Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2018, 5:02 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 12, 2018, 2:57 pm

So one day after the Astros send their Closer to the minor leagues they blow another Save.

You have to believe they are thinking they need a guy like Brad Hand.

They have a guy I’ve always coveted who has no position with the Astros....Tony Kemp.

With no place to play he’s too good to play 2-3 times a week IMO.Anyone think the Stros are calling about our Relievers and if so....what do you think would be a good enough return from them for AJ to pull the trigger?

 

Sort of depends on which Padre RP is targeted by Houston ... Hand or Yates or Stammen.

Houston has some quality pieces but seems to fall off quickly in volume. They will NOT deal Tucker (OF) or Whitley (SP) to anyone for a RP (or maybe for any player). Maybe the most near term intriguing prospect is a LHH OF/1B who just got promoted to AAA ... Yordan Alvarez who just turned 21 last month ... a plus hitter with power but just OK defensively. 1B is clearly not a need but as a LHH OF he might be an interesting alternative to Renfroe (if he does not progress), Reyes (who I don't expect to progress), and Cordero (who know). After that, some nice pieces as pitchers or players far off. Since one corner OF slot is far from settled and other than Hosmer there is a void in LHH support ... maybe as the key return piece.

Kemp I too like (used to like him a lot more when he was a prospect) ... but he will be 27 next season and seems to have settled into a super utility role when he is up (in AAA now) basically 2B/OF ... does not seem with the Padres he would bump Urias or any of the OF. Maybe a secondary piece if the Padres move on from Pirela, Spangenberg, Villanueva.

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2018, 5:33 pm

MLB had an article ranking the contenders who need RP ... does not mean they will deal (or have the assets) but just they have the real need.

Cleveland was the neediest followed by Atlanta, StL, Philadelphia ... but that does not preclude the others who may want to take a good pen to higher levels (so would not exclude that possibility).

Again it depends if they are interested in Hand or Yates or Stammen ... each will have the own bias and each has a different set of assets they may be willing to move so maybe the buy down (e.g. Stammen) because that is what they are willing to pay to get.

Cleveland has some depth in the farm system ... are in a closing window over the next couple of years ... and are not strong financially (although money is coming off the books this winter). All the Padres options are low cost and controlled so should fit the Indians' criteria. Add that they have history in giving up prospects for RP (see Miller). They are a team that could "overpay". My bias is that I don't like their #1 (Mejia, poor defensive catcher with a strong bat) so passing on him would be easy but the next guy might be the crux of roadblock ... RHP Mckenzie (20, in AA) ... likely someone Preller focuses on at least for Hand and if Mckenzie is not in play a bundle of some lower level quality might get Yates.

Atlanta has come up earlier ... Riley would be a good get for 3B but unless Atlanta finds a better future 3B option they will likely try to buy with a ton of quality SP prospects most in A+ and above. Remember there will be (are) other RP options on the market from teams that will want to bolster their pitching prospects.

StL ... their farm system does not excite me so hard to see Preller moving Yates or Hand to them ... but maybe Stammen. They have a catching prospect ... Knizner ... who just got promoted to AAA after hitting over .300 in AA. StL sits with Molina and Kelly (at top defensive catcher and Molina understudy) so minimal need for another catching prospect to sit in AAA for the next few years. Maybe Stammen can be a key in getting Knizner ... Padres need a second catcher behind Hedges ... Ellis is a FA and Lopez is just a journeyman. A battle between Knizner and Allen for that back-up role would be goodl

Would not exclude the option of the Padres bundling a RP with prospect or some ML players to get the better prospect in return. Think they want one top line prospect (not volume) and would be willing to maneuver to get that . E.G. Cleveland now needs some OF help (injuries, under performance) and next season gets hit with some FA (Brantley / Chisenhall) and their better prospects for the OF have not developed ... maybe bundle one of the RP with OF help (Jankowski or Renfroe or Reyes) might just tip the scales for the better Cleveland prospect to be included. Could say the same for Atlanta since Markakis is a OLD FA after the season and could depart.

Untold number of scenarios that might or might not work. However, I would not trade any of the Padre RP just to get them off the roster or take "the best offer available" if that offer is a bundle of non-impact prospect potential.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 12, 2018, 5:45 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2018, 10:31 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 8, 2018, 5:46 pm

What would it take included with Ross to get Austin Riley from the Braves?

I think they like Camargo and they need a Starter and Riley could be our 3B for some time.

Id be fine giving them Ross and just about anyone not in our top 10.....or Ross/Spangy plus a prospect.

Anyone else think this is a good idea?

 

Good idea on getting Riley but not seeing immediately the ability to match up the moving parts between teams.

On the Braves side ... they apparently are primarily looking for a RP and secondarily a SP now. However, if they are also looking ahead (and they can afford to because at their core they are young with prospects) Markakis is an OLD FA to be and the catching situation is weak then add that from what I have heard they are OK with Camargo but on sole on  him long term (more a super utility type).

Riley (21, in AAA already, #49 on MLB prospect and #3 3B prospect) fits an offensive need going forward (even next year) couple that with their farm system that is good ... but pitcher laden and somewhat short on bats. Riley is their #5 (55 grade) and #8 is Pache (OF with a 55 grade). The rest of their top 10 are all (very good) pitching prospect to support some young arms already arrive. Other than Tatis (which is a non starter) Padres don't really have anything near term offensively on the farm that helps the Braves more than Riley might.

MAYBE a better deal involves Hand or Yates?

As for Ross' trade value (as a two month rental) .... he is not getting much the a casual mention nationally ... would expect he would top out at a decent sleeper prospect in A ball or lower .... sort like the deal for Paddack (hopefully).

Why not Ross “and” Hand or Yates?

Would make sense for the Braves as they have a  Real shot at winning their Division/making playoffs and while Ross is a rental Yates is not.

We have so many good prospects low in the system we could add any number to a deal to improve the return.

Hedges will be our main(Defensive) catcher going forward....add in Austin Allen and that could make a guy like Campusano available to trade.I realize he’s a ways away but I’m sure we could put a package together “if” the Braves are willing to move Riley at all.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2018, 8:06 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 12, 2018, 5:45 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2018, 10:31 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 8, 2018, 5:46 pm

What would it take included with Ross to get Austin Riley from the Braves?

I think they like Camargo and they need a Starter and Riley could be our 3B for some time.

Id be fine giving them Ross and just about anyone not in our top 10.....or Ross/Spangy plus a prospect.

Anyone else think this is a good idea?

 

Good idea on getting Riley but not seeing immediately the ability to match up the moving parts between teams.

On the Braves side ... they apparently are primarily looking for a RP and secondarily a SP now. However, if they are also looking ahead (and they can afford to because at their core they are young with prospects) Markakis is an OLD FA to be and the catching situation is weak then add that from what I have heard they are OK with Camargo but on sole on  him long term (more a super utility type).

Riley (21, in AAA already, #49 on MLB prospect and #3 3B prospect) fits an offensive need going forward (even next year) couple that with their farm system that is good ... but pitcher laden and somewhat short on bats. Riley is their #5 (55 grade) and #8 is Pache (OF with a 55 grade). The rest of their top 10 are all (very good) pitching prospect to support some young arms already arrive. Other than Tatis (which is a non starter) Padres don't really have anything near term offensively on the farm that helps the Braves more than Riley might.

MAYBE a better deal involves Hand or Yates?

As for Ross' trade value (as a two month rental) .... he is not getting much the a casual mention nationally ... would expect he would top out at a decent sleeper prospect in A ball or lower .... sort like the deal for Paddack (hopefully).

Why not Ross “and” Hand or Yates?

Wuld make sense for the Braves as they have. Real shot at winning their Division/making playoffs and while Ross is a rental Yates is not.

We have so many good prospects low in the system we could add any number to a deal to improve the return.

Hedges will be our main(Defensive) catcher going forward....add in Austin Allen and that could make a guy like Campusano available to trade.I realize he’s a ways away but I’m sure we could put a package together “if” the Braves are willing to move Riley at all.

 

Just have no idea about Atlanta's desire to not deal Riley, which could be the biggest issue. Get the feeling that with ton of quality pitching prospects they will be look to teams other than the Padres to get their pitching help. If they would (and assuming the Padres have a favorable view of Riley) both teams have a large cache of quality prospects to balance the deal.

Still a good chance Padres don't deal at all.

Quote from Ryan Payne on July 13, 2018, 1:30 pm

Not dealing at all would be a mistake. There are ways to improve the club that I think you have to take advantage of. Unless the deals are completely underwhelming, I think you have to make some kind of move to enhance the club for the future.

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2018, 2:12 pm

Quote from Ryan Payne on July 13, 2018, 1:30 pm

Not dealing at all would be a mistake. There are ways to improve the club that I think you have to take advantage of. Unless the deals are completely underwhelming, I think you have to make some kind of move to enhance the club for the future.

It is all about the quality of the return ... and on rejected bids we will never really know what package was rejected other than media (or fan) speculation.

My problem with "take what you can get" for quality assets under control is that the offers may be of little long range value to the ML club (and that is a Padre scouting perspective). Except for the FA to be (Ross, Ellis, Galvis) everyone else is low cost and under control ... giving that up ML quality for long shot minor leaguers or prospect that project to a reserve role / #5 starter does not seem worth it with the quality of the Padres farm system. That approach could actually make the organization worse.

Basically for assets like Hand and Yates Preller should be target one top prospect (avoid the other team just flushing it's #$%&  to the Padres). Less than that level of return is probably not worth a deal. Stammen clearly not as much and even less for Ross ... both might be one of those Preller hidden gems in low A / Short Season.

As it stands now Preller is probably over demanding while to buying teams are low balling. Padres don't need to panic and move much lower but their are a lot of contenders that really need RP and one may crack and give Preller something closer to his demands.

I have no problem with Preller holding if the offers are underwhelming and re-engaging teams in the winter or next trade deadline. I want quality or nothing.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 13, 2018, 2:15 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 12, 2018, 5:02 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 12, 2018, 2:57 pm

So one day after the Astros send their Closer to the minor leagues they blow another Save.

You have to believe they are thinking they need a guy like Brad Hand.

They have a guy I’ve always coveted who has no position with the Astros....Tony Kemp.

With no place to play he’s too good to play 2-3 times a week IMO.Anyone think the Stros are calling about our Relievers and if so....what do you think would be a good enough return from them for AJ to pull the trigger?

 

Sort of depends on which Padre RP is targeted by Houston ... Hand or Yates or Stammen.

Houston has some quality pieces but seems to fall off quickly in volume. They will NOT deal Tucker (OF) or Whitley (SP) to anyone for a RP (or maybe for any player). Maybe the most near term intriguing prospect is a LHH OF/1B who just got promoted to AAA ... Yordan Alvarez who just turned 21 last month ... a plus hitter with power but just OK defensively. 1B is clearly not a need but as a LHH OF he might be an interesting alternative to Renfroe (if he does not progress), Reyes (who I don't expect to progress), and Cordero (who know). After that, some nice pieces as pitchers or players far off. Since one corner OF slot is far from settled and other than Hosmer there is a void in LHH support ... maybe as the key return piece.

Kemp I too like (used to like him a lot more when he was a prospect) ... but he will be 27 next season and seems to have settled into a super utility role when he is up (in AAA now) basically 2B/OF ... does not seem with the Padres he would bump Urias or any of the OF. Maybe a secondary piece if the Padres move on from Pirela, Spangenberg, Villanueva.

My thoughts on Kemp.....

He has “settled into a super utility role” because he is on the Astros roster.

He is a second baseman with a young HOF player ahead of him.

I like Urias......But he is in AAA and having an average season.

Certainly not saying he can’t be our 2B for the next 10 seasons.....but I think it’s a mistake to just assume he’s going to be everything we hope him to be.

After all.....who was our last position player we developed to be an all star caliber player for multiple seasons?

 

I get that the past is the past and everything has changed.......but forgive me for being skeptical of “any” prospect until proven different.

My point is don’t discount Kemp as a 2B or as he is right now,a super utility......just because of Urias.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 13, 2018, 2:20 pm

This sort of depends on what you think of the Cleveland prospects but Cleveland has been singled out as the contending team most needy of RP while being financially strapped and not willing to take on more significant money. Hand or Yates makes sense (low cost and control) but probably not enough to pry away a prospect like Mckenzie.

Now tie that to a recent report that the Indians have inquired about Adam Jones since their OF has be under performing / injured. Not likely for Cleveland to go that way with a FA to be under a significant 2018 salary and his offensive / defensive metics are way down (he got old).

Could the Padres enhance a deal of Hand or Yates with someone like Renfroe (still not my favorite) who is low cost / long control. Would fill two Cleveland needs for then next few years and would boost the quality of the return. For now go with Reyes / Jankowski and wait on Cordero for 2019.

Quote from 3fingersplit on July 13, 2018, 5:36 pm

Trading just for the sake of trading is just dumb and some of the best trades are the ones you DON'T make