Quote from Commie on July 3, 2018, 5:15 pm

Agree with you Fenn that CLE would likely not include Bieber, but I think they would do McKenzie, Jones and __________ for Hand and Stammen.  I defer to David if he believes Valera should be the third player in the deal.  Maybe his inclusion causes CLE to balk at Jones being in the deal?  I would try to get them to put C Logan Ice in the trade too.  Just like to have more than less catching depth with some potential in the upper minors versus the dead enders playing in AAA now.

Quote from David Jay on July 4, 2018, 10:21 am

Triston McKenzie is a much, much, much, much better pitcher than Bieber.

Quote from fenn68 on July 4, 2018, 10:55 am

Quote from David Jay on July 4, 2018, 10:21 am

Triston McKenzie is a much, much, much, much better pitcher than Bieber.

I would hedge that comment with McKenzie has much better potential than Bieber but McKenzie is in AA and Bieber is in the starting rotation (and doing well) for Cleveland. Sort of academic in my mind since really doubt Cleveland would deal either one for one of SD RP. They are both good prospects (MLB Top 100).

Cleveland has indicated that they are looking for RP that can be controlled and generally they need to keep payroll under control .... Hand, Yates, and Stammen fit that profile. However, they are not desperate. They are running away with the AL Central and have little chance of securing the best record in the AL for home field advantage ... so safe bet to be in the playoffs as the road team in each series. With other RP options on the market ... not likely to overpay especially since they have some decent depth in their farm system that some team would like to tap into.

More likely if a Cleveland deal emerges ... it is Stammen for someone like Willi Castro (21 year old AA) shortstop which is a position of depth with Cleveland.

I see a better chance of a real desperate team overpaying for Hand or Yates ... one that may miss the playoffs entirely or get relegated to the wild card and a one and done scenario. That creates some incentive to deal. At this point a few of those who have expressed a need for RP: Houston; Atlanta; Washington (have some but apparently want more); and with a month to go ... would not rule out others developing a need.

Side: Ross is the most likely to go as a rental (and very low salary) ... NYY seemed as the likely spot given their need but StL could be a factor given some of their SP woes now and "chasing" both Milw and Chi.

Quote from 3fingersplit on July 4, 2018, 11:59 am

A break in the action.......

Happy 4th of July to everyone !!!

Quote from Cptjack on July 4, 2018, 2:39 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 4, 2018, 10:55 am

Cleveland has indicated that they are looking for RP that can be controlled and generally they need to keep payroll under control .... Hand, Yates, and Stammen fit that profile. However, they are not desperate.

Disagree completely, Indians are financially strapped, aging out, and have poor long term prospects. They need to win now if they want to win at all. Going through the AL isn't going to get easier when the Yankees unleash the moneybags.

Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2018, 7:20 am

Depends on what is meant by desperate .... they will want to make moves (limited by having little money to throw out there) but that does not automatically go to deal TOP prospects ... maybe more of their prospects from "lower levels" of a decent farm system.

Should note that in 2018 in a tough financial situation and older players but starting this winter then with the following winter their payroll likely drops to under $50MM yet they maintain Ramirez and Lindor along with a solid pitching staff. That will allow them to be relevant by some key adds (trade / FA) and their prospects being inserted ... plus as significant is the very little chance they will be severely pushed by KC, Det, CWS, or MINN in the next couple of years. With a 99.4% chance of winning the AL Central (per MLB.com) they can consider strategies that balance 2018 and the 2019-20 races. Of course, part of the debate should be who are their TOP prospects in their mind and do they fit into the Indians future? Would guess McKenzie and Bieber are but the #1 Mejia (bad fielding catcher who can hit and #15 on MLB prospect list) might go for the right price and same for the #5 1B Bradley. We will see but expect that other teams will be willing to offer more for Hand, Yates, or Stammen.

Quote from fenn68 on July 5, 2018, 7:41 am

In the AL the odds on the playoff teams are Boston (99.9%), NYY (99.9%), Houston (99.9%), Cleveland (99.4%), and Seattle (88.0%) with the next team a very remote 8.7% (Oakland). The real trade dynamics from the AL is avoidance of the Wild Card one and done game with a secondary concern of gain the best record for home field advantage in the playoffs. Think that avoidance of the Wild Card will make Boston / NYY and Houston / Seattle motivated to make deals. From a Padre perspective, NYY (starting pitcher) and Houston (relief pitcher) seem the best matches. Seattle and Boston may want to play but they really don't have compelling farm systems ... so less likely.

In the NL there still are nine teams in play (hopefully still at the end of the month) ... so four will miss the playoffs but which ones? That uncertainty of even making the playoffs should make those teams the most motivated to wheel and deal and then layer in avoidance of the wild card by winning the division is still up in the air for everyone. Every team to some degree needs upgrades in relief pitching so potentially a lot of competition resulting in "options" for Preller to make deals. As for Ross, Milw seems to be looking for a starting pitcher and would not be surprised if StL is in play (some injuries and underperformance) while for the moment on the outside of the playoffs looking in. If a team wants a low cost / FA to be Ross is pitching well enough to be that guy. Hamels (reputation aside is not pitching that well and carries a big salary and no trade) and Happ (is pitching well most of the games but is a bit more pricey) are the only two effective alternatives for a team that want someone going well while not getting burden with future years.

Should be interesting in about 3 weeks ... or not.

Quote from hoffy51 on July 6, 2018, 6:30 pm

I think the Asuaje call up is so that they can showcase him for a possible trade. Urias is not far behind and it would be nice if we could get something for Asuaje IMHO.

Quote from 84padres on July 7, 2018, 9:41 pm

Well there goes any trade value for Ross. He has been wearing down and pitching poorly lately