Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 3, 2022, 8:45 am

BTW Dodgers have like 2 position players who are home grown...

We have 2 atm... Tatis and CJ

I am always ok with specs for Youngish 27/28 yr olds with control... I didn't mind the Myers trade then and now, did we lose it yeah likely but Myers gave us good solid years... his contract extension is where we lost more value in my opinion ..but I was ok... btw I think Castillo in AAA BP arm was part of that trade too... so maybe we keep on getting some benefit from it

I am really ok with most of the trades AJP has made ..even Frazier.. who again we got some lotto tickets both from Pitt and Seattle who may make our ROI > down the line...if not for the medical fiasco of the Rae trade we would have Luis Castillo in SD and not in Cinci

The only trade I regret and I regret greatly was Nola + Adams for Trammell and France... France at DH/1B and Trammell pushing Grishman for ABs would have benefitted us way more than what Nola and Adams have so far...

We used capital (specs) to get Musgrove/Rogers/Clev/Snell/Yu/Manea/Crone/Grish/Profar ..etc...all of whom fit my criteria (except Yu but ok with P being a little older vs position guys)

2015 set us back by trading for aging vets in an effort to make a statement to the fan base..in that regard it worked ..om the field it didnt... BUT also considered what we got when we sold... Tatis Jr...

I have grown to admire the way AJP works and develops a minor league system... But at some point you have to use those chips to improve the MLB club... even the most System reliable teams like Bkue Jays and Rays have acquired over 70% of their rosters by trading specs

We have arguably 2 of the best 5 players in baseball and one of its top SP...all under 30 yrs of age... we need to push as hard as we can over the next 3 yrs to get it "Done"

Hays and Santander help push that narrative ...Reynolds is the difference maker ..but not at their ask...

Again I am not saying throw Hassell at a rental Bell/Contreras type... I am saying throw him at a guy like Hays/ or Reynolds...and only reason because Mears/Ruiz/Wood/Rooker are all incoming... if Hassell was our lone or 1 of 2 guys projected ro arrive in SD between 2023 and 2024 ..then no .. but that bus is filling up wirh talented dudes of = > pedigree

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 3, 2022, 9:01 am

LAD 91 HRs 1st

SDP 66... 24th

Biggest gap right here right now... Santander has 15... vs Myers/Mazara/Myers with what 3?... add Tatis in a month and we go from 24th in 1st half to top 5 in 2nd half

Just thinking out loud...

With that said Bell/Contreras might be cheaper as 2 month rentals .. and either would have the same effect...

Agree on Hays/Reynolds too costly prob more of an offseason deal... but besides POP the 2nd most Upgradable opportunity is CF... maybe it's time to give Estury a chance...

Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 9:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 3, 2022, 9:01 am

LAD 91 HRs 1st

SDP 66... 24th

Biggest gap right here right now... Santander has 15... vs Myers/Mazara/Myers with what 3?... add Tatis in a month and we go from 24th in 1st half to top 5 in 2nd half

Just thinking out loud...

With that said Bell/Contreras might be cheaper as 2 month rentals .. and either would have the same effect...

Agree on Hays/Reynolds too costly prob more of an offseason deal... but besides POP the 2nd most Upgradable opportunity is CF... maybe it's time to give Estury a chance...

Bell could be an “interesting” trade structure assuming the Padres would want to somehow offset his money for the CBT. He would be an upgrade at either 1B or DH and as a switch hitter would be full time. I think the could outbid BOST whose farm system is not that compelling.

WASH is very bad and is losing a bundle of players (and payroll) to FA after the season. That could go two ways. First, want prospects but avoid short term / higher cost players in return. Alternative, room to take an offset contract to get a better package of prospects. (Side: no idea on their plan on bidding on Bell as a FA but looking like BIG BIG money may be headed towards SOTO … $40MM AAV range).

Bell is a rental … so should not get a top prospect from anyone. So, long shot strategy is to put a much better prospect into the mix (eg Campusano) IF WASH also takes a major bad contract(s) (see Hosmer, Snell that extends beyond 2022) to offset Bell’s money. WASH can handle the payroll hit in 2023 and will need bodies.

Another route is to deal a package of second tier prospects to WASH for Bell (and his contract) and at the same time deal Snell (and his contract) to TOR for a package of second tier prospects. Preller is creative so maybe the prospects gained from TOR become the prospects to WASH. Net to the Padres is the same prospects in the system as now .. Bell for 2022 … Snell gone for 2022/23 … CBT space opened up in 2023 for re-signs / FA.

Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 10:09 am

It is difficult to balance all the parts in a single deal. So, with the SD pitchers entering the mix in July … should Preller focus on dealing a SP (in demand) for prospects to create CBT space and add to the prospect pool for trades? Do that first?

At that point he would have greater flexibility with prospect trade chips and CBT space to negotiate with other teams … maybe a larger pool of target adds.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 11:13 am

Padres option Kerr to AAA after an ugly game yesterday

DFA Kyle Tyler (RP/SP) who has been a ping pong ball in MLB this year with DFA/claims

Add Tayler Scott, 30 year old RP down in EP … can’t say I am excited about him.

———

Other than the obvious question as to why not Castillo if they are making a 40 man roster move … does highlight some weakness in the pen’s depth and should make us focus more on the return of Pomeranz, Johnson, and Suarez with the potential for RP help via trade.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 3, 2022, 11:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 11:13 am

Padres option Kerr to AAA after an ugly game yesterday

DFA Kyle Tyler (RP/SP) who has been a ping pong ball in MLB this year with DFA/claims

Add Tayler Scott, 30 year old RP down in EP … can’t say I am excited about him.

———

Other than the obvious question as to why not Castillo if they are making a 40 man roster move … does highlight some weakness in the pen’s depth and should make us focus more on the return of Pomeranz, Johnson, and Suarez with the potential for RP help via trade.

Why not Baez or Castillo... I know the workload not quite there on both but Tyler Scott?? And Kyle Taylor actually pitched great when he was given a chance.... so what if he doesn't throw 100... I think he had a 0.00 ERA in a couple chances... and why not Reiss Knehr...all he did was pitched 4.2 IP of absolutely good baseball... why is he (I know he is a SP but looked great out of the BP)...I have lots of ?? With this sequence of moves...

 

Just looked up Tyler Scott's 14+ ERA numbers in Seattle and Baltimore ...just awful...but do also acknowledge the adjustment he Made at AAA where his control and SO resulted in some very nice #s in El Paso....

With so many BP arms struggling out there I don't get how a P like Kyle Tyler career 2.20 ERA in the MLB 0.00 with Pads.. even with his pitch ability very low SO rate... gets DFA like this... again why not just run him out til he pitches himself out of the MLB... I get the rational for it..but if someone doesn't get hit he doesn't get hit...until he does.. anyway hope Tyler Scott has made the right adjustments to help our BP

Quote from Randy Manese on July 3, 2022, 1:03 pm

Tayler Scott is another of the pitchers the Padres signed from Japan this winter.  He was invited to spring training and was one of the last cuts.  I thought he looked pretty decent in his spring training outings and has also looked good at El Paso, although Padres defense behind him has been awful (32 runs allowed but only 16 earned runs).  Basically, a ground ball pitcher who doesn't walk very many and historically keeps the ball in the yard.  Numbers are up regarding the latter, but attribute that to the PCL parks.

I don't think this is the last bullpen move.  Baez just pitched two innings yesterday, so that probably eliminated him from being called up today.  Castillo seems to be more hittable lately but still serviceable; may him see him if Hill falters badly; moreover Padres really need a RH arm vice left, because closer is LHP.   Who to DFA?  More likely Tyler sneaks through than any other of their pitchers or hitters.  It's always a gamble.  Tyler has some skills but so does Scott and Scott has a lot more experience.  We really need Wilson and Morejon back soon but Pomeranz, Johnson and Suarez coming back in the next couple of weeks would be even better.

Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 3:54 pm

The speculation for the two best SP trade chips would be Castillo (CINN) and Montes (OAK). Montes just got pulled in the 1st after a noticeable drop in velocity … a worrisome sign of a potential injury.

The demand for SP will not be going down but if the top supply is cut by 50% … Castillo’s price has just jumped. Also this weekend PHIL had a second SP go IL potentially intensifying demand.

Could as a domino effect … the trade value of a Padre SP also jump?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 3, 2022, 5:02 pm

1. Quote from fenn68 on July 3, 2022, 3:54 pm

The speculation for the two best SP trade chips would be Castillo (CINN) and Montes (OAK). Montes just got pulled in the 1st after a noticeable drop in velocity … a worrisome sign of a potential injury.

The demand for SP will not be going down but if the top supply is cut by 50% … Castillo’s price has just jumped. Also this weekend PHIL had a second SP go IL potentially intensifying demand.

Could as a domino effect … the trade value of a Padre SP also jump?

Snell value just doubled.. I am sorry but he is the one I dont trust...BUT he is a Dodger killer soooo...

Only way I trade Snell though is if #1 all 7 are healthy at the deadline... and #2 I ink Musgrove (during All Star break)... long term...