Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2019, 10:29 am

Reading today MLBTradeRumors write-up on the Padres team .... they mention a consideration of trading Yates and suggested given his salary coupled with his performance over the past two seasons should yield a very good return plus Preller’s (and I should add Balsley’s) ability to create plus closers out of thin air.

If the Padres are shuffling the pieces maybe clearing the $6.5MM for Yates helps the money available to address OF / SP.

Or if you really want a big payroll drop .... package Yates (way under market), Myers (way over market), and a non-elite prospect (to offset a bit of Myers’ future years) and get some low level prospect in return. Buyer would pick-up $26.6MM in 2020 and that may not be way out of line with the combined value of the duo.

Padres if they continued with dumping Hedges and Renfroe they would drop under $100MM ... and could go all in SP/OF upgrades.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 5, 2019, 1:48 pm

I totally understand packaging Yates to dump Myers. However, if SD wants to compete this year, dont you need a reliable bullpen? Preller would have to feel really comfortable with what, Munoz taking over as the closer, with Baez in the 8th, and Strahm in the 7th? Castillo if healthy could be in the 7th or 8th inning discussion, correct? Or would you put Castillo in the hunt for 9th inning duties as well?

Quote from JasonE135 on November 5, 2019, 2:12 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 5, 2019, 1:48 pm

I totally understand packaging Yates to dump Myers. However, if SD wants to compete this year, dont you need a reliable bullpen? Preller would have to feel really comfortable with what, Munoz taking over as the closer, with Baez in the 8th, and Strahm in the 7th? Castillo if healthy could be in the 7th or 8th inning discussion, correct? Or would you put Castillo in the hunt for 9th inning duties as well?

Trading Yates would be seriously counterproductive. Munoz needs another year or two. His control has been looking pretty good but it needs to get better. His slider tends to just slowly drop without a sharp snap of a break too often. It has mostly been working as a changeup to his 100mph heat and still needs work. As far as Castillo, we cannot count on a guy with no closing experience who was hurt all year to just step in. I love Strahm but he doesn't intimidate people. Nothing he throws is exceptional. He can be hit if you just wait him out and force him to throw strikes.

We should be extending Yates, not trading him. He provides huge value by closing and letting  other guys develop and mature in lower pressure situations.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 5, 2019, 2:38 pm

So Benintendi with either Eovaldi or Price added ..becoming a real rumor out of Boston.. Hmm I see Beni as an elite LHB in about 2 yrs.. And a very good one now.. I mean he had an off year in 2019 and still would have been our best OFer..and 2 yrs ago he was a 3.7 WAR player..so ?? I prefer Price but he makes the most ..still we could eat a net +$13 mil lets say while adding a COF and a SP.. Something like Price + Beni for Myers + Hedges + Arias + Weathers..

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2019, 3:08 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 5, 2019, 2:38 pm

So Benintendi with either Eovaldi or Price added ..becoming a real rumor out of Boston.. Hmm I see Beni as an elite LHB in about 2 yrs.. And a very good one now.. I mean he had an off year in 2019 and still would have been our best OFer..and 2 yrs ago he was a 3.7 WAR player..so ?? I prefer Price but he makes the most ..still we could eat a net +$13 mil lets say while adding a COF and a SP.. Something like Price + Beni for Myers + Hedges + Arias + Weathers..

IF Boston is willing to move Benintendi with Price in order to move Price’s contract  ... worth considering but remember they need to drop about $30MM to get under the luxury tax threshold ... so the return can’t include Myers and Hedges ... just prospects and league minimum types. More of a Lucchesi, Urias based deal although they would ask for a lot more (meaning quality not quantity) ... but few teams will take on $30+MM so the competition would not be great and the actual deal MIGHT not be all that pricey.

If that deal pushed the Padres to add $30MM+ .... probably in other deals a housecleaning of Renfroe - Margot - Hedges to pull the payroll back into acceptable range. Probably then would eliminate other FA OF too. Price replaces Lucchesi and the OF of Myers - Benintendi - Naylor / Cordero? Kinsler / Garcia at 2B?

Not sure that gets the Padres to the promise land in 2020 (or 2021)

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2019, 3:18 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 5, 2019, 2:12 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 5, 2019, 1:48 pm

I totally understand packaging Yates to dump Myers. However, if SD wants to compete this year, dont you need a reliable bullpen? Preller would have to feel really comfortable with what, Munoz taking over as the closer, with Baez in the 8th, and Strahm in the 7th? Castillo if healthy could be in the 7th or 8th inning discussion, correct? Or would you put Castillo in the hunt for 9th inning duties as well?

Trading Yates would be seriously counterproductive. Munoz needs another year or two. His control has been looking pretty good but it needs to get better. His slider tends to just slowly drop without a sharp snap of a break too often. It has mostly been working as a changeup to his 100mph heat and still needs work. As far as Castillo, we cannot count on a guy with no closing experience who was hurt all year to just step in. I love Strahm but he doesn't intimidate people. Nothing he throws is exceptional. He can be hit if you just wait him out and force him to throw strikes.

We should be extending Yates, not trading him. He provides huge value by closing and letting  other guys develop and mature in lower pressure situations.

Doubt they deal Yates, but age and the life span of closers is iffy at best and if he has a good 2020 ... expect, as a FA, someone who will seek a big contract (mid-teens).

Since 2020 ... in my thinking ... is more about getting to .500 since a lot of holes still exist. IF moving Yates/Myers’ contracts opens up $26MM the question is will they use that wisely for significant upgrades that benefit for the next few years.

As much as the Padres seem to like Yates ... they lost over 90 games with him ... and in 2021 probably not going to pay an aging closer in the mid-teens ... but some team will.

Not likely but something that is not off the table.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 5, 2019, 4:22 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 5, 2019, 2:12 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 5, 2019, 1:48 pm

I totally understand packaging Yates to dump Myers. However, if SD wants to compete this year, dont you need a reliable bullpen? Preller would have to feel really comfortable with what, Munoz taking over as the closer, with Baez in the 8th, and Strahm in the 7th? Castillo if healthy could be in the 7th or 8th inning discussion, correct? Or would you put Castillo in the hunt for 9th inning duties as well?

Trading Yates would be seriously counterproductive. Munoz needs another year or two. His control has been looking pretty good but it needs to get better. His slider tends to just slowly drop without a sharp snap of a break too often. It has mostly been working as a changeup to his 100mph heat and still needs work. As far as Castillo, we cannot count on a guy with no closing experience who was hurt all year to just step in. I love Strahm but he doesn't intimidate people. Nothing he throws is exceptional. He can be hit if you just wait him out and force him to throw strikes.

We should be extending Yates, not trading him. He provides huge value by closing and letting  other guys develop and mature in lower pressure situations.

Absolutely correct!  Even without extending Yates, his value at deadline might be higher than right now.  But by extending him, we have a closer at least 2 years at a below market price; can deal him (for more) if things fall apart or 2-3 inexperienced guys suddenly emerge as dominant.  Don't overlook that Stammen is a FA & we could lose him.  Losing both IMO would be catastrophic to a very inexperienced pen that has potential, but relied very heavily on its anchors.  Also, as the SP staff improves with G. Richards & Gore pitching in place of guys like Margevicius, there will be more close games needing to be closed.

The tired "trade him b/c he has value" refrain is not looking at where the Pads SP staff & org as a whole are headed, and overlooks that teams ALWAYS need bullpen help at trade deadline. If I'm a FA & see SD trade Yates, I sign elsewhere; b/c it's obvious they're not trying to win in short run.  You'll never get ahead saving 6 MM but creating another 2.8 WAR hole.  When we dealt Hand it worked B/C we had Yates waiting in the wings.  Myers (alone) opens up a spot for a LH OF which we need, my Lucchesi inclusion due to adding a #1 SP, etc...  trade from deep strength (past: pen, now: SP), not your best players then creating a vaccuum.

Quote from JasonE135 on November 5, 2019, 5:03 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 5, 2019, 3:18 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 5, 2019, 2:12 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 5, 2019, 1:48 pm

I totally understand packaging Yates to dump Myers. However, if SD wants to compete this year, dont you need a reliable bullpen? Preller would have to feel really comfortable with what, Munoz taking over as the closer, with Baez in the 8th, and Strahm in the 7th? Castillo if healthy could be in the 7th or 8th inning discussion, correct? Or would you put Castillo in the hunt for 9th inning duties as well?

Trading Yates would be seriously counterproductive. Munoz needs another year or two. His control has been looking pretty good but it needs to get better. His slider tends to just slowly drop without a sharp snap of a break too often. It has mostly been working as a changeup to his 100mph heat and still needs work. As far as Castillo, we cannot count on a guy with no closing experience who was hurt all year to just step in. I love Strahm but he doesn't intimidate people. Nothing he throws is exceptional. He can be hit if you just wait him out and force him to throw strikes.

We should be extending Yates, not trading him. He provides huge value by closing and letting  other guys develop and mature in lower pressure situations.

Doubt they deal Yates, but age and the life span of closers is iffy at best and if he has a good 2020 ... expect, as a FA, someone who will seek a big contract (mid-teens).

Since 2020 ... in my thinking ... is more about getting to .500 since a lot of holes still exist. IF moving Yates/Myers’ contracts opens up $26MM the question is will they use that wisely for significant upgrades that benefit for the next few years.

As much as the Padres seem to like Yates ... they lost over 90 games with him ... and in 2021 probably not going to pay an aging closer in the mid-teens ... but some team will.

Not likely but something that is not off the table.

I seem to remember a closer with a similar repertoire and profile to Yates. Started with a 92-95mph fastball that could touch 97. Plus but not dominant. Had an absolute killer changeup(as opposed to Yates's splitter, which is basically the same pitch) Had plus control/command, knew how to set hitters up and how to pitch. His name was Trevor Hoffman. I believe that he aged pretty well.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 6, 2019, 5:43 am

The NYM always seem to have money problems, and with the raises to many players such as DeGrom, Syndergaard, and others. According to two reports I have read, they are in desperate need of a true CFer, with non tendering Lagares. Plus they could use some bottom end SP or BP help. We are able to handle some additional salary, and need LHH OFer with good OBP ability. I propose either trade.

NYM gets either Gettys or Margot and Bolanos and SD gets Conforto

NYM gets either Gettys or Margot and Lauer and SD get Conforto.

Conforto is set to get over $9M in arb this offseason, and the NYM need to lose payroll. IMO Margot and Gettys are equal on defense (very above average) and both have different offensive potential, and NYM can handle the nominal output offensively they will provide, Gettys is the cheaper option. Conforto and Nimmo are very much the same player, Nimmo is much cheaper, the better option for NYM to keep.

So if NYM takes Gettys and either pitcher; both at league minimum, they save about $8M and improve their CF defense. SD gets a LHH RFer, that hit .257BA, .363OBP and drove in 90 runs with 33 HRs for about $8M for 2020, and is still under control for 2021. He was born on the West Coast, so maybe a potential for signing an extension.