Forum
Forum Navigation
Trade ideas
#911 · December 7, 2019, 10:38 am
Quote from JasonE135 on December 7, 2019, 12:12 amI expect no more major moves. I don’t think there is any ACE starter out there who would be worth the price AJ would have to pay. FYI, ACE starter is almost the only upgrade we still need.
I only see us giving up a ml quality pitcher if we get one back in a trade. Davies and Joey are our 4 & 5. We will need Quantrill, Bolanos and possibly Margevicious for injury fill-ins just like this year. Teams need 8-10 guys who can start nowadays with how often pitchers get injured. Morejon, Weathers, Cantillo and Lawson are not ready for the big leagues. If we do move a C, I expect it will be Torrens. It would take a trade for real quality to include Hedges, and a major trade to include Campusano. I see many if not most of the RP’s you suggested, Mr. Tatis, being important to this team.
We can trade any spec from Campusano on down, but that only leaves Camp and maybe Morejon that have major trade value. I mean, Pham type quality trade value. Even if we do trade them, what for? After picking up 2 guys, 1 of whom was major, for the OF, I don’t see AJ adding any more there. 3B, SS, 1B? Set. C? He already traded his 2018 closet for the best C prospect in the game at that time. 2B? He has added 2 guys. He could POSSIBLY get another but that would make Profar a waste of resources and a mistake. Everyone knows how easy it is for AJ to admit his mistakes right? BP? AJ made 1 major add to fix really the only hole in a pen that was already excellent. So. Starter is the only real place left to upgrade. AJ already signed Richards last year to possibly be our TOR this year. Paddack and Lamet are excellent and building blocks. He just traded for Davies. He is not looking to move him. Moving/replacing either Davies or Richards would require AJ to not only believe those moves were wrong, but also admit it to the world and everyone in the industry. Not happening. That leaves Joey Lucchesie. He gives us innings and a 4.00 ERA. If we trade for someone like Gray, we would have to give up at least 1 very high quality prospect and probably more. For what? The same numbers as Joey. The only improvement which would be big enough to be worth it would be Strasburg or Cole. Maybe Ryu. They will cost $20-$35 million. They could give us veteran leadership and swagger. I would expect them to give us an ERA .75- 1.5 better than Joey, along with maybe 50 more innings and a ton more strikeouts(not Ryu). Is that worth $35 million more to us on its own? Because if AJ doesn’t think so, then this is essentially the team I expect to see opening day 2020. Maybe a fringe add or 2.
I believe the Padres end up with a TOR or ACE type guy this offseason. Like I’ve said before, I’m content with the rotation as is, but AJP isn’t done. I agree we won’t be trading ML ready pitching without replacing it. Myers being dealt using prospects to open up cash to sign a TOR/ACE could happen, but I think the more likely route is trade. Sale and Kluber are the two targets I have in mind. I didn’t mention Richards in my post because I don’t think he’s a trade candidate. He’s going to slot into the 2020 Padres rotation. I did mention Davies because I imagine AJP is getting calls on him. Davies production, age and the fact he only makes 5 million in 2020 will make him a desired trade piece. Trading Davies wouldn’t mean AJP made a mistake. I really don’t see the logic behind that as players get flipped in trades every year. It’s not the GM admitting a mistake. IMO Davies value has gone up since the Padres acquired him, that’s not a mark against AJP. Jordan Lyles just got 2 years and 16 million. I also fundamentally disagree that Campusano and Morejon are the only cards that hold real value. From the ML roster Hedges, Naylor, Q and Joey all hold significant value. The Padres two bigger trades this offseason used a package of 2 players. I don’t think it’s too difficult to put together a package of 2 players from the remaining trade chips that equal or are > Urias/Lauer and Renfroe/X.
#912 · December 7, 2019, 11:01 am
I think I agree in part that we have more trade chips than Jason stated and that flipping Davies doesn't amount to admission of wrongdoing. Ambivalent as to Price and Kluber. Gray may be trending in a better direction and suits our payroll. Rox dont give him to us though, they will want a lot I fear. I dont see Stras coming here.
So for that reason I propose the following hahahahah (promise last ROX trade comment):
Padres: Gray, Story, Blackmon (dream scenario). Accelerate window to even 2020 and as already expected 2021 for the cost of q potentially feasible net payroll increase. Solve 2B but requires Tatis/Story to move to 2B (reduce instances of injury?). Consolidation. Retain Gore, Campusano, Bolanos, and Abrams. Downside: acquisitions prob cannot be extended, and Patino, TT, and Arias are lost which would be important for 2021+.
ROX: Myers, Patino, Morejon, Trammel, L or Q, Lawson, Weathers, Espinosa, Arias, and Bednar. Would have to shift into rebuild though. Save payroll. They buy a cheap, controllable farm. Serious upside.
Silly I know, but interesting to ponder.
#913 · December 7, 2019, 11:31 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 7, 2019, 9:56 amQuote from onlypads on December 7, 2019, 8:05 amMaybe the Price trade makes sense at this point. Why would they take Myers though? It seems to dramatically offset the benefit of shedding Price unless we include cheap players that can lead t their future moves to shed payroll. Maybe it leads to a Betts future signing and that is enough of a win for them. What would the player cost be? At minimum I would think: Margot (JBJ) + Morejon + C/L (Price and Evoladi). However, wouldn't this be a significant downgrade for them?
Because why would anyone take Price unless they are getting salary relief in the deal?
No one would take Price for free at this point due to his contract.
So either Bos gives him away and pays a portion of his contract to do so...or adds prospects....or takes on another bad contract(Myers) that is less than Prices.
It helps that Bos. Needs a 1B as well.
I just don’t know how much of an upgrade Price is over Lucchesi at this point.
Agree Boston is in a real bind. If they really need to drop $20MM-30MM to get comfortably below the tax threshold ... can't really eat much contract (unless the move more than one big ticket player) ... same with taking a big bad contract in return. The adding of a premium prospect might work but Boston has a lousy farm system devoid of any highly desirable prospects (worth taking a lot of contract).
Now Boston is suggesting based on the current FA market Price should be worth about $18MM/year basing that on Hamels and Wheeler and some assumptions on where Ryu, Keuchel, and Bumgarner appear to be headed. A sellers point of view. So deal Price, eat $13MM and get some prospects gets Boston closer. Not sure the buyers have the same valuation. Boston even then would still need to move another contract like Bradley's at $11MM .. maybe the same concept of eat some to get down to market and get a prospect.
Personally would not have tendered Bradley a FA after the season and although they wanted to deal him ... couldn't find a buyer at his price tag ... his past really not his present as a player. Not having him would make dealing Price at least easier in terms of flexibility to eat contract.
I would stick with Lucchesi over Price given the performance trajectory coupled with the price tag.
#914 · December 7, 2019, 11:44 am
With Washington coming out and saying they can't afford to resign BOTH Strasburg and Rendon (not sure why since their incremental cost in 2020 is just over their expensive 2019 pay and a very expensive Zimmerman at 1B goes FA actually they are lower than SD at this point) ... at least that is their negotiating posture. Still betting Strasburg is the one they sign and Rendon goes to the highest bidder (probably Texas).
WASH is the champ ... if they sign Strasburg they are still very strong as a team but will need 3B/1B/RP/SP ... and they will want to repeat ... so is there a trade opportunity with SD? Maybe something around Myers, France, Quantrill, Perdomo to move contract?
#915 · December 7, 2019, 12:11 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 7, 2019, 9:59 amBlackmon (LHH) is expensive, but far more productive than Myers and has a great bat and knows SP in the division. Rockies need cheap SP. We have that. If we could swap Myers and add 2 or 3 controllable cheap SP pitchers is there any chance the Rockies do it.
Padres: LHH Blackmon (OPS 940)
Blackmon is a product of Coors Field. There is no way ANY team in MLB should trade for that guy. Away from Coors Field his career stats are .261 BA/ .313 OB/ and .430 SLG. Plus, he has two options that are player options, only part of the second option has performance ties to it, so at best you are looking at paying him $74M and at worst $82M through the end of 2023.
Myers and his caereer stats are .251 BA/ .327 OBP / and .436 SLG, and that includes most of his career playing at Pecto. And his contract is $63M and can be done at the end of 2022.
#916 · December 7, 2019, 12:25 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 7, 2019, 11:01 amSo for that reason I propose the following hahahahah (promise last ROX trade comment):
Padres: Gray, Story, Blackmon (dream scenario). Accelerate window to even 2020 and as already expected 2021 for the cost of q potentially feasible net payroll increase. Solve 2B but requires Tatis/Story to move to 2B (reduce instances of injury?). Consolidation. Retain Gore, Campusano, Bolanos, and Abrams. Downside: acquisitions prob cannot be extended, and Patino, TT, and Arias are lost which would be important for 2021+.
ROX: Myers, Patino, Morejon, Trammel, L or Q, Lawson, Weathers, Espinosa, Arias, and Bednar. Would have to shift into rebuild though. Save payroll. They buy a cheap, controllable farm. Serious upside.
Silly I know, but interesting to ponder.
Thats 9 players for two guys that barely hit their weight away from Coors Field, a pitcher that is nothing but promise and getting too close to 30, and over $38M in salary commitments between the 3 for 2020 alone. Even when you subtract Myers salary of $20M, that is an increase of $18M±.
You only control Story and Gray for two years, and horrible Blackmon contract for 4 years, and you have given away half our farm.
And neither Tatis or Story will want to move to 2B and seriously detriment their future earning potential.
#917 · December 7, 2019, 12:45 pm
Wow, the away from Coors field stat is crushing. Yikes. Didn't realize the splits were that bad. He seems to hit pretty well at Petco too so maybe he crushes at two parks where he would spend a lot of time. Joking aside, seeing that I wouldn't give up all of what was initially proposed.
You have to put Gray in context of comparable acquisition cost of similar pitching. Close to 30 is par for the course unless homegrown or ridiculously expensive (specs).
Storey plays defense, hits with power, drives in runs, and has a bat that would improve the team. If Storey's splits are similarly bad I would certainly reduce the package commensurately.
#918 · December 7, 2019, 12:57 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 7, 2019, 12:45 pmStorey plays defense, hits with power, drives in runs, and has a bat that would improve the team. If Storey's splits are similarly bad I would certainly reduce the package commensurately.
I check splits at baseball reference.com. They have salaries and FA time frames and other fun stats to look at on their page.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=storytr01&year=Career&t=b
Here is the link to Story's home away splits. He is in his 2nd year of arb and just getting more and more expensive. There is no way I would trade for him as well.
#919 · December 7, 2019, 1:03 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 7, 2019, 12:45 pmYou have to put Gray in context of comparable acquisition cost of similar pitching. Close to 30 is par for the course unless homegrown or ridiculously expensive (specs).
Gray, he is actually a statistical anomaly where he actually pitches better home than away. With that said, his career numbers are not as good as Davies, he is more money than Davies, and the Rox will want a haul for him. I personally dont think he would crack our rotation the way he is, and not worth the prospects over what Quantrill can give you.
Now, I could be wrong. Although I did think the Pomeranz trade with COL was smart. Gray is good for better than just over a strike out per inning for his career. So maybe he can get better when only pitching in COL once or twice a year. Mainly just because its amazing how much being at elevation can take out of you. So just the ease on his body alone could give him a boost. Just not for what the Rox will want in trade.
#920 · December 7, 2019, 3:24 pm
Kevin Acee of the SD-UT said on his appearance on the Darren Smith Show on Friday that the San Diego Padres are “actively trying to trade” Austin Hedges. In fact, they have not tried to trade him this hard since he reached the majors despite being in trade discussions before, according to Acee.
Hedges is going to make around $3 million in arbitration and that is too much money for a backup catcher who hits .167, which was his batting average last season.
They need “to find a starting catcher because I don’t think that they believe it is Francisco Mejia either.” Acee reported. Their plan from…late last season is 2020, we will have a new starting catcher. That would be Plan A.”
Like I said CONTRERAS or SANCHEZ.. lets Go