Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2019, 8:46 pm

Sometime back I suggested Myers is worth about $8MM per season based on his past performance. Fowler is essentially confirming that with his statement that offers on Myers all come with the need for the Padres to eat $10-15MM per year. (Remember they were trying to deal him last winter ... at the deadline ... and apparently continue to do so).

Using my $8MM per year value .... Padres are sitting with $12MM dead money ... can’t do anything about that. So the real question for the Padres is whether they take the $8MM gamble on Myers holding his value and maybe rebounding OR dealing him to “save” the $8MM and deploy it on a different player who can be better than Myers. Maybe the next Kinsler, Hughes, Headley? Maybe actually someone good? Point still will be a gamble.

Then include as part of the scenario ... if the Padres take the $8MM gamble and keep Myers and he does rebound ... they likely  could move him at the trade deadline or next winter on a better deal. If they see no chance of a rebound (or maybe further decline) ... not sure the potential buyers will not see it the same way. Actually surprised there are teams interested .... can’t be many willing to use $8MM per for 3 years when similar performance may be had cheaper ...  likely they are only trying to buy really low for maybe that 1 WAR and upside.

At age 29 and after his past 3 seasons ... not optimistic Myers will go beyond “average” which is useful but not all that exciting.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 4, 2019, 8:53 pm

Quote from Cptjack on October 4, 2019, 7:36 pm

If Fowler is vocalizing it would take 10m/y to move him it's because that was an offer on the table at the deadline. Myers is a change of scenery candidate where you bet on the 29yo returning to form without the weight of expectations. A 36yo PED busted 2B is not.

Fowler saying that does not mean there was an offer. It was him saying "you can have this player for free if you just pay HALF his remaining salary!" That statement was desperation. As to value: Myers lifetime BA-.251 Cano-.302   Myers has hit 30hr once. He has hit 20hr one additional year. That's it. You can expect a .250 with 20HR. You can hope for 30HR. Nobody will be expecting or even hoping for more than that. Cano hit .303 the year he was traded. There is no comparison.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2019, 5:37 am

I looks like a number of issues are coming together to make this winter’s moves maybe more significant that expected ... and moves that focus on upgrading 2020-22. Consider:

1. Fowler and Seider have been focused on contending in 2020-21 since the start of the “5 year plan” ... time has come.

2. Hosmer has an opt out after 2022 when his annual salary drops down to $13MM for the following 3 seasons ... if he returned he gets full 5-10 rights to block any trade ... but he has only “limited” no trade rights 2021-22. Whether it is Hosmer or the Padres ... not likely to be here after 2022.

3. Myers’ contract ends in 2022 .. so expect him gone too in 2023.

4. Machado has an opt out after 2023 and the financial map of MLB may make it reasonable for him to opt out then add that he only has a limited no trade (6 teams annually) so could be moved.

5. Preller’s contract ends in 2022 ... win or gone?

6. New manager gets max 3 years to win or out with Preller?

7. Then just consider that Fowler five years ago said he would take a lead roll for only about 5 years then “retire” ... clearly he is extending that but this next three years may be his swan song and wants to go out a winner.

The ducks are lining up for a major push to win in 2020-22.

Quote from Cptjack on October 5, 2019, 6:51 am

Quote from JasonE135 on October 4, 2019, 8:53 pm

Fowler saying that does not mean there was an offer.

It absolutely does. Got to learn to read people and situations. You think a 78 year old notes specifics without hearing those numbers before.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 5, 2019, 7:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2019, 5:37 am

I looks like a number of issues are coming together to make this winter’s moves maybe more significant that expected ... and moves that focus on upgrading 2020-22. Consider:

1. Fowler and Seider have been focused on contending in 2020-21 since the start of the “5 year plan” ... time has come.

2. Hosmer has an opt out after 2022 when his annual salary drops down to $13MM for the following 3 seasons ... if he returned he gets full 5-10 rights to block any trade ... but he has only “limited” no trade rights 2021-22. Whether it is Hosmer or the Padres ... not likely to be here after 2022.

3. Myers’ contract ends in 2022 .. so expect him gone too in 2023.

4. Machado has an opt out after 2023 and the financial map of MLB may make it reasonable for him to opt out then add that he only has a limited no trade (6 teams annually) so could be moved.

5. Preller’s contract ends in 2022 ... win or gone?

6. New manager gets max 3 years to win or out with Preller?

7. Then just consider that Fowler five years ago said he would take a lead roll for only about 5 years then “retire” ... clearly he is extending that but this next three years may be his swan song and wants to go out a winner.

The ducks are lining up for a major push to win in 2020-22.

Don't think Hosmer opts out if he doesn't improve WAR to like 2+ in 20 and 21.. He won't get $13 in the open market with .5 WAR more like $5 mil..and older.. So if not traded I think Eric is here for the entire contract not necessarily a negative .. Machado needs to be more like 4 + WAR going foward to make sense for him to opt out as well..and really like 5 WAR to do better than $30 mil at age 30-31.. He won't be traded umless we have a STAR SS or 3B in the minors.. That vould either bump Tatis jr to 3B or replace Machado at 3B.. The rest I do agree with

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2019, 8:31 am

Everything rests on how Machado and Hosmer play over the next few seasons .... could go either way with the unknown of the new CBA rules and money available around the league.

For Hosmer the threshold for opting out is not that high ... hit a 2 WAR and a good chance $13MM 3 years from now is viewed “reasonable” for a 1 - 2 WAR. Plus he would have $39MM/3 years ... he may see as a FA getting an “extra year” even at a reduced annual and end up in a better position that hitting FA three years later.

The point is that there is a chance he moves on ... plus from the Padres perspective will they want him locked in for three more years with full no trade rights? Padres may want to avoid that even at $13MM per year and trade him.

Agree at $30MM/year Machado’s opt out is less likely. However, if he starts playing up to expectations, there will be some teams that would trade for him and take the contract ... again an issue for 2023 when he would earn 5 - 10 rights and full no trade. Padres may want to avoid that $150MM/5 years still owed being locked in.

Of course if they underperform .. they are not going anywhere.

The point is that their is a possibility they (or the Padres) want to make a change in the 2022-3 timeframe ... adding motivation to make moves to win in 2020-21.

If the next years go poorly ... we could be seeing a total re-imaging in 2023 with reliance on the prospects having developed and new leadership.

Quote from Commie on October 5, 2019, 5:13 pm

This should be a fun off season starting pretty quick after WS. Manager will probably be announced then plus a flurry of minor roster adjustment deals by many teams including SD. We (really you guys I've been MIA) have been batting about the same Dickerson-Benetendi-Marte stuff for a while.

How about some guys who shouldn't be available, but probably are?  How about Lamet, Morejon, Edwards and Myers for Harper.  If he'll waive no trade I bet that gets it done.  There's your LH CORF. I'm only 10% tongue in cheek on this.

Any others come to mind?  Scherzer?

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 5, 2019, 5:18 pm

I’m looking forward to Nov 9th.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2019, 7:04 am

Took a look at the “qualified” OF in 2019 and those (who may be available) for the OBP / wRC+ vs. RHP. These four would be “full time” since they are effective vs LHP too. Are they really available and for what price????? Worth calls.

,382 / 141 ... Conforto (L) ... NYM ... seems as though the Mets will make a push to contended in the NL EAST holding their SP (recently said the will not trade Syndergaard) .... they need RP, catching, CF. Money-wise the GM is trying to get ownership to shift some finances around and up the 2020 budget since 2021 will drop with the contracts for Cespedes and Wright drop (big money).

.362 / 127 ... Marte ... PITT ... the Pirates are in the same boat as the Padres with some good talent and some big holes that faded in the 2nd half ... also with a new manager ... PITT will not spend money (which is why Marte may be in play) .... they need pitching for the future. Marte has 2 years at about $12MM / year. Probably looking for legit talent and league minimum.

.330 / 112 ... Calhoun (L) ... Free Agent ... a money only sign RF with good defense.

.357 / 111 ... Merrifield ... KC ... played a lot of OF in 2019 .... KC is clearly heading to a full rebuild with a new manager ... Merrifield is an All-Star and under control for a few years under a real club friendly contract but already in around 30 so maybe not the guy they will build around. KC is also a low payroll team so a candidate for taking a package of high quality prospects / low cost.

Dickerson (FA) did not show as “qualified” so not on my list.

Don’t really see Conforto being dealt by the NYM. The others ... maybe ... but in the PITT / KC scenarios .... volume / quality / long control / low cost is likely the profile for a package.