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#221 · October 29, 2019, 3:44 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2019, 3:15 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2019, 3:04 pmQuote from BoosterSD on October 29, 2019, 2:36 pmQuote from fenn68 on October 29, 2019, 2:30 pmI guess may the first question on the value of Myers to the Padres right now should be shaped by (without getting anyone in return or adding anyone into the deal) by you as management ... how much would you eat of his contract to just make him go away.
Owed $61MM over the next 3 years. You can make him go away by just a DFA and eat it all ... so getting rid of him is easy.
I would not do that since the Padres OF now is not all that impressive and probably could improve it more by moving Renfroe, Margot before Myers ... but then at the right deal.
Actually Fenn, he is owed $67.5M for the next 3 years($22.5M per year), plus a $1M buyout for the 4th year. A no brainer at this point. So he is really owed $68.5M for the next 3 years. This is per baseball reference salaries on his page.
So lets just say he is owed $69 mil to round it out..
Question #1 how much value does he have to a team (I would guess this is a polarizing ? but with 29 other teams out there I am sure there are 29 different valuations on Myers) Teams could gamble on career breakout, Teams could see him as a very valuable 4th OF and Teams can view him as a sunk cost with $5mil a year ceiling... lets just say a couple teams view him as a $9mil a yr player (probably higher by some, but lets say $9mil is the highest value a team places on Myers) so using fangraphs Prospect $$$ value
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/
say Baltimore wants some prospects in Lieu of $$ for taking on Myers... Padres could offer Weathers (50 P $21 mil value) + Potts (high 45 around $15 mil) + Nix (mid 45 $10 mil) +Myers = (with that $9 mil value (x3) the Orioles have on him ) that would = $73 mil
so a fair trade with Orioles could look something like this Mychael Givens RP for Myers (taking on all $69 mil on) + Weathers + Potts and Nix
Padres would then have freed up $20 mil to pursue upgrades elsewhere..
Trade could also be expanded to include say $10 mil (30 mil extra value) per yr.. and adding Trey Mancini to the deal or taking on Naylor without the extra $10 mil
so basically a lot of ways for Myers to stay or go.. Obviously if Padres simply want to eat Myers and pay $0 dollars of his salary they can just DFA him and do so... cost and effect... the more they eat of Myers the less prospect revenue they need to include.. example they pony up $30 mil then Weathers is off the table.. etc,, etc,,, ... a lot of ways this could go.. but I think Myers days in SDP are numbered as in no more than 60 days left
If we could get rid of him and only lose Weathers, Potts and Nix I would do that in an instant! I personally think any team would want more prospect value than that. We could turn that $20 million into Dickerson and Akiyama and still have money left over. Who brings more value? Would you pay $69 million for Weathers, Potts and Nix? I wouldn't.
why wouldnt you-- we paid $38 mil for a prospect that wasnt even a top 200 prospect-- all 3 of these guys are-- and saved $65 mil overall
#222 · October 29, 2019, 4:24 pm
I am not asking that. I am asking would YOU, personally, Henry, pay that much for those prospects if YOU were running a team? Because I would most certainly not.
#223 · October 29, 2019, 4:36 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2019, 4:24 pmI am not asking that. I am asking would YOU, personally, Henry, pay that much for those prospects if YOU were running a team? Because I would most certainly not.
If I am an owner of a $2 Billion mlb team id better be willing to spend money on potential good to great mlb players.. Being anythingvother than that would be shortsighted
#224 · October 29, 2019, 4:42 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 29, 2019, 2:36 pmQuote from fenn68 on October 29, 2019, 2:30 pmI guess may the first question on the value of Myers to the Padres right now should be shaped by (without getting anyone in return or adding anyone into the deal) by you as management ... how much would you eat of his contract to just make him go away.
Owed $61MM over the next 3 years. You can make him go away by just a DFA and eat it all ... so getting rid of him is easy.
I would not do that since the Padres OF now is not all that impressive and probably could improve it more by moving Renfroe, Margot before Myers ... but then at the right deal.
Actually Fenn, he is owed $67.5M for the next 3 years($22.5M per year), plus a $1M buyout for the 4th year. A no brainer at this point. So he is really owed $68.5M for the next 3 years. This is per baseball reference salaries on his page.
The difference between the $22.5MM and the $20MM is the amortization of the signing bonus (paid in year 0ne). The cash owed (and what any deal will address) is the cash contract amount of $20MM per year.
The $22.5MM is used in some reference calculations of payroll but it is not the cash view. Think the $60.1MM is the amount in play for Myers
#225 · October 29, 2019, 4:46 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2019, 4:36 pmQuote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2019, 4:24 pmI am not asking that. I am asking would YOU, personally, Henry, pay that much for those prospects if YOU were running a team? Because I would most certainly not.
If I am an owner of a $2 Billion mlb team id better be willing to spend money on potential good to great mlb players.. Being anythingvother than that would be shortsighted
Is that a yes or a no?
#226 · October 29, 2019, 4:54 pm
Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2019, 4:42 pmQuote from BoosterSD on October 29, 2019, 2:36 pmQuote from fenn68 on October 29, 2019, 2:30 pmI guess may the first question on the value of Myers to the Padres right now should be shaped by (without getting anyone in return or adding anyone into the deal) by you as management ... how much would you eat of his contract to just make him go away.
Owed $61MM over the next 3 years. You can make him go away by just a DFA and eat it all ... so getting rid of him is easy.
I would not do that since the Padres OF now is not all that impressive and probably could improve it more by moving Renfroe, Margot before Myers ... but then at the right deal.
Actually Fenn, he is owed $67.5M for the next 3 years($22.5M per year), plus a $1M buyout for the 4th year. A no brainer at this point. So he is really owed $68.5M for the next 3 years. This is per baseball reference salaries on his page.
The difference between the $22.5MM and the $20MM is the amortization of the signing bonus (paid in year 0ne). The cash owed (and what any deal will address) is the cash contract amount of $20MM per year.
The $22.5MM is used in some reference calculations of payroll but it is not the cash view. Think the $60.1MM is the amount in play for Myers
Interesting, thanks.
#227 · October 29, 2019, 8:01 pm
I want to get back to trade ideas for starting pitching. I still think there is a chance that Kluber finds his way back to the San Diego organization and, more importantly, has at least two near elite years left in him to help guide the young Padre staff. What would Cleveland want? Probably some pitchers (a high prospect and a current starter) a INF (2b or 3b) and a decent throw in with potential either an OF, C, or RP. Don't know if this would be enough but I'd go with an offer of Lauer, Morejon, Urias, and Austin Allen or Torrens. Corey Kluber will be 34 but a couple of effective pitchers in the world series are 36!
#228 · October 29, 2019, 8:32 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2019, 8:01 pmI want to get back to trade ideas for starting pitching. I still think there is a chance that Kluber finds his way back to the San Diego organization and, more importantly, has at least two near elite years left in him to help guide the young Padre staff. What would Cleveland want? Probably some pitchers (a high prospect and a current starter) a INF (2b or 3b) and a decent throw in with potential either an OF, C, or RP. Don't know if this would be enough but I'd go with an offer of Lauer, Morejon, Urias, and Austin Allen or Torrens. Corey Kluber will be 34 but a couple of effective pitchers in the world series are 36!
Welcome to the site, hope you enjoy the banter here.
My only concern with Kluber, is where is he at in his decline. Last season was rough, but was it just the injury? 2017 was pretty good though. Tough call.
#229 · October 29, 2019, 9:51 pm
Kubler's analytics were still solid this year before the injury..so I dont see much decline if any..especially away from the AL and pitching 1/2 his games at Petco.. I actyally would love Kubler + Strasburg (+$48 mil) in SD... We would need to add whatever prospects we need to to Myers so someone takes him at his value $60 mil /3..all of it.. By my calculations that leaves enough to add an OF or 2 moving perhaps arb guys like Jank Myers and Hedges to add $$$ to the available POT for 2020.. Imagine a Marte + Puig adds (both righties who kill rughties so no problem there ) Naylor/Marte/Puig would be a nice high OBP .350 or so trio with 25 HR pop.. And good bat to ball skills .. Margot /Franchy could provide R/L bats off the bench and Defensive sub possibilities in LF and CF... Mejia/Urias and Naylor ..eventually Olivares/Ona and Trammell get to be integrated into the plan or traded for more pieces down the line .. Mejia/Urias and Naylor would also bat 678 or 679.. Taking pressure off.. If Naylor went in Kubler deal could add JPN FA CF Shogo at a low cost to the equation
#230 · October 29, 2019, 9:56 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on October 29, 2019, 8:01 pmI want to get back to trade ideas for starting pitching. I still think there is a chance that Kluber finds his way back to the San Diego organization and, more importantly, has at least two near elite years left in him to help guide the young Padre staff. What would Cleveland want? Probably some pitchers (a high prospect and a current starter) a INF (2b or 3b) and a decent throw in with potential either an OF, C, or RP. Don't know if this would be enough but I'd go with an offer of Lauer, Morejon, Urias, and Austin Allen or Torrens. Corey Kluber will be 34 but a couple of effective pitchers in the world series are 36!
Does Kluber have that kind of value? I do not believe that he does. I would not give up both Morejon and Urias for anything but a premium pitcher who can be counted on to be premium. Your trade is a lot to give up for a maybe. Strasburg and Verlander are the rare exceptions, not the rule. Their stuff, even after their decline, is still better than the stuff Kluber has ever had.