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Trade ideas
#881 · December 6, 2019, 9:04 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 6, 2019, 7:49 amI am doubling down on Contreras and Mazara as the next 2 pieces
Probably not Contreras (3 years control and already at $4.5MM) with the Cubs asking for a major return (and they don't need to trade him). I am not convinced he is THAT MUCH of an upgrade over Mejia and Mejia's upside (5 years control at league minimum for the next two seasons).
Both are defensively challenged and dWAR similar around -0.1. Contreras was 24th defensively in MLB among the 30 catchers with > 300 PA. So, not real defensive upgrade.
Mejia does have the offensive upside ... after he started getting regular playing time in the 2nd half his slash line was 305/355/511 ... Contreras 238/280/475. 1/2 season does not define the player but have to consider the gap between the two may not be worth using a ton of trade chips that could be used for more needed upgrades.
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Better odds with Mazara (2 control years but $5.7MM salary) for a slash line in the second half of 2019 of 287/320/529 (and below average defense in RF). However the same issue with what the Rangers would demand as a return vs. the upgrade he provides over Myers - Naylor - Cordero (yes, upgrade is needed). Could the Padres use those trade chips for better?
Naylor (an equally poor defensive option) did slash 269/337/450 in the second half .. still has upside offensively ... with 6 years control at league minimum.
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From the Padres viewpoint ... if they can use their trade chips elsewhere ... the incremental upgrades may not be worth what has to be given up and I expect both teams want ML or ML ready players to help them win now.
#882 · December 6, 2019, 11:27 am
Good analysis on limitations of Contreras & Mazara. Corey Dickerson appears to be out too (?) b/c he's LF only, and Pham has played almost no RF in MLB career. I've always been "meh" on Mazara, but had warmed up to the idea of Contreras as a clearly established MLB bat first C, vs Mejia headed there but questions about being an "everyday" C at 5'10" 180 lbs vs 6'1" 210 Contreras? A 70-75% starter makes Hedges great defense expendable; minor trade out replaced by a 1 yr 35 y.o. 1-1.5 MM 10 yr vet Defense first AJ Ellis type C placeholding for Torrens next year? Saves 1.5 -2 MM on backup C applied to Contreras' $?
The screaming obvious trade possibility is Marte; RH but a significant reverse split guy last 2 years (.808 OPS in '18, .868 OPS last yr!) His ability to hit RHP would be a massive offensive improvement over Margot. But, assuming highly likely that Margot goes back in that trade, we would also (separately) almost certainly have to trade Myers (salary dump) to create the $$ to take on Marte. So that would be 2 RH OF out the door for 1... would open a spot likely in RF.
... If we did this & obtained a 2nd everyday OF who also happened to be RH, I think I would be OK with just letting the young guys compete & timeshare for the 3rd OF spot batting likely 7th-8th? Get a LH bat in lineup regulary vs RHP... need Grisham to get AB somewhere, and wouldn't be platooning with Marte like he would with Margot. There are some weird platoon possibilities vs LHP like Mejia and that 70-80 arm!
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Henry Silvestre
#883 · December 6, 2019, 11:37 am
Dominoes but could see if they moved Myers and Margot but added Marte ... Pham in LF / Marte in RF (both could cover CF if needed) and let Grisham get his initial run in CF as that LHH. While seeing if that works ... Cordero and Trammell are in the minors to replace Grisham if needed or Pham / Marte return to CF and Naylor gets a corner.
Myers ... as always ... is the key.
I suppose a Pham - Marte - Myers OF with Grisham as the 4th OF / LHH could also work and just use Margot + to secure Marte.
I expect more to come and options not yet considered.
#884 · December 6, 2019, 1:30 pm
If they moved both Myers and Margot, then I agree that you line up Pham in LF and Marte in RF. Then you give Grisham at bats against RHP in CF. Then you could look and find RHH CFer that can hit LHP in case Grisham needs help. Maybe that RHH CFer could be Kevin Pillar. Has some pop in the bat, can still go get in it CF, and against LHP his BA is nice at .285 and the OBP is OK at .313. It was a little worse in 2019, but not by much at all. He was non tendered by SF, and should be able to be signed for about the same as Margot IMO.
#885 · December 6, 2019, 2:25 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 11:37 amDominoes but could see if they moved Myers and Margot but added Marte ... Pham in LF / Marte in RF (both could cover CF if needed) and let Grisham get his initial run in CF as that LHH. While seeing if that works ... Cordero and Trammell are in the minors to replace Grisham if needed or Pham / Marte return to CF and Naylor gets a corner.
Myers ... as always ... is the key.
I suppose a Pham - Marte - Myers OF with Grisham as the 4th OF / LHH could also work and just use Margot + to secure Marte.
I expect more to come and options not yet considered.
Unless Fowler/Seidler are really willing to go to 150 MM payroll (in which case we should probably be in on top SP), no practical way to acquire Marte without eliminating similar $ via Myers trade
#886 · December 6, 2019, 3:21 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2019, 2:25 pm
Unless Fowler/Seidler are really willing to go to 150 MM payroll (in which case we should probably be in on top SP), no practical way to acquire Marte without eliminating similar $ via Myers trade
Even if they are willing to go to $150M, there is no way we are getting a top SP for $10M. SD must trade Myers in order to get the payroll room to chase Stras. However, if they are willing to go to $150M, then Marte is in play at that time.
Then, IF they can make a reasonable trade of Myers then maybe you make a Kluber move. Adding Kluber and Marte make a nice finish to the winter IMO.
#887 · December 6, 2019, 4:02 pm
With the moves that AJP has already made, this is how I would finish the offseason. Not going to detail the deals, just the players being moved and the final 26 man roster.
- trade for Marte, Im thinking that Margot might not be needed/wanted by PIT.
- trade for Kluber, Im using Davies to offset Klubers salary and giving CLE a pitcher that will help them stay competative in AL Central.
- trade Myers to TOR, Im thinking a combo of Naylor and Quantrill and others.
- trade Hedges for the payroll room and team chemistry since Hedges doesnt want to be a back up
- sign Lucroy as back up C, guess is about $2M for year.
Starting 8 v RHP is Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth, Hosmer, Mejia, Pham, Grisham, Marte.
Starting Rotation, Kluber, Richards, Luchessi, Paddock, and Lamet.
Bench is Profar, Kinsler, France, Margot, and Lucroy.
Bullpen is Yates, Pomeranz, Munoz, Perdomo, Castillo, Strahm, Guerra, and Baez or Bolanos.
Payroll finishes at $140M±, and if things go well, and before the trade deadline SD is in the hunt, then ownership can decide to pony up for an add if necessary.
#888 · December 6, 2019, 4:15 pm
Not bad, I would change
1. Trade for Haniger v Marte ... commit $8.5 less and get one extra year
2. Trade for Kluber but use Lucchesi and make up the pay difference with the savings from Haniger under Marte
3. Trade Myers using Quantrill, Naylor, plus some other non-essential pieces
4. Trade Hedges for a prospect for payroll space
5. Use Torrens as the back-up and save the $2MM for a back-up. Keep Nick Hundley on speed dial (he lives in SD and is a FA) if a different back-up is needed later.
Payroll is even lower leaving room for trade deadline moves if anywhere near contention.
#889 · December 6, 2019, 4:29 pm
If I send CLE Luchessi, then I see if I can bump up the prospects a touch, and include Kinsler. They get a cheaper back up than Kipnis, and we save some additional cash. Although I do like Luchessi being the only LHSP in our rotation. If we keep Davies over Luchessi, then the entire rotation is RH. Not necessarily a problem, and observation at this point.
I could definitely live with the Haniger or Marte option, and obviously the payroll savings of Haniger is nice.
Torrens could be an option, IMO most of the time the back up C has more dirt in his socks than a rookie/second year player. Hence the Lucroy thought. Plus, Lucroy could play 1B to spell Hosmer v really tough LHP. I would have no problem with Hundley coming back either.
#890 · December 6, 2019, 7:35 pm
IEdwards and Urias are gone and Abrams is not ready yet. Given our window, why not go hard for Whit. In exchange give up anybody below Campusano. Something like Morejon + Quantril + Torrens + Arias (preferably Quiroz and/or Miller)+ Naylor.
Consolidates OF for a need and now offense would appear to be significantly improved.
Why they trade: upside, offers a farm, control, matches projected timeline.
Downside: Cost is high. Redundancy with Profar.