams that want long term control prospects.
If the issue is adding a player carrying a high CBT value requires an offsetting drop by moving a current Padre ... likely that can best be handled by dealing someone another team actually wants and has the right CBT number. Those choices are limited. Nobody wants Myers or Hosmer so the Padres would have to pay in terms of prospects to move either one and get little in return. So, who is left that fits ... Musgrove, Manaea, Snell, Darvish, and maybe a combo of Johnson / Suarez ... all should have buyers. Going that route ... for a short term bat ... comes with a high risk in 2022. However, who out of the mix is dependent on the buyer's view.
#140 · July 5, 2022, 12:54 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 5, 2022, 12:40 pmI don’t know,Bell is a two month rental so they won’t get very much for him.
I’d prefer AJ get a corner OF that can also play 1b with at least one more year of control so if he hits we can put him at 1b next year if we can move Hoz or just release/bench him.
Not sure how many guys like this there are but off the top of my head…..Garrett Cooper maybe?
Mancini but he is only controlled 2 months..still with Machado and some familiarity could be an easy re-up..has a mutual option but those are rarely exercised ..
A lot more clarity will come when teams that are within 5 or so of WC #3 in both leagues now begin to fade or not .. More names available...or also a contender with extra OFers in need of SP perhaps...