Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2019, 11:40 am

MLB.com had some scouting on key players that may come over from Japan / Korea for next season.

On Akiyama (and have heard this before), he is now more a LF than a CF as his defensive skills have diminished at age 31 but should be a good ML hitter as a regular ... one comparison by someone was Adam Eaton ... that is not shabby. However “diminished” does not mean bad ... so still could justify the CF slot if his bat is legit in the ML. One comment was he is seen as a 6-7 type hitter (not sure why).

Think he wanted to be on the West Coast so SD should be a legit contender (if they like him) and he should not be too expensive (note no posting fee) as a 31 singles hitting corner OF / maybe CF.

I may be missing someone but other than Ichiro in the past and that “special case” of Otani .... how may hitters have come over from Japan and became significant starters? A lot of pitchers ... but hitters? Still ... at the right price point ... worth the signing given the Padres need for LHH OF upgrade.

Quote from Commie on October 30, 2019, 11:49 am

Matsui.

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2019, 12:08 pm

Would be shocked if the Padres went to a $150MM payroll ... surprised if it went to $140MM ... could see just over $130MM though.

The problem with signing any single big contract player at $30MM is that by itself would take all the payroll space if off the current base ... so no payroll space to improve one of the poorest offenses in MLB. It would also likely focus the front office into dealing or waiving any of the current roster players who are in arbitration or very near to get their salaries off the books (not trade the prospect replacements). Who we talking about: Hedges; Garcia; Kinsler (but not going to happen); Renfroe; Margot; Jankowski; Strahm; Perdomo. Yates too but less likely. That house cleaning would at least open some payroll space for a offensive OF add with some salary attached.

I would rather push the upper payroll limits with Marte and Dickerson (combined less than $30MM) ... still do more of the housecleaning of arbitration players ... and then have a smaller (but still good) pot of money to pursue a decent veteran SP or wait until mid-season to deploy the money if in contention and focus it on the hole at that time (wherever that may be).

While all that is going on ... bet on the near term development of Gore, Patino, and Morejon, Lawson stepping up into significant rotation roles.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2019, 1:28 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2019, 12:08 pm

Would be shocked if the Padres went to a $150MM payroll ... surprised if it went to $140MM ... could see just over $130MM though.

The problem with signing any single big contract player at $30MM is that by itself would take all the payroll space if off the current base ... so no payroll space to improve one of the poorest offenses in MLB. It would also likely focus the front office into dealing or waiving any of the current roster players who are in arbitration or very near to get their salaries off the books (not trade the prospect replacements). Who we talking about: Hedges; Garcia; Kinsler (but not going to happen); Renfroe; Margot; Jankowski; Strahm; Perdomo. Yates too but less likely. That house cleaning would at least open some payroll space for a offensive OF add with some salary attached.

I would rather push the upper payroll limits with Marte and Dickerson (combined less than $30MM) ... still do more of the housecleaning of arbitration players ... and then have a smaller (but still good) pot of money to pursue a decent veteran SP or wait until mid-season to deploy the money if in contention and focus it on the hole at that time (wherever that may be).

While all that is going on ... bet on the near term development of Gore, Patino, and Morejon, Lawson stepping up into significant rotation roles.

Lin or Acee I believe said theyve been told ownership could go somewhere between 140-150 this offseason as they kick it into high gear.. I dont know if it was last season after machado or the yr before after Hosmer that Fowler said (on the radio in an interview) that SDP were poised to got to $150 mil in payroll (and maintain it) when and as long as the window stays open... so ???

 

I did say Ideal above..

Puig is a fiery (Tatis Jr) type of energy player - he is great with kids and yes he had some miss perceptions or issues at a younger age-- but dont mistake his larger than life persona with being a Cancer.. if anything he is a (Franmil Reyes) type glue guy-- or the anti-Myers

 

I did say ideally-- above our offseason may look a lot different than that.. IN- MadBum + Cole Hamels, Marte + Shogo, Villar.... Out Urias + Lucchesi + Myers + Weathers + Potts... or something along those lines -- which will be fine if the goal is 85 Wins with some luck in 2020.. BUT if the Goal is to take this thing all the way in 20 or 21.. We need ONE of Stras or Cole.. (at worst Kubler or Noah) AND  2 OF'ers who kill RHP....  Otherwise we are just hoping to make chicken salad from chicken shit ..I mean lets say we go WC2 in 2020 and make a Nats run... here we are game 1 of the WS vs NYY...  Cole/Severino 1-2.... How the hell would we match that with Richards and Paddack...? Not even close.. ADD Strasburg and yeah now we have a chance-- then there is NYY hitters vs Ours.. Much work yet to do, my friends

Quote from BoosterSD on October 30, 2019, 1:41 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2019, 1:28 pm

 

Puig is a fiery (Tatis Jr) type of energy player - he is great with kids and yes he had some miss perceptions or issues at a younger age-- but dont mistake his larger than life persona with being a Cancer.. if anything he is a (Franmil Reyes) type glue guy-- or the anti-Myers

You can think this all you want, but as J135 said, there is a reason why he has been on 3 teams in 1 season, he is not a playoff caliber person.

When it comes to Puig, be Nancy Reagan and "Just say NO!!"

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2019, 1:58 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 30, 2019, 1:41 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2019, 1:28 pm

 

Puig is a fiery (Tatis Jr) type of energy player - he is great with kids and yes he had some miss perceptions or issues at a younger age-- but dont mistake his larger than life persona with being a Cancer.. if anything he is a (Franmil Reyes) type glue guy-- or the anti-Myers

You can think this all you want, but as J135 said, there is a reason why he has been on 3 teams in 1 season, he is not a playoff caliber person.

When it comes to Puig, be Nancy Reagan and "Just say NO!!"

I will let AJP do what he thinks is best.. And just throw stuff out here.. "In AJP I Trust"

Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2019, 2:07 pm

I don't see a lot of major trades happening this off-season. The math on trades has changed. It seems that every team that has someone to trade still wants a kings ransom and that is just not going to happen anymore. I looked back at some 2018 articles and at that time the Mets fully expected to be able to get both Tatis and Gore for Syndergaard. They still expected to get Gore+ at the trade deadline this year. Teams who are trading players are looking at the returns teams have gotten in trades for Archer, Sale and even Shields and expecting that that is the standard price. They forget that the other team would never do that trade again because it turned out to be a fleecing. Now teams expect ready to make an impact premium prospects in return for anyone of value. They forget that, in the Archer and Shields trades, teams were gambling on either extremely long range prospects with upside(Tatis), or former top prospects who had not shown anything in the majors and so had become extremely talented semi-failures(Glasnow and Meadows). Teams that are trading are expecting that kind of value without taking the risk. I can guarantee you that the Pirates will demand 1 of our top 6 prospects plus more for Marte. If we don't, they will talk to someone else. Either someone will be desperate enough to overpay or he will not be traded. I don't see that trade happening with us. If it does it will be because AJ got desperate and got robbed. Much less any of these other crazy trades. It is just not a traders market right now. There have been too many grand thefts and extreme regrets recently. I would expect our improvements to come from lower level free agent signings and trades for less-than-premium talents.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2019, 3:11 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2019, 2:07 pm

I don't see a lot of major trades happening this off-season. The math on trades has changed. It seems that every team that has someone to trade still wants a kings ransom and that is just not going to happen anymore. I looked back at some 2018 articles and at that time the Mets fully expected to be able to get both Tatis and Gore for Syndergaard. They still expected to get Gore+ at the trade deadline this year. Teams who are trading players are looking at the returns teams have gotten in trades for Archer, Sale and even Shields and expecting that that is the standard price. They forget that the other team would never do that trade again because it turned out to be a fleecing. Now teams expect ready to make an impact premium prospects in return for anyone of value. They forget that, in the Archer and Shields trades, teams were gambling on either extremely long range prospects with upside(Tatis), or former top prospects who had not shown anything in the majors and so had become extremely talented semi-failures(Glasnow and Meadows). Teams that are trading are expecting that kind of value without taking the risk. I can guarantee you that the Pirates will demand 1 of our top 6 prospects plus more for Marte. If we don't, they will talk to someone else. Either someone will be desperate enough to overpay or he will not be traded. I don't see that trade happening with us. If it does it will be because AJ got desperate and got robbed. Much less any of these other crazy trades. It is just not a traders market right now. There have been too many grand thefts and extreme regrets recently. I would expect our improvements to come from lower level free agent signings and trades for less-than-premium talents.

We got like 9ur #23 prospect for Shields at the time

Quote from TatisJr on October 30, 2019, 3:13 pm

The math on trades has not changed because Pitt made a bad trade with the Rays. If anything, the value of prospects has increased in recent years with more teams being analytically driven. Teams focus on acquiring cheap controllable talent. AJP has a giant treasure chest loaded with talented, young, controllable players. AJP is sitting in the drivers seat with a deep, top farm. He isn’t going to bust up the farm for 2020, but I would shocked if we didn’t see at least 2 or 3 multiple player deals involving some of the Padres young guys. Pitt may want a Campusano in a Marte deal. AJP could say “No” to that and counter with a package like Cantillo, Lawson and Rosario. A package like that might be more valuable to a rebuilding Pitt team than say the number 5 prospect from some other team. The Padres don’t need to trade a top 5 prospect to make a deal of significance. It’s not like the Padres farm is barren of talent after the consensus top 10.