Quote from BoosterSD on December 4, 2019, 8:04 am

I think PIT wont want Arias, as they have some very young players they seem to like up the middle. They need C as well. And if you are including 4 legit prospects and Nix, who is still in our top 30, I dont think you need to include that much money, if any at all.

Mets get Marte, PIT gets Myers, Hedges, Morejon, Quantrill, Ornealas, and Nix with no money, and SD gets Conforto. Then SD signs Dickerson, and your 2020 OF is Dickerson, Grisham/Margot, Conforto/Renfroe.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 8:18 am

Saw a note that suggested that Cleveland is working on potential deals for Kluber. I guess that should rekindle the idea of the Padres being in play.

Kluber was a clear #1 in 2018 and will get $17MM in 2020 and is under a club option for about the same in 2021 ... great bargain IF he is that 2018 pitcher. The risk is that he is 2 years older and BEFORE his broken arm his 2019 performance was worrisome ... was the a precursor of his decline or just a bad start from a still elite arm?

Probably a good gamble ... but at what price? (NO CLEV will not take Myers). Plus other teams are in on him ... include the LAD.

Indians ... who still should be a strong contender in 2020 are going want pieces to help the win now (prospects are secondary pieces). Have to think Renfroe makes sense to help their very weak OF (think Reyes will be DH primarily) and a plus RHRP would fit then support with prosepects. Do think CLEV is a place SD could dump France as the 3rd piece in a deal.

However, the risk is HIGH that he will not return to 2018 form ... so with a $17MM price tag .... need some control against over pay for his past not his future.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 4, 2019, 8:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 8:18 am

Saw a note that suggested that Cleveland is working on potential deals for Kluber. I guess that should rekindle the idea of the Padres being in play.

Kluber was a clear #1 in 2018 and will get $17MM in 2020 and is under a club option for about the same in 2021 ... great bargain IF he is that 2018 pitcher. The risk is that he is 2 years older and BEFORE his broken arm his 2019 performance was worrisome ... was the a precursor of his decline or just a bad start from a still elite arm?

Probably a good gamble ... but at what price? (NO CLEV will not take Myers). Plus other teams are in on him ... include the LAD.

Indians ... who still should be a strong contender in 2020 are going want pieces to help the win now (prospects are secondary pieces). Have to think Renfroe makes sense to help their very weak OF (think Reyes will be DH primarily) and a plus RHRP would fit then support with prosepects. Do think CLEV is a place SD could dump France as the 3rd piece in a deal.

However, the risk is HIGH that he will not return to 2018 form ... so with a $17MM price tag .... need some control against over pay for his past not his future.

Kubler for Joey + Renfroe + Arias is a steep gamble I am willing to make

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 8:29 am

Jason, Fenn, Henry et al:   Take me with a grain of salt, b/c I'd love to improve the OF... it's basically one of 2 "needs" left.  And you know I'm fixated on TOR SP, so I'm just frustrated b/c I feel like Pads are getting close to fielding a very complete team with an entirely reasonable MLB payroll, but owners may not allow the payroll needed to do it... see "Priorities" Thread....

I feel like there is a fundamental "big picture" flaw in the approach of targeting Ex. Conforto but not a TOR SP (I'm assuming you guys mean none of the top 5 available FA):   Most on this board are saying Pads goal for 2020 is to reach .500, but playoff contention not realistic.  If that is true, WHY should we invest so heavily by TRADE in not cheap 2 year control OF like Conforto or Marte?

Basically expending trade assets for 1 "possible" year of contention in 2021 that will be extremely reliant on young SP (assuming Richards leaves in FA, and a way less attractive pool of FA SP next year)... at least 1 of whom would have been traded in all 3 of your proposals, but presumably not replaced externally by an upgrade?

I get the logic behind a trade for a longer control guy like Merrifield, but creating other roster holes to sign a good everyday OF for only 2 years without addressing the need for SP makes no sense to me?

Quote from BoosterSD on December 4, 2019, 8:30 am

I would take that gamble to be honest. I look at the broken arm as one less season on the arm, so if you are a glass half full guy, that can be looked at as a positive. Still like the guy as a mentor, and if Wheeler is going to get 6/135, then IMO Kluber is well worth the $17M.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 4, 2019, 8:46 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 8:29 am

Jason, Fenn, Henry et al:   Take me with a grain of salt, b/c I'd love to improve the OF... it's basically one of 2 "needs" left.  And you know I'm fixated on TOR SP, so I'm just frustrated b/c I feel like Pads are getting close to fielding a very complete team with an entirely reasonable MLB payroll, but owners may not allow the payroll needed to do it... see "Priorities" Thread....

I feel like there is a fundamental top down flaw in the approach of targeting Ex. Conforto but not a TOR SP (I'm assuming you guys mean none of the top 5 available FA):   Most on this board are saying Pads goal for 2020 is to reach .500 but playoff contention not realistic.  If that is true, WHY should we invest so heavily by TRADE in not cheap 2 year control OF like Conforto or Marte?

Basically expending trade assets for 1 "possible" year of contention in 2021 that will be extremely reliant on young SP (assuming Richards leaves in FA)... at least 1 SP of whom would have been traded in all 3 of your proposals, but presumably not replaced externally by an upgrade?

I get the logic behind a trade for a longer control guy like Merrifield, but creating other roster holes to sign a good everyday OF without addressing the need for SP makes no sense to me?

If I was AJ arm I would

1) Get Contreras from Cubs +$5mil proj arb

2) Go for Broke on Strasburg (price is steep but he blows the window WIDE OPEN.. 5/175 structure deal so $10 mil for 2020

3) Get that lefty bat (low cost $$ guy) Mazara/Comforto type $5 mil

4) do whatever I need to do to get Myers entire deal off (or at least $45 mil of it..kicking in $15)

#1 #3 and #4 would require a lot.. So to get all 3 done say we need 10 players/specs.(obviously + Myers). So use Joey + Cantillo + Weathers + Quantrill + Morejon + Naylor + France + Mejia + Arias + Ornelas (or their equivalent)

Payroll added $20 mil ..Payroll dumped $20 mil roughly +/- a few mil

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 9:00 am

Given the situation of a need to start winning now from ownership ... Preller probably has to work both angles some “2 year substantial upgrades” along with longer term options which most like is retaining their elite prospects and hoping for development.

Just not that many realistic (affordable) long term upgrades in play ... and a lot of teams jacking up the price. Plus when your best prospects are potentially elite SP (Gore, Patino) not sure they chase Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler. Probably would prefer the big OF upgrade longer term ... they just don’t exist.

So, if they believe with the maturity of the internal pieces 2021 has real potential for playoff contention ... getting a plus player now on a 2 year deal sets that table. Waiting until next winter may not have the same options.

For me if the Padres are not giving up their top prospects for short term (2 year) upgrades ... that can work.

It is always the “price” to pay that is critical. Think the FA are going to be over the top in AAV and length. So taking the short route (2 years) is good transition to the next prospect wave. So, the negotiation is can they get deals done for the good, ML useful, but not elite prospects / ML players? Which players are in that category is always debatable but Lucchesi, Quantrill, Bolanos, Renfroe, Margot should (could) have traction now while the Morejon, Lawson, Olivares, Miller might from the prospect ranks.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 9:34 am

I kind of discounted all the Merrifield trade talk as focusing on a need down the list pre-Urias trade...

But am liking the idea the more I think about it:  The key to me is the 4 year control being extremely affordable is worth the age risk, and allows significant assets to go out the door; saying Merrifield would be part of the team you're planning to contend with.  The Profar trade would even make more sense if his salary offset by Garcia's 1.5 MM leaving?

•  X. Edwards as 2B of future
• significant SP prospect:  at least Morejon, but IF we sign a TOR SP I think I'd be willing to include Patino.
• significant RP/SP:  Strahm or Baez
• Greg Garcia (or Profar + some $) as backfill

Seems strong but fair to me... don't see many other teams that could top this.  What do you guys think?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 10:06 am

So, if they believe with the maturity of the internal pieces 2021 has real potential for playoff contention ... getting a plus player now on a 2 year deal sets that table. Waiting until next winter may not have the same options.

I would argue this is most true with SP...

Hosmer's big deal was (at least) 2 years early... but despite all the criticism, Preller foresaw lack of LH options on our roster that year & next.  Imagine how bad Pads would have been last year vs RHP WITHOUT Hosmer!   Yes, I get it "doesn't matter" b/c we sucked anyway, but the larger overriding point is what you said above:  You can't suddenly wave a magic wand & have all the pieces on your roster magically appear at the exact moment you're "ready" to contend... some of it has to be built in advance!

Machado's big deal was (at least) 1 year early... Pads could have waited & hoped to possibly sign Rendon or Josh Donaldson, but those were highly uncertain, so they went for it with limited # of suitors at his price point.

I would argue the FA SP market this year... 2 elite ACE's both with So. Cal roots, statcast darling Wheeler price rising daily looking like relative value, Only 30 yr old Madison Bumgarner (So. Cal) the 4th best option, with Cy Young runner up Ryu the 5th best option.... simply is not going to exist next year.   Signing the FA SP even at the expense of another need (like OF or better 2B or C) "unlocks" a young SP to help free up the $ needed to make the signing by making a Myers trade more attractive/possible...

...The market for FA SP is great, the market for FA OF is not.  I'd rather see Pads make the SP deal a "year early" (2020 is the season they MOST need a guy to step in as #1 SP & IP) than not have near the same quality options available when they are finally "ready" to contend!