Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2019, 9:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 3, 2019, 8:06 am

Speaking of KC...

 

Danny Dufy + Kennedy

FOR

Myers + Naylor + France + Morejon + Cantillo and Arias

 

Further strengthen the BP, add another solid SP (frees up Joey for a trade for an OF) cant have enough P and Myers goes back to roots...

The money is close, about $47.25M in Duffy and Kennedy, versus the $63-68.5M for Myers. Taking those contracts would make Myers about $6-7M a year, about right for his production at this time. I think this could be the start of a deal; however, I dont think the pieces going back to KC are right. I think they need both SP and RP, and probably more help in the OF than IF, and DH is taken by Soler. I dont think Arias would interest them with Mondesi and Lopez fairly young and controllable.

My guess would be Myers, Luchessi, Morejon, Castillo, and Oliveras or Ona for Duffy and Kennedy.

Even if we did that deal, that puts SD at $143M± in payroll for 2020. Not leaving much room, if any, for additional moves, unless you can move Duffy or Kennedy or Kinsler. After 2020 season, Kinsler, Oliveras, Kennedy, and Profar are all FAs or off the books, and that is about $34M available for 2021.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2019, 9:37 am

How about this scenario with KC instead. Instead of sending Myers to KC, what about sending Hosmer, and SD could put Myers back at 1B? Hosmer would probably waive his no trade to go back to KC. KC doesnt have a great option at 1B, and then we could sign Dickerson for LF. And we could hope that a move back to 1B and not playing for Green revitalizes Myers.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2019, 10:35 am

I wonder, with SD needing a player like Marte. And PIT going into what seems like a rebuild versus a retool, if there is a way to both get Marte and rid ourselves of Myers at the same time.

PIT is notoriously cheap, and in a bad situation with the off field issues of Felipe Vazquez, and looks bad in the Archer trade.

We have talked about what it would take player wise to get Marte. But I wonder if PIT would take Myers in return SD could take Archer and Vazquez which in his situation is basically dead money since he is going to be gone for a long time. Plus the add of Myers would allow PIT to also add additional prospects by trading Josh Bell, which would be a very good haul.

My thoughts are on top of the 3-4 prospects it would take to get Marte, that SD would send Davies for Archer, saving PIT $5M this season. Vazquez is owed $14.35M between 2020, 2021, and a 2022 buyout. We would then have to send a couple of more prospects to finish off setting the Myers money.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2019, 10:44 am

Think we be trying too hard to move Myers’ contract. Taking on different bad contracts is not a solution and “overpaying” with prospects may actually hurt the future ... especially if with the payroll space they sign a dud.

Unless it is a reasonable out ... I could live with seeing if Myers can improve (at least a little) under Tingler. Not as though the Padres have a great set of OF options. Next winter he will be owed only $41MM ... that much easier to move.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2019, 11:54 am

Seems a legit CF is perceived to be in top demand ... making Marte (PITT) an expensive trade piece. Apparently that has caught MILW’s attention and may be making Cain available although his skills have eroded and comes with a big contract. Actually in 2019, Cain’s WAR / wRC+ were similar to Margot’s. Along the same lines, Boston tendered Bradley (way over paid at $11MM) with the idea they can still trade him in this CF market.

So, should we conclude that Margot’s trade value is a lot higher that most have thought?Problem Padres have little for CF to RELY on for 2020.

Back to PITT ... not into spending money (although their payroll is getting very low) and Marte will be due $11.5 and $12.5 over the next two seasons.

Could the Padres get their CF in Marte (and his contract) with a deal based on Margot plus?

Marte produced a 3.0 WAR in 2019 (2 control years) ... Margot produced a 1.6 WAR (3 control years and a low $2.1MM arb cost). How would the Padres add to make up the WAR difference (knowing they are also giving some salary relief for PITT):

Quantrill (6 years control) with upside delivered a 1.3 WAR which sort of levels out the WAR but probably does not really cover the proven Marte v unproven Quantrill question ... so add a second upside prospect like Bolanos or Torrens or the like. Keep in mind that Margot in a world in short supply of legit CF probably could be flipped by PITT at some point for more value.

Marte may not be the best defensive CF these days but may be the best option on the market.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2019, 12:02 pm

I think we're all underestimating how relatively easy it will be to move Myers' contract by attaching an asset.

Myers' direct competitors (RH OF) in FA are:  Castellanos & especially Ozuna.  MLBTR is predicting 14.5 - 15 MM AAV for 4 & 3 yrs respectively.  Castellanos is 1+ yr younger, clearly better offensively, but a terrible defender everywhere.  Really needs to be on an AL team getting AB @ DH.  Ozuna is 1 month older & the best "comp".   MLBR describes him as "arm limited to LF, where he grades as above average".  High in Stolen bases last 5 years was: 3 until he 'broke out' last year with 12.  He had an All Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove season... 3 years ago.  Myers is almost ludicrously inconsistent offensively, but when on can be a potent team-carrying offensive force.  Definitely more athletic & versatile than the other 2.

So you are a GM.  Which of these 2 options do you prefer at 3/45 @ 15 MM each year:

• Ozuna, who has a Q.O. attached so will cost you a significant draft pick/s & more importantly significant $ of your draft pool
• Myers, with no Q.O. PLUS Adrian Morejon or Joey Lucchesi or Cal Quantrill

Myers < Ozuna, but not by a young cheap control 4-6 years SP plus 10-20% of next season's draft pool $, is he?

Remember, attaching the asset (Pads #6-10 best SP in '20 & '21 by production/potential if we sign one of the top 5 FA SP) creates the $ to sign the SP who is higher up the pecking order; can almost think of it as a trade.  It's also interesting & flexible enough that it will likely attract potential trade partners that Myers alone (for less $ of course) wouldn't.  I would NOT do this deal to "just free up $", or even to sign a 'big' OF instead of a TOR SP.  IMO that would weaken 2020 & future teams too much by over-reliance on elite SP prospect/s that are MLB 'babies'.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on December 3, 2019, 8:52 pm

I don’t think we can afford a TOR starter in FA, and I don’t think we can get a true TOR in a trade. So I believe we should just concentrate on improving our offense this offseason.

We have several pieces the Mets could really use and they seem to be willing to trade Conforto this year. They primarily need a 5th starter. They could also use a minor league backup starter to step in when a starter gets injured. Besides that, they could use a CF and possibly a RF to replace Conforto, both of which they would want to be RHH. They will want anyone they get to be ML ready because they want to compete this year. They also have essentially zero money to spend because they are right against the cap and their ownership will not go over it. We could fill essentially all of their needs with cheap players.

We could package a few of several pieces. For a 5th starter we could give them Lucchesie or Quantrill. I am sure they would want both but I know we wouldn’t do that. We could give them Bolanos as their backup starter in case of injury. Or we could give them Renfroe to replace Conforto. He plays excellent defense and has big right-handed power, both of which they need. They have also shown interest in Margot. We could give them any 2, maybe even 3. They also need relievers.

The point is, the Mets have several needs, cannot afford to spend money, and have extra LHH corner OF. We can solve their problems with cheap, reasonably high upside solutions. Their fans would hate it but it would truly improve their team.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 5:25 am

I see a clear match with the METS on Conforto.

Conforto who is a LHH, played full time, and had about a 3.6 WAR ... but not a very good fielder. He is under control for 2 years and is expected to get around $9,5MM for 2020. He does fit the Padres need.

On the METS side, clearing most of that $9.5MM will have some value. However, I do think a CF would be their top priority (apparently in on Marte but don’t have the pieces plus Marte carries an $11.5MM salary).

Margot .... legit RHH CF who hits better AWAY from PETCO with 3 years control, plus

Lucchesi ... 4 years control should get very close

Combined they have about and equal WAR with Conforto in 2019 but have more control and combined are about only $3MM saving the METS money. At that point, might need to add more of a fringe player / prospect ... maybe a RP such as Reyes.

The “issue” for the Padres would be a hole in CF (not comfortable committing to Grisham or Trammell for 2020. So, maybe the Padres then go hard for Marte with Renfroe and prospects. Might want to do the Marte deal first.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 4, 2019, 6:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 5:25 am

I see a clear match with the METS on Conforto.

Conforto who is a LHH, played full time, and had about a 3.6 WAR ... but not a very good fielder. He is under control for 2 years and is expected to get around $9,5MM for 2020. He does fit the Padres need.

On the METS side, clearing most of that $9.5MM will have some value. However, I do think a CF would be their top priority (apparently in on Marte but don’t have the pieces plus Marte carries an $11.5MM salary).

Margot .... legit RHH CF who hits better AWAY from PETCO with 3 years control, plus

Lucchesi ... 4 years control should get very close

Combined they have about and equal WAR with Conforto in 2019 but have more control and combined are about only $3MM saving the METS money. At that point, might need to add more of a fringe player / prospect ... maybe a RP such as Reyes.

The “issue” for the Padres would be a hole in CF (not comfortable committing to Grisham or Trammell for 2020. So, maybe the Padres then go hard for Marte with Renfroe and prospects. Might want to do the Marte deal first.

Easy solve here

Mets get Marte

Pirates get Myers + Morejon + Arias + Quantrill + Ornelas + Nix + $15 mil

Padres get net ($5 mil savings in 2020,21 and $20 mil savings in 22) AND Comforto

 

Padres