Quote from Commie on November 26, 2019, 12:37 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 25, 2019, 6:50 pm

Quote from Commie on November 25, 2019, 5:30 pm

Would any who are really "under the radar" be an upgrade? I bet if you gave any GM a choice of any of those guys vs Margot, its Manny every time. Even as a platoon, why would they give those guys more ABs than Manny?

As a depth acquisition I'd be all for any of them. Just thought the idea was to get a player who can upgrade the position substantially.  Most UR guy I can think of would be Mallex, but he's not really UR.  JBJ continues to look like perfect fit.  With he and Mallex the odds of a good year in a semi starting role are way better than fringe guys mentioned.

Vs. RHP=Mallex Smith- .213/.283/.331

Manuel Margot-.200/.260/.359

They both hit LHP better so no platoon advantage. Defense is comparable. Margot has more power, Smith more speed. No point in trading for him.

JBJ is performing well below his $11.5 million salary. His defense is slipping and his offense will be almost as bad as Margot. We don't need to spend $11.5 million and trade players to get just a small upgrade.

B-ref has Smith at .259/.332/.376 vs RHP career.  At age 26, with control remaining and only one season removed from a very solid year he is a solid pickup to bide time for Trammel to sink or swim.   Just need to see if they can match up with SEA.

On JBJ, of course they aren't going to take on the full salary.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 26, 2019, 2:33 pm

FA signings aside, I think you have to realistically try to match up your assets with the short and long term situation of the potential trade partners.  We have a trade history with both Boston and Cleveland and both have some work to do this season.  Well-documented salary dump needed by Boston but hamstrung by injured high cost pitchers and Betts pending FA.  Cleveland is a team whose window of opportunity has passed and now must re-tool for the future.  Both these teams need what the Padres have and could move some players valuable to the Padres in the short run.  With Boston, it is how desperate are both sides - are the Padres so desperate to get rid of Myers contract that they would tie themselves to a SP that may not even pitch 100 innings next year and from then on be a 30 M+ albatross on salary.  Myers actually could do quite well in Boston given the short porch and at least power-wise match Betts.  It would take a lot of contortions to make that kind of trade work - something like giving up our current OF for theirs and ensuring Betts signs an extension.  That would max us out taking on Sale or Price as part of a huge multi-player trade.

On the other hand, I still like the idea of Kluber as the TOR starter.  Relatively cheap both this year and next and has just a 1M buy-out team option for next year if things go south.  Cleveland is looking for young controllable pitchers and position players and we have them.  If we fan on Strasburg and/or Wheeler/Ryu/Bumgardner, then Kluber should be the man.

I think there are creative ways to dump all or part of Myers salary and some teams may actually see value in his power/speed combo despite the strikeouts and pr0longed slumps.  When he is hot, he can be a force and we saw that early in the 2019 season.

Given what we have coming from the farm system and the maturation/return to health of current players, we should get that one complete OF and one TOR starter this year and that would make us competitive.   I don't think we should waste our trade chips on lesser talents simply to plug a hole from one side of the plate or the other.  Give me Betts and Kluber and I'll be a happy camper for 2020 but that is not going to be easy to do, especially if Betts won't sign an extension.  Love to have Strasburg, but I think that will be  long-shot.  Isn't Kris Bryant from San Diego - is he a worse OF than Myers?  He hits RHP better than Bradley.   Fallback - Benintendi - but I see Trammell or Abrams as much the same player in a few years.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 26, 2019, 4:55 pm

FENN  Thanks for doing the legwork on this...

It sure seems extremely likely they have to non-tender Bradley to max their savings.  That leaves Boston "needing" to trim payroll an additional 15 MM....  and I agree Betts trade somewhere (not us please) is most likely way to make up the difference.

But Sale's extremely convoluted contract might dovetail REALLY nicely with the Padres situation:

Basically, 50 MM (10 MM/yr) of Sale's contract is deferred into the LUDICROUSLY distant future:  15 YEARS AFTER the year in which it was earned!   BUT this $ counts against payroll for luxury tax purposes IN the year it's earned; i.e. Boston has to count 10 MM against their payroll in 2020 even though they're not going to cut the check to Sale until 2035 = opportunity for Padres!

Pads get:   Sale + Boston pays salary deferrals in 2021-2024 (20-40MM 15+ years from now... see below) + min salary DFA guy/s off  Red Sox 40-man if neccy

Red Sox get:  Morejon + Lauer + Kinsler + Padres pay 10 MM deferral for 2020 + Lesser (>#20) Prospect/s

Red Sox luxury tax crunch gets solved by saving net "26 MM" ("30" Sale - "4" Kinsler + Lauer) in 2020, while getting MLB LHSP to plug in & potential TOR LHSP prospect maybe 1 year away from MLB.   Beef up their very depleted Farm system some.  From  Pads P.O.V the uncertainty below justifies not including Patino, but  having LH Gore allows dealing a guy with Morejon's upside.

Pads get their frontline starter for EITHER:   3/70 MM (20/20/20 + 10 MM due in 2035) IF Sale opts out after 2022.   If he doesn’t, it’s:                                                            5/105 MM (20/20/20/17.5/17.5 + 10 in 2035)  OR:                                                                Club option in 2025:  15 + 5 MM in 2040:    6/125 MM (20/20/20/17.5/17.5/15 +10 + 5 (35/’40)

Padres "only" spend+ 16.25 MM net in 2020.  "Actual" payroll would sit @ 135 MM.  It would become more challenging to include MLB or advanced SP prospect in a Myers trade, but could still be done.   Could just trade Myers alone & sign Corey Dickerson for roughly same AAV/year as the savings:  ~135 MM.  OR add SP or other prospect/s to Myers trade, save 5 MM, now add a RP @ 5 MM: ~135 MM.

“AAV’s”  of 3 x 23.33 MM, or 5 x 21 MM, or 6 x 20.83 MM.  Actually lower b/c deferred $ worth less.  But there are all kinds of escalators & incentives, and more importantly a full No-Trade Clause that kicks in early in 2021.

I would take 3-5 years of Sale @ “really” 20 MM /yr  or less (minus Kinsler)  for Morejon, Lauer & another prospect/s even with the incentives & no-trade ANY DAY over signing Wheeler for 5 years @ 20 MM+ per.

There is a real possibility a 33 year old Sale opts out of a 2/55 deal that is REALLY 2/35 + 20 MM in 15 years…. More like a 2/45 deal.  “Risky”, but if he can get even 2/40 it’s more $ in hand sooner.  Guessing the holdup in my proposal (besides the obvious who Boston gets) might be who takes the deferred $ in 2023 -24 (after the opt out)….

Summary:  Many teams could help solve Boston’s payroll issue by absorbing Sale’s $10 MM deferred in 2020, but Padres deep pool of MLB & near ready SP tough to beat.  Boston won't give Sale away even after a "down" year (look at the peripherals; basically HR up in AL East with a juiced ball).   Totally different semi team-friendly contract to a younger more effective guy.  But the down year & potential opt out & $ crunch give SD leverage.

 

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 26, 2019, 5:30 pm

Sale would be absolutely a fit for us

Quote from Commie on November 26, 2019, 5:32 pm

I'd do that deal.

I know it wasn't part of your post, but others in the discussion keep bringing up Benitendi. The BoSox are not dealing him except in a very favorable return. Why would they dump a solid player who is not expensive given the status of JBJ and Mookie?

Quote from JasonE135 on November 26, 2019, 5:32 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 26, 2019, 4:55 pm

FENN  Thanks for doing the legwork on this...

It sure seems extremely likely they have to non-tender Bradley to max their savings.  That leaves Boston "needing" to trim payroll an additional 15 MM....  and I agree Betts trade somewhere (not us please) is most likely way to make up the difference.

But Sale's extremely convoluted contract might dovetail REALLY nicely with the Padres situation:

Basically, 50 MM (10 MM/yr) of Sale's contract is deferred into the LUDICROUSLY distant future:  15 YEARS AFTER the year in which it was earned!   BUT this $ counts against payroll for luxury tax purposes IN the year it's earned; i.e. Boston has to count 10 MM against their payroll in 2020 even though they're not going to cut the check to Sale until 2035 = opportunity for Padres!

Pads get:   Sale + Boston pays salary deferrals in 2021-2024 (20-40MM 15+ years from now... see below) + min salary DFA guy/s off  Red Sox 40-man if neccy

Red Sox get:  Morejon + Lauer + Kinsler + Padres pay 10 MM deferral for 2020 + Lesser (>#20) Prospect/s

Red Sox luxury tax crunch gets solved by saving net "26 MM" ("30" Sale - "4" Kinsler + Lauer) in 2020, while getting MLB LHSP to plug in & potential TOR LHSP prospect maybe 1 year away from MLB.   Beef up their very depleted Farm system some.  From  Pads P.O.V the uncertainty below justifies not including Patino, but  having LH Gore allows dealing a guy with Morejon's upside.

Pads get their frontline starter for EITHER:   3/70 MM (20/20/20 + 10 MM due in 2035) IF Sale opts out after 2022.   If he doesn’t, it’s:                                                            5/105 MM (20/20/20/17.5/17.5 + 10 in 2035)  OR:                                                                Club option in 2025:  15 + 5 MM in 2040:    6/125 MM (20/20/20/17.5/17.5/15 +10 + 5 (35/’40)

Padres "only" spend+ 16.25 MM net in 2020.  "Actual" payroll would sit @ 135 MM.  It would become more challenging to include MLB or advanced SP prospect in a Myers trade, but could still be done.   Could just trade Myers alone & sign Corey Dickerson for roughly same AAV/year as the savings:  ~135 MM.  OR add SP or other prospect/s to Myers trade, save 5 MM, now add a RP @ 5 MM: ~135 MM.

“AAV’s”  of 3 x 23.33 MM, or 5 x 21 MM, or 6 x 20.83 MM.  Actually lower b/c deferred $ worth less.  But there are all kinds of escalators & incentives, and more importantly a full No-Trade Clause that kicks in early in 2021.

I would take 3-5 years of Sale @ “really” 20 MM /yr  or less (minus Kinsler)  for Morejon, Lauer & another prospect/s even with the incentives & no-trade ANY DAY over signing Wheeler for 5 years @ 20 MM+ per.

There is a real possibility a 33 year old Sale opts out of a 2/55 deal that is REALLY 2/35 + 20 MM in 15 years…. More like a 2/45 deal.  “Risky”, but if he can get even 2/40 it’s more $ in hand sooner.  Guessing the holdup in my proposal (besides the obvious who Boston gets) might be who takes the deferred $ in 2023 -24 (after the opt out)….

Summary:  Many teams could help solve Boston’s payroll issue by absorbing Sale’s $10 MM deferred in 2020, but Padres deep pool of MLB & near ready SP tough to beat.  Boston won't give Sale away even after a "down" year (look at the peripherals; basically HR up in AL East with a juiced ball).   Totally different semi team-friendly contract to a younger more effective guy.  But the down year & potential opt out & $ crunch give SD leverage.

 

 

 

We can try to get Sale. He IS exactly the type of TOR starter that we need-if healthy. I would definitely want AJ to check on his medical issues. He has also started losing velocity, so I don't know if of for how much longer he will be a premium pitcher. I am also sure that Boston will ask/demand much more than what you are offering. They will demand Patino and possibly Trammell or Campusano which he will not be worth. If we can get him for what you are offering I would do it.

Quote from Commie on November 26, 2019, 5:37 pm

Yeah they might want Lucchesi instead of Lauer or Baez (closer) instead of Morejon. I'd put Campusano and Wingenter in the deal if they included Betts.

Quote from TatisJr on November 26, 2019, 5:56 pm

 

 

Great Post Brian! I see the Padres and Sox as a trade fit for Sale as well. I could see Myers or Renfroe packaged with Urias, Morejon depending on money involved. Sale (if healthy) is a HUGE acquisition and would immediately make the Padres a top tier pitching staff. Sale definitely comes with risk, but to me he’s worth the gamble. He’s a special pitcher and competitive as they come. I’d like the young Padres pitchers to watch him work. He’s younger than the crop of FA lefties of Ryu,MadBum, Keuchel and Hamels. Sale’s 5 year deal will be shorter and cheaper compared to the likes of Stras and Cole.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 26, 2019, 6:07 pm

Quote from Commie on November 26, 2019, 5:37 pm

Yeah they might want Lucchesi instead of Lauer or Baez (closer) instead of Morejon. I'd put Campusano and Wingenter in the deal if they included Betts.

If we take Sale and his salary, even the part that is deferred, then we are basically done with our off season. We can not afford Betts and Sale.