Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 2, 2022, 6:08 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 2, 2022, 5:38 pm

Surely we try to sign Clevinger and Bell?

Can we even afford too?

 

Yes..just not all of them....Manea or Clev..... Bell if around 4/60.. Maybe Martinez (if he opts out).. Profar (maybe).... got to see where we at Spotrac once all the $$ are updated....

Quote from fenn68 on August 2, 2022, 8:33 pm

Without the correct specifics of how the money has moved … just taking quick and dirty shot at where they may sit on 2023 AAV … think they will have about $2o-25MM as to work with to stay under the CBT (assumes Profar and Martinez opt out but not Suarez).

So with that need to sign a replacement for Profar (LF), Clevinger / Manaea (SP), Martinez (RP),  and add a 1B and a DH. Going to be a challenge.

Morejon at minimum may cover a SP slot … Tatis covers in some sort one of LF/1B/DH but two still open … so maybe need three legit adds in SP and two position players assuming the bench is at minimum. Not easy with $20MM and not support coming from the minors.

Not sure what AAV they may move in the winter to open more room … but if Pomeranz comes on strong in Sept and Castillo remains strong in AAA … could see Preller move either Hader or Pomeranz for prospects and clear some additional payroll space. Both carry a pretty healthy AAV and both will be FA after 2023.

Going to be a gamble somewhere on the 26 … SP or 1B/DH/OF. RP may be the most coverage.

Machado - Tatis - Soto - Kim - Cronenworth are a pretty good offense base Grisham and Alfaro/Nola are serviceable but zip for the other two slots. Musgrove, Snell, Darvish should be a good base… some gamble on Morejon … and the 5th is ???????

So three for $20MM … with some playoff level quality … hard. A winter problem for Preller but trading Hader or Pomeranz helps.

Quote from JasonE135 on August 2, 2022, 11:50 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 2, 2022, 8:33 pm

Without the correct specifics of how the money has moved … just taking quick and dirty shot at where they may sit on 2023 AAV … think they will have about $2o-25MM as to work with to stay under the CBT (assumes Profar and Martinez opt out but not Suarez).

So with that need to sign a replacement for Profar (LF), Clevinger / Manaea (SP), Martinez (RP),  and add a 1B and a DH. Going to be a challenge.

Morejon at minimum may cover a SP slot … Tatis covers in some sort one of LF/1B/DH but two still open … so maybe need three legit adds in SP and two position players assuming the bench is at minimum. Not easy with $20MM and not support coming from the minors.

Not sure what AAV they may move in the winter to open more room … but if Pomeranz comes on strong in Sept and Castillo remains strong in AAA … could see Preller move either Hader or Pomeranz for prospects and clear some additional payroll space. Both carry a pretty healthy AAV and both will be FA after 2023.

Going to be a gamble somewhere on the 26 … SP or 1B/DH/OF. RP may be the most coverage.

Machado - Tatis - Soto - Kim - Cronenworth are a pretty good offense base Grisham and Alfaro/Nola are serviceable but zip for the other two slots. Musgrove, Snell, Darvish should be a good base… some gamble on Morejon … and the 5th is ???????

So three for $20MM … with some playoff level quality … hard. A winter problem for Preller but trading Hader or Pomeranz helps.

2023:

C- Alfaro/Nola/Campusano

1B- Crone

2B- Kim

3B- Machado

SS- Tatis

LF- Soto (LF is where he really belongs)

CF- Grisham

RF- Mazara

DH- Alfaro/Campusano(plus bat, suspect defense/game calling=DH)

All are currently under the Padres control for 2023. 10 players for 9 positions. No added payroll. Only below average OPS+ is Grish.

Starters:

1)Musgrove

2)Darvish

3)Snell

4)Clevinger (I expect the Padres to try to re-sign him)

5)Free Agent (need to sign)

6)Martinez equivalent (need to sign)

7)Morejon (injury history/innings limit make him a limited starter)

8/9/10)Knehr/Groome/Lawson (ugh, we will have to pray!)

This lineup would leave that $20-$25 million available next year only having to cover Clevinger and 2 bottom of the rotation starters. It's possible.

Quote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 4:06 am

I came up a little different in build a team / CBT for 2023:

Looked at AAV for players under contract (8): $125MM

Estimated ARB decisions .(8) ... big ups for Soto and Hader: $51MM

Roster players TBD at minimum (10): $8-9MM

Cash to BOST for Hosmer: $12.3MM

Benefits, remainder of 40 man, etc: $20MM

Assumed Profar, Martinez, and Suarez all opted out: 0

That gets me to $216MM ... about $17MM under the $233MM first threshold.

That would have to cover replacing (re-signing) Bell, Drury, Profar, Mazara, Manaea, Clevinger, Martinez, Suarez ... without much in the way of internal candidates (except maybe RP)

Note if Profar, Martinez, and Suarez did NOT opt out ... Padres would be OVER the CBT by about $3MM.

Either scenario puts a squeeze on developing a 2023 roster given the FA departures.

Quote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 4:20 am

Assuming opt outs the base case roster, maybe:

C: Alfaro; Nola; Campusano

1B: Cronenworth

2B: Kim; Rosario

SS: Tatis; Batten

3B: Machado

LF: Soto

CF: Grisham

RF: Beaty; Azocar

SP: Musgrove; Darvish; Snell; Morejon; Weathers

RP: Hader; Pomeranz; Hill; Garcia; Crismatt; Baez; Wilson; Knehr

---

In that base case ... worried about RF and DH for the offense ... worried about #4, #5 SP ... and $17MM does not go very far in addressing all those holes.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 5:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 4:06 am

I came up a little different in build a team / CBT for 2023:

Looked at AAV for players under contract (8): $125MM

Estimated ARB decisions .(8) ... big ups for Soto and Hader: $51MM

Roster players TBD at minimum (10): $8-9MM

Cash to BOST for Hosmer: $12.3MM

Benefits, remainder of 40 man, etc: $20MM

Assumed Profar, Martinez, and Suarez all opted out: 0

That gets me to $216MM ... about $17MM under the $233MM first threshold.

That would have to cover replacing (re-signing) Bell, Drury, Profar, Mazara, Manaea, Clevinger, Martinez, Suarez ... without much in the way of internal candidates (except maybe RP)

Note if Profar, Martinez, and Suarez did NOT opt out ... Padres would be OVER the CBT by about $3MM.

Either scenario puts a squeeze on developing a 2023 roster given the FA departures.

Arb $$ are calculated weird ..looked up Soto 17mil foe 2022 but only 6mil AAV. Harder $11mil but only $3.33 AAV

So that $51;u projected might be more like upper $20's

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 5:36 am

Also easy to see one of Garcia/Pomz/Suarez being dealt in offseason if not 2...

Internal BP options

Hadder CL

Wilson/Castillo/Cosgrove/Hill/Adams/Cristmatt/Morejon/Baez/and more

 

If we can keep Profar + Nick Mart (can see him opt in. Especially if he is SP in 2023 (=build more $$ for opt out following year)+ resign Clevenger (loves SD I can see 2/20+ option/s type deal).. we pretty much cover everything with => talent vs 2022 1st 1/2  roster

Bench guys like Batten/Azocar/ are very valuable cost and versatility wise.. i see both going to AAA when Beaty +Tatis come off 60 .

I also see a possible Kim trade in the offseason... too much $$ to sit AND a red hot progressing prospect Rosario ready to assume that role if not more for $7mil LESS

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 5:45 am

Bottomline ... we can field an incredible team for 2023 .. But will need help from

Rosario/Groome/Wethers/Khner/Batten/Azocar/Kowhley??

Not unlike 2022 so far.. one break out (Groome or Wethers from SP and Rosario being >CJ(2022).. in 2023 and we are golden.. look for specs Ornelas/Hollis and Howell to make loud cases for 2023 consideration in ST

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 5:50 am

With Voit being a nontender candidate in Washington..can always bring him back cheaper..