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Trade Possibilities
#101 · June 28, 2018, 8:16 pm
Quote from dvmin98 on June 28, 2018, 8:11 pmAny GM would be a fool to get Myers. The kid has talent, but just watch his double the other night in Arlington and then watch the one hit by Renfroe the next at bat. Myers hits it and kind of watches to see if it lands fair instead or running. Luckily he hit it right on the line and made it to second easily. Then watch Renfroe. As soon as he hits it, he books towards first. I was yelling at Myers at the game to run. He just doesn't get it. Sad.
All GMs are fools for the right price and when under pressure.
#102 · June 28, 2018, 8:17 pm
Praying for fools
#103 · June 29, 2018, 7:23 am
At the half way point the potential "buyers" are beginning to separate from the pack.
AL is down to 5 teams for 5 playoff spots but there is still a major incentive to avoid the Wild Card play-in and to get home field advantage by winning their Division. NYY - Boston and Houston - Seattle all have a legit chance to win their Division with the loser relegated to the Wild Card ... incentive to deal to get the advantage. Cleveland looks to be a lock to with the AL Central but might want to push for a better record in an effort to get a home field advantage in a series.
NL is a totally different story with 9 teams (ATL, MILW, AZ, CHI, PHIL, LAD, STL, WASH, SF) with legit shots for division titles, wild card, OR missing the playoffs entirely. Should have more motivation to deal here. Add that their records are not all that different, so jockeying for the "best record" is still an open season.
On the flip side, 14 buyers means 16 sellers ... more available trade chips arguably lowering the return on "similar" assets.
SP (at least currently effective SP) potentially on the market seems very limited and Ross being a FA after the season and with a really low contract should yield a better return that one might expect. On the other hand, probably a lot of RP (although the demand should be high) muting the potential returns.
#104 · July 1, 2018, 11:09 am
A thought about what might be a potential "return" in any trade (especially the minor ones) IF the MLB rules allow making deals for 2019-20 international bonus slot money.
Padres love the international market and have for this cycle and last been limited to the $300K cap per player due to the 2015 extravaganza. In the 2019-20 that cap is gone and the only limit is the total allocation under the new CBA BUT as I recall a team can trade for more international bonus money allocation (up to 60% more) ... guessing that would be about $3MM more to the Padres (number not fixed at this time). Given the Padres history it could seem better in terms of securing a high upside prospect to get the extra international money for a more robust signing(s) than a mid-level prospect to get tucked into a current strong farm system.
For me the key unknown is whether deals now can include 2019-20 international bonus allocations.
#105 · July 3, 2018, 7:00 am
Interesting article today on CBSsports.
It suggests that SD and CLE trade with each other. CLE gets both Hand and Yates. SD gets Bieber(not Justin, thank God), Quentin Holmes, and Nolan Jones. Since I am do not read a lot on others teams prospects, is this light for the return to SD? Seems to be to me. Thoughts Fenn, Ramrod, or others that more closely follow other teams MiL players.
#106 · July 3, 2018, 8:33 am
Extremely Light. The latter two would struggle to crack our top 25 and they aren't even putting in a high value headliner.
#107 · July 3, 2018, 8:35 am
Somewhat hard to make the call.
The Indians' prospects first:
Bieber (23, RHP) who was a fast riser and is already in the ML as a starter for Cleveland ... like him but with Cleveland's injuries to SP not sure their motivation to move him. Mid-rotation SP type. (MLB #90) Would step right into the Padres starting rotation.
Jones (20, LHH 3B) who is in A ball. High draft pick with a lot of upside across the board ... like him and probably attainable. (MLB #100). Maybe 3-4 years away from ML.
Holmes (18, OF) in Rookie Ball. 2nd round pick but on pure upside has the plus plus speed and defense and can't hit a lick plus no power. Pure upside gamble that rarely if ever works out (sort of a Tre Carter type). I would pass on his inclusion even as the #3 in the package ... Indians have in my mind better long term prospects in the lower levels if the Padres went that way.
So, would like to add Bieber and Jones but really doubt Cleveland would move Bieber that this point coupled with this seems short for BOTH RP (both have extended control and both are low cost). Do think the Cleveland would be motivated to deal given current injuries and coming FA RP with a "window" of maybe 2 years to win it all. They do have some good depth in prospect so shifting out Bieber for others might be tempting. Hard to tell but Padres might do better dealing each separately.
From a different perspective (and I understand the objective is to get the best prospects regardless of position / level) ... adding a SP when the Padres have a load of SP coming SOON and an A ball 3B who will not impact for years may not help the overall product at the ML level over the next few years when the current prospects arrive.
Now we have no idea about the alternatives developing as Preller talks with every other team ... so maybe something better is there OR holding on one of the RP is better for the team (debatable). Did see a piece by Duquette on projected destinations of top trade candidates (none Padres and he had Hand staying in SD) and generally speaking his projected returns were higher (actually much higher) than I would have expected given the recent value placed on prospects.
#108 · July 3, 2018, 9:22 am
Not so sure the Padres will view this trade period the same way the fans will. Fans do have the tenancy to focus on moving a player (basically tired of that player) and are less analytical about the return ... some of the just get the best you can thinking and make the move.
With a very strong farm system, the Padres may be more interested a return of a more significant quality player than volume of mid-range players and if that is not on the table just not trade. Other than Ross who will be a FA, the other trade chips are low cost / longer term control ... and arguable better than who is in the queue to replace them so why trade them if the return is not compelling. Never know that in the future some team gets desperate and does pony up that quality prospect.
That logic could (and probably will) lead to a stalemate with potential buyers and we see little from the Padres in the trade market this July. Buyers I suspect will look at the "old Padres" and offer a slew of bodies but no top talent and that will not get it done. Considering how the handled Chacin last trade deadline, might not even move Ross as a FA to be if the best offer is not perceived to be of any value down the road.
#109 · July 3, 2018, 11:56 am
Any trade the Padres make with Cleveland would almost certainly include George Valera.
