Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 11:31 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 30, 2022, 11:25 am

I could see a team like the Cubs or Tigers being willing to take that on to pickup Campusano. Hosmer could be a mentor to their young players and they both are set to lose their catchers. Maybe something like Hosmer, Campusano and a lower ranked prospect for a rental reliever like Robertson, Fulmer, or Chafin could work.

If you could see the CHC being interested in Hosmer/Campusano package, maybe they could expand the deal, and net SD Happ and Contreras for a better package of Hosmer, Campusano, and maybe Weathers and/or Rosario.

**Although I waver on trading Hosmer during the season, as I think he is really vital to the clubhouse chemistry......just saying.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 11:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 11:25 am

Now if the Padres really wanted Bell ... sign him over the winter as a FA and non-tender Voit to save some money and avoid clogging up the DH roles which would go between Bell, Hosmer, and the "rotation" of position players. (would have not problem moving on from Voit). Maybe they trade Voit for Bell as a baseline?

Voit/Kim and one or two decent prospects for Bell?

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 11:45 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 30, 2022, 11:25 am

It might be wishful thinking, but I still haven't given up on the idea of trading Hosmer. On the open market I could see him getting somewhere around 8m in the Aguilar/Santana range. With the remainder of this year's salary factored in, a team that traded for him would be on the hook for somewhere around a 14m AAV going forward.

I could see a team like the Cubs or Tigers being willing to take that on to pickup Campusano. Hosmer could be a mentor to their young players and they both are set to lose their catchers. Maybe something like Hosmer, Campusano and a lower ranked prospect for a rental reliever like Robertson, Fulmer, or Chafin could work.

Hosmer's AAV for the Padres is 18m, so a move would free up significant space for deadline moves. They could offset the Hosmer move with a move for someone like Bell, Cruz or Mancini and still have the ability to make other moves. Perhaps more importantly it would also give them a lot more money to work with in the off-season.

Agree with all the benefits of moving Hosmer from a luxury tax perspective ... and probably an in-game perspective IF comfortable with getting the replacement bat in the line-up.  Still some concern about the impact on the team (Machado specifically) since ... like it or not ... is a key piece in the clubhouse.

One problem is that to move Hosmer would need to add a top prospect (e.g. Campusano) and to add a quality replacement bat (other than a rental) would require dealing another prospect(s). If it is a rental, need a replacement bat in 2023 (along with the other bats already needed) and running out of prospects to deal and multiple quality FA are going to be expensive (and hard to fit in if re-sign the current FA.)

Hosmer sort of screws up the future if he stays or if he is traded. Keep in mind even if Hosmer gets the full no trade rights via the 10-5 rule, he still could be traded IF he agrees (which usually comes with some form of monetary incentive). If nothing happens at the trade deadline ... maybe a Hosmer / Campusano based deal still could happen with Hosmer's OK. That would make the most sense for Hosmer if he is disenchanted with the Padres ... he leaves AND keeps his guaranteed $39MM+. Might even be good for the Padres by not upsetting the 2022 "chemistry" on one of the best teams in the NL.

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 12:05 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 11:31 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 30, 2022, 11:25 am

I could see a team like the Cubs or Tigers being willing to take that on to pickup Campusano. Hosmer could be a mentor to their young players and they both are set to lose their catchers. Maybe something like Hosmer, Campusano and a lower ranked prospect for a rental reliever like Robertson, Fulmer, or Chafin could work.

If you could see the CHC being interested in Hosmer/Campusano package, maybe they could expand the deal, and net SD Happ and Contreras for a better package of Hosmer, Campusano, and maybe Weathers and/or Rosario.

**Although I waver on trading Hosmer during the season, as I think he is really vital to the clubhouse chemistry......just saying.

That would be a real blockbuster but Cubs would want a ton more for a rental of Contreras (All-Star catcher), Happ (hot hitter with 1 1/2 years of control) while taking Hosmer's full contract (which the Padres need to balance the CBT numbers).

Campusano ... but then may have to be talking one of Abrams - Hassell - Wood - Merrill before you get to the 2-4 secondary prospects. Cubs could get a decent return for Contreras and Happ by dealing them independently and not get burdened by Hosmer's money.

Opens up some Padre money for 2023 but with his season Happ's arb number should push $10MM. Doubt the Padres could re-sign Contreras (will cost a lot) and Padres still need money for the re-signing their SP / Profar.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 30, 2022, 12:42 pm

I like Happ a lot... Contreras would be awesome as well

I think Voit for Bell is a pretty even trade because Voit has 1 1/2 yrs of control and Bell 2 months

Imagine Voit + Mundo to Nats for Bell

Hosmer + Lamet + Campy + Wethers + Kowhley (type of name that belongs at Wrigley) for Happ + Contreras

26 man in ..Contreras 1B/DH/C + Bell 1B/DH + Happ/ OF/IF

Out - Hosmer 1B/DH + Voit 1B/DH... probably Alcantara DFA with Happ/Profar able to play IF but not SS..(CJ/KIm/Crone)

The offensive upgrades alone make this a tremendous get ..for the stretch..with financial freedom for 2023 and at least 1 controlled bat in Happ who can play a little CF...and more position flexibility incoming vs leaving..

From a Chenistry point not sure how this feels in Clubhouse but Happ is very much a gamer like Crone zone.. Contreras and Manny seem very friendly towards each other from the Cubs game...Bell don't know... I think it will work cause Bo Mel can sell it as an all out effort to Win this year and the team will be fired up...

3 of 13 position player flip is pretty big

Probably wouldn't make anymore changes on that side of the isle...but maybe add a BP arm and move a few out of P (Snell?)

Then again AJP loves Castillo (Rae trade had to return him) and always seems to inquire about him...so who knows how active/non active AJP will be at the deadline... I am sure Grish/Mazara/Profar/Voit/Hos performances over the next few weeks as well as Snell/Hill/Stanmen...BP Health/Tatis progress..Manny's return...will weigh a lot on AJPs decisions/direction in the upcoming negotiations...to a lesser extend the MLB draft and who we end up with might affect secondary pieces included or excluded from trades...

Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 12:53 pm

Here are some numbers everyone can use when thinking/talking trades, since SD is going to subtract to add to avoid going over the CBT.

These numbers are Luxury Tax salaries (CBT) per spotrac.com

Machado-$30M, Tatis-$24.3M, Darvish-$21.5M, Hosmer-$18M, Myers-$13.8M, Snell-$10M, Manaea-$9.75M, Musgrove-$8.6M, Pomeranz-$8.5M, Profar-$7M, Kim-$7M, Martinez-$6.4M, Clevinger-$5.75M, Voit-$5.5M, Suarez-$5.5M, Stammen-$4M, Garcia-$3.5M, Johnson-$3M, Alfaro-$2.7M, and Hill-$1.3M. Everyone else is below the $1M in CBT hits.

Deals that end at the end of the season.

Myers-$13.8M, Manaea-$9.75M, Musgrove-$8.6M, Clevinger-$5.75M, Stammen-$4M, Rogers-$700K. Thats $42.6M coming off the books for sure.

Deals with opt outs at the end of the season.

Hosmer-$18M, Profar-$7M, Martinez-$6.4M, another $31.4M that "could" come off the books.

Total that could come off the books after 2022 season - up to $74M.

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 1:23 pm

Good reference … so the baseline for thinking is the $42.6MM and need to sign SP. Musgrove at least gets $25MM of that leaving maybe $17.6MM to fill the other SP slot(s) and add at least one impact bat.  I guess add another $3MM since the threshold does move up. That is “thin” and would lead Preller to trades or internal options.

The wild cards become the opt-outs … and my best guess is Hosmer does not but Profar and Martinez do .. opens another $13.4MM. However, now needing a replacement for Profar and adds more pressure to sign SP.

That scenario will either make the Padres rely on internal prospect delivering (e.g. Morejon, Baez, Abrams, Ruiz, Campusano) or making deals with those prospects for low AAV / long control ML quality. Does not set up a good scenario for signing multiple high AAV FA. The $56MM (my estimate) available (reduced a bit for arb decisions … e.g. Cronenworth, Alfaro, Nola, Voit, et al) will go quickly if Musgrove takes about half and need 2 OF and 1 or 2 SP.

Also, Preller may need (want) to expand the available room by non-tendering / trading Voit / Lamet for little return and Kim off the bench.

A lot of moving parts to make 2023 work … and not all in Preller’s control.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 30, 2022, 1:46 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 11:31 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 30, 2022, 11:25 am

I could see a team like the Cubs or Tigers being willing to take that on to pickup Campusano. Hosmer could be a mentor to their young players and they both are set to lose their catchers. Maybe something like Hosmer, Campusano and a lower ranked prospect for a rental reliever like Robertson, Fulmer, or Chafin could work.

If you could see the CHC being interested in Hosmer/Campusano package, maybe they could expand the deal, and net SD Happ and Contreras for a better package of Hosmer, Campusano, and maybe Weathers and/or Rosario.

**Although I waver on trading Hosmer during the season, as I think he is really vital to the clubhouse chemistry......just saying.

I would argue that with Bob Melvin we're in a better position to handle trading Hosmer from a clubhouse perspective than we have been in past years. I would also argue that the increase in performance on the field from the likes of a Bell, Cruz, or Mancini plus anyone else we might be able to bring in would more than offset the loss in chemistry. Nothing builds chemistry like winning. I also think the likes of Manny, Musgrove and Profar would be able to keep the team together.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 1:48 pm

So for the offseason, yes we would have roughly $59M to sign Musgrove. Pay for arb raises of the guys you mentioned, and then replace Profar and Martinez considering we both think they will opt out.

Profar, maybe he gets a raise and gets close to Canha's contract 3ys/$36M and stays with SD. I let Martinez go IMO.

I think Crone will get the biggest arb bump, maybe a candidate for a 4-5 year contract in the $35-40M range. Alfaro is a great long term back up/spot starter Catcher, who is having a great season, should get a decent bump as well, maybe a 5 year contract in the $10-15M range.

Not sure what to make of Nola, so trade him to PHI, so he can hang with his brother and back up Realmulto? Voit, send him packing along with Snell. Those two can save almost $22M± in 2023.

Trade for Reynolds (RF), and let spring battle for CF settle between Abrams, Ruiz, and Grisham.