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Trades June/July/Deadline
#101 · June 30, 2022, 1:52 pm
I believe you left out Johnson's $3M at the end of 2022, so it should be at least $45.6M coming off the books to be redistributed. Moreover, there are several other players who likely will not be offered arbitration - maybe another $5 to 7 M. I have a feeling all 3 players will opt out, however, likely we re-sign Martinez to a contract that is just a little bit more than his current salary. He's okay as the 5th/6th starter but not likely to get paid any higher than that for someone his age and lack of MLB experience - maybe $8 - 8.5 tops.
The wild card is Snell, who only is carrying a $10M AAV but whose salary will be $16M. He's a tempting trading piece but what can you get for someone so erratic - a potentially very good but so far erratic and underperforming OF like Adell or Kelenic? Also, who replaces Snell in the rotation? Darvish, Musgrove, Clevinger, Gore and Martinez give you a heavy RHP rotation. Neither Weathers nor Morejon will fill that role. I'd try to find a mid-rotation arm who is on the rise, preferably a LHP, and possibly trade away some prospects. Snell has 4-5 starts before the trade deadline - let' s see what happens.
I have no clue who Preller will trade for, if anyone, before the trade deadline but there is certainly going to be a lot of money available to work out some contracts for those who will carry us forward from 2023-2025.
#102 · June 30, 2022, 1:53 pm
Don't forget arb decisions Voit non tender or yes and Lamet non tender 100% as he would be at least $6.5mil
And also remember Pads can go way over Lux Cap in 23 if they avoid going over in 2022... when factoring all of it...
#103 · June 30, 2022, 2:06 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on June 30, 2022, 1:52 pmThe wild card is Snell, who only is carrying a $10M AAV but whose salary will be $16M. He's a tempting trading piece but what can you get for someone so erratic - a potentially very good but so far erratic and underperforming OF like Adell or Kelenic? Also, who replaces Snell in the rotation? Darvish, Musgrove, Clevinger, Gore and Martinez give you a heavy RHP rotation. Neither Weathers nor Morejon will fill that role. I'd try to find a mid-rotation arm who is on the rise, preferably a LHP, and possibly trade away some prospects. Snell has 4-5 starts before the trade deadline - let' s see what happens.
This is where we disagree, I think both will be capable of replacing what we regularly are getting from Snell.
And in the scenario that we have been discussing, Martinez will not be here next season, as he will probably opt out.
So that leaves a guarantee of Darvish and Gore, and the hopeful resigning of Musgrove and Clevinger. Leaving the need for a 5th starter from Weathers, Morejon, maybe Baez.
Maybe Lamet if he can show for the balance of this season, that he is worth a $7M gamble.
#104 · June 30, 2022, 2:09 pm
I think Nola carries a lot of value cause he is so cheap... both to the Padres and to someone trying to get him
From internal options.. Grish/Azocar/Ruiz/Rooker/Kowhley all ready to compete for OF spots
Martin 1B/Rosario INF/Batten IF/OF
IF we were to land a Reynolds (long controlled fixture in the OF) type now.. AJP can just bring in a Gallo at a discount.. 2 yr + opt type deal.. and have Ruiz/Grish/Rooker and the rest battle it out in left... I mean one ++ of our current OF situation for 2022 is. It is very Upgradable with minimal $$$...
The IF Machado/Tatis/Crone and Hos (even if he stays) will be vastly improved from opening day to opening day..and I thought I read Nola/Alfaro C ranked 4th in baseball overall .. so not hard to upgrade our Position players at all..with further reinforcements following in late 23 /2024..
So DH if we trade or non tender Voit could be a mix of Alfaro/Campy/Rooker with = or better production...or an add like Josh Bell who will command maybe 5/75.. but likely less in FA
Lots of moving parts ...perhaps more than most teams as injuries and prospects putting themselves on the map(discussion) have created a nice Depth problem/Incoming decisions
#105 · June 30, 2022, 2:13 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 2:06 pmQuote from Randy Manese on June 30, 2022, 1:52 pmThe wild card is Snell, who only is carrying a $10M AAV but whose salary will be $16M. He's a tempting trading piece but what can you get for someone so erratic - a potentially very good but so far erratic and underperforming OF like Adell or Kelenic? Also, who replaces Snell in the rotation? Darvish, Musgrove, Clevinger, Gore and Martinez give you a heavy RHP rotation. Neither Weathers nor Morejon will fill that role. I'd try to find a mid-rotation arm who is on the rise, preferably a LHP, and possibly trade away some prospects. Snell has 4-5 starts before the trade deadline - let' s see what happens.
This is where we disagree, I think both will be capable of replacing what we regularly are getting from Snell.
And in the scenario that we have been discussing, Martinez will not be here next season, as he will probably opt out.
So that leaves a guarantee of Darvish and Gore, and the hopeful resigning of Musgrove and Clevinger. Leaving the need for a 5th starter from Weathers, Morejon, maybe Baez.
Maybe Lamet if he can show for the balance of this season, that he is worth a $7M gamble.
Agreed...Snell thus far is 0-7 in his starts (team and pkayer) so my grandma could replace Snell and the team could still be 0-7.. is that easy..hell Wethers could throw 5ip x 7 starts and who knows we might be 1 and 6.. 2 and 5..better..(can't be worse)
I also disagree on Lamet.. if AJP makes only 1 move it will be getting Lamet traded...the gamble for that $$ for a guy that is one apperance from not being able to be optioned to the minors and the occupation of a 40 man spot make Lamet almost a certainty to be dealt and soon
#106 · June 30, 2022, 2:13 pm
Matt Batten is headed to LA to join the Padres tonight … needs to be added to the 40 man and 26 man. Decent bench type that fills in all over the field.
Probably Alcantara is DFA unless there is an injury we are unaware of.
#107 · June 30, 2022, 2:20 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 2:13 pmMatt Batten is headed to LA to join the Padres tonight … needs to be added to the 40 man and 26 man. Decent bench type that fills in all over the field.
Probably Alcantara is DFA unless there is an injury we are unaware of.
Oh this is great news ..dude is a Bat to ball speedy guy capable of multi position flex with solid D everywhere he plays... a much better hitter than Alcantara ..with more flexibility and help for the lineup... #26 in top 30 prospect list...a chance to find out what he can do to keep him on 40 for 23.. build his value for a trade.. (or a Kim trade) knowing we have someone that can assume various roles (Azocar/Alcantara and Kim's) in one spot
| 299 | .399 | .504 | .903 |
#108 · June 30, 2022, 2:35 pm
1. Probably first would spend on re-signing Musgrove ($25MM), Manaea ($16MM), and Clevinger ($12MM with incentives) and keep that core with Darvish and Gore … 3 RHP / 2 LHP and have Morejon as the 6th SP as needed.
2. More than most think they need to lock up Profar … agree a Canha type deal at $13MM AAV seems in the ballpark. Good offense / very good defense / plus great team player.
3. Don’t focus on the return but work to clear the contracts via trade of Snell and Kim … and trade / non-tender Voit / Lamet to expand the under cap position.
4. Work hard on a deal for Reynolds … long control and able to play all three OF slots … maybe Campusano, Weathers, Grisham, Rosario …
5. That should leave enough on the table for a very good FA signing (or trade) for a quality bat (but not a 1B/DH type since but would prefer someone who can play a position other than 1B for rotational / injury purposes).
I focus on the longer term and the lack of quality SP in the system coming soon … and Darvish / Snell are FA after 2023. Good time to lock down at least 4 SP slots for another 3-4 years. Also, am gambling that CF can be covered by E.Ruiz and/or Abrams long term over Grisham but Reynolds can slide to CF if needed.
After 2023 … Darvish, Garcia, Suarez, and Pomeranz are FA … all will likely go and open up a bunch more room under the CBT threshold for either critical FA signings or locking down some of the better young players longer term (as they did with Tatis).
#109 · June 30, 2022, 2:39 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 30, 2022, 2:20 pmQuote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 2:13 pmMatt Batten is headed to LA to join the Padres tonight … needs to be added to the 40 man and 26 man. Decent bench type that fills in all over the field.
Probably Alcantara is DFA unless there is an injury we are unaware of.
Oh this is great news ..dude is a Bat to ball speedy guy capable of multi position flex with solid D everywhere he plays... a much better hitter than Alcantara ..with more flexibility and help for the lineup... #26 in top 30 prospect list...a chance to find out what he can do to keep him on 40 for 23.. build his value for a trade.. (or a Kim trade) knowing we have someone that can assume various roles (Azocar/Alcantara and Kim's) in one spot
299 .399 .504 .903
Padres will get a good look see on Batten and if he is at least serviceable as a ML back-up and thus making it more feasible to deal Kim (and his contract).
Alcantara is not a high bar to clear.
#110 · June 30, 2022, 2:53 pm
I like all your takes..yeah I love guys like Profar..I dont know if anyone noticed but he got on Bumgarner head after he walked him and they were Jawing back and forth as he jogged to 1st base..shortly after Bum melted down and we scored... He also is a very good lead off man.. he wears pitchers down ..doesn't strike out much and keeps fouling balls off on his way to a hit/ a BB or a flyout/groundout.. very underrated skill set now days...