Quote from BoosterSD on November 26, 2019, 7:30 pm

That would be the key, still ridding ourselves of Myers contract. I keep an excel spreadsheet, and each time someone suggests a fairly reasonable trade, I cut and paste the new players to see how much SD would have left to spend on other needs.

So with the proposed trade for Sale, I have SD at $138M±, before trying to rid themselves of Myers contract. So that would leave us about $2M for an OF upgrade. If we can trade Myers, then, depending on how much we can ship out, then we could have up to $24M± to upgrade with and stay under the $140M plateau.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 26, 2019, 10:18 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 26, 2019, 7:30 pm

That would be the key, still ridding ourselves of Myers contract. I keep an excel spreadsheet, and each time someone suggests a fairly reasonable trade, I cut and paste the new players to see how much SD would have left to spend on other needs.

So with the proposed trade for Sale, I have SD at $138M±, before trying to rid themselves of Myers contract. So that would leave us about $2M for an OF upgrade. If we can trade Myers, then, depending on how much we can ship out, then we could have up to $24M± to upgrade with and stay under the $140M plateau.

Exactly right.  That's why I threw Kinsler in to the deal.  His "real" $3.75 MM this year is an insignificant amount to the Red Sox if they're "saving"  20 MM "real $ on Sale, not to mention most of rest of his contract (plus their total payroll is so much higher than ours).

But the 3.75 MM "real" $ is significant to the Pads.  I get 135 MM subtracting Kinsler $.  I believe -but don't know -that Myers alone could be traded to save the same amount in AAV as Corey Dickerson is projected to get (7.5 - 8 MM AAV).   Leaves only 5 MM to spend; maybe a RP & Japanese LH OF Agiyama? ... live with C & 2B we have?  Could increase $ available;by "selling" an asset/s in a Myers trade purely for $; but have to have something more valuable to spend the $ on!  BTW Both G. Richards & Sale have some significant incentives in their contracts.

There's a significant chance we trade a C, but not as sold on dumping Hedges defensive prowess as many on this board.   I don't see any other big $ saving moves...  so, yes, Sale acquistion would be the big move of the offseason...  LOVE that his "real" salary does not increase into 2021, so Garret Richards $ this year isn't already "spent" next year on a raise, as it would be with most of the elite FA SP's due to Pads' payroll constraints this year.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2019, 5:34 am

In 2021, you would have the money from both Oliveras and Richards gone, and that is $17M between the two of them. So you would have that money to use towards arb bumps and signing players as well. So if you believe as Fenn does, and that the goal for 2020 is more towards a slightly better than .500 record than playoff contention, you then have about $17M towards a final player to add for that true open window for the playoff chase of 2021 and beyond.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2019, 6:08 am

I still think that TOR seems like a good trade partner to try and rid ourselves of Myers. I think there are one of two ways that SD can get this done. According to MLBTR TOR is looking for SP, a 1B, and OF help in the form or either a corner spot or center fielder.

1. A trade built around the swap of Myers and Grichuk. Both have under performed their contracts, but with Grichuk as probably the better option for CF over Myers and about $20M cheaper saves SD money. Saving approx $7M in 2020, and about $10-12M in 21,22, and 23. Players going to TOR would be less costly. Maybe Myers and Naylor or Margot for Grichuk. Might be Margot since they are looking for CF help and Myers could go back to 1B. This would allow us to sign Dickerson and have an OF of Dickerson, Grichuk, and Renfroe.

2. A trade built around the swap of Myers and Gurriel Jr. He is more a super utility player, but only owed about $15M through the 2023 season, so the players going to TOR would have to be more substantial. Maybe Myers, Naylor, and Quantril for Gurriel. Might have to add in maybe a Bolanos or Lawson as well in this package. This would give us about $18M for this offseason, and allow us to sign Dickerson and Akiyama. And have an OF of Dickerson, Margot, and Renfroe with Gurriel and Akiyama for bench support. Plus, then we would still have the prospects and salary room to chase a trade for Marte or Conforto, and improve the OF that way as well.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 27, 2019, 6:18 am

Just heard from an Inside source that AJP could pull off a significant move BEFORE we eat Turkey.. Stay tuned for an early Thanksgiving announcement...

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2019, 6:42 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2019, 5:34 am

In 2021, you would have the money from both Oliveras and Richards gone, and that is $17M between the two of them. So you would have that money to use towards arb bumps and signing players as well. So if you believe as Fenn does, and that the goal for 2020 is more towards a slightly better than .500 record than playoff contention, you then have about $17M towards a final player to add for that true open window for the playoff chase of 2021 and beyond.

Always have to look cash flow and multi-year impact and the team has to strategize their ability to “pay now” using “next year’s savings”.

If they consider Richards (-8.5), Yates (-6.3), Kinsler (-3.8), and Olivera (-8.5) .... the Padres will open up $27MM for 2021.

I am guessing Arbitration increases assuming everyone is still around will be in the $7-10MM range.  So net, maybe there is a opportunity for about $17-20MM in 2021 to neutralize an increase in 2020.

In 2020 the expected arb levels are led by Renfroe (3.8), Hedges (2.8), Margot (2.3) ... the rest under $2.0MM. So if the Padres moved those three they could pick up an additional $9MM+/- .... which if combined with whatever payroll increase they plan and any flexibility to advance some payroll space from the 2021 drops ... could get support some quality upgrades.

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2019, 7:01 am

Side point on Myers contract status ... this may only be significant in a Boston deal .... although his cash out is $20MM his  cost against the luxury tax threshold is “only” $13.8MM since AAV is the measure.

IF the luxury tax seems to be the issue for Boston (not cash) ... adds some “value” in accepting Myers.

=============

TOR could be a landing spot for Myers since they seem to have the payroll flexibility. I would stay away from Grichuk ($40MM/4 years) who may not even provide the value of either Myers or Renfroe. Low BA / Low OBP ... sort of the kind of player the Padres should move away from keeping especially since they have Renfroe.

Gurriel Jr. would cost a fortune in prospects since he is very good / low cost / long control (if he is even available) then adding Myers to the deal just means more (better prospect) would have to be included.

I stick to my idea of that the best strategy to move Myers is to NOT ask for any return (maybe a low A type player) and then add a bundle of good (but not blue chip) prospects depending on how much contract is moved. Focus should be on clearing salary space to be used on upgrade adds.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 27, 2019, 7:26 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2019, 7:01 am

Side point on Myers contract status ... this may only be significant in a Boston deal .... although his cash out is $20MM his  cost against the luxury tax threshold is “only” $13.8MM since AAV is the measure.

IF the luxury tax seems to be the issue for Boston (not cash) ... adds some “value” in accepting Myers.

=============

TOR could be a landing spot for Myers since they seem to have the payroll flexibility. I would stay away from Grichuk ($40MM/4 years) who may not even provide the value of either Myers or Renfroe. Low BA / Low OBP ... sort of the kind of player the Padres should move away from keeping especially since they have Renfroe.

Gurriel Jr. would cost a fortune in prospects since he is very good / low cost / long control (if he is even available) then adding Myers to the deal just means more (better prospect) would have to be included.

I stick to my idea of that the best strategy to move Myers is to NOT ask for any return (maybe a low A type player) and then add a bundle of good (but not blue chip) prospects depending on how much contract is moved. Focus should be on clearing salary space to be used on upgrade adds.

I was just responding how the AAV thing didn't sound right, when saw it myself:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/

Interesting, and would make Myers "easier" for a large payroll team approaching the luxury tax threshold to take him in a trade.

I assume the AAV would be split proportionally if Pads ate some of his remaining contract.

Also, Sale's AAV is 25.666 (not 30) due to the decrease in salary built in in future.  Same true for Eric Hosmer.

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2019, 8:08 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 27, 2019, 6:18 am

Just heard from an Inside source that AJP could pull off a significant move BEFORE we eat Turkey.. Stay tuned for an early Thanksgiving announcement...

WE HAVE GOT A WINNER!

10:03am: Second baseman Luis Urias is going to the Brewers, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). There are also some hurlers changing hands, with righty Zach Davies going to San Diego and southpaw Eric Lauer headed to Milwaukee, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

9:57am: The Padres have struck a deal with the Brewers to acquire outfielder Trent Grisham, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). The return isn’t known.