Quote from JasonE135 on October 27, 2019, 9:18 pm

Have you guys seen that Juan Soto expected to be a Padre? How is that for an epic miss on the part of our FO. Could have kept us from having to trade for offense this off-season. We would only need an ACE at this point. I know, I know, hindsight is always 20/20 but he could have solved our problems with hitting right-handers and our poor OBP problem pretty much by himself. I just don't get how this article is comparing how if we got Soto we wouldn't have gotten Tatis. We traded for Tatis and we were expected to have signed Soto it seems.

https://www.12up.com/posts/juan-soto-reveals-he-once-thought-he-would-sign-with-the-padres-01dr569hrcwr

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 27, 2019, 10:43 pm

Yeah imagine Rae not getting hurt and us keeping Castillo .. No need for an ACE.. And Soto ..wow

Quote from BoosterSD on October 28, 2019, 7:15 am

PIT Pirates will fire Hunington later today. How will that play into Marte getting dealt this offseason? Will a new GM come in and want to get prospects/players that fits that GMs idea of a winning team, or does that make it almost impossible not to get Marte out of PIT?

Quote from BoosterSD on October 28, 2019, 7:26 am

Quote from JasonE135 on October 27, 2019, 9:18 pm

Have you guys seen that Juan Soto expected to be a Padre? How is that for an epic miss on the part of our FO. Could have kept us from having to trade for offense this off-season. We would only need an ACE at this point. I know, I know, hindsight is always 20/20 but he could have solved our problems with hitting right-handers and our poor OBP problem pretty much by himself. I just don't get how this article is comparing how if we got Soto we wouldn't have gotten Tatis. We traded for Tatis and we were expected to have signed Soto it seems.

https://www.12up.com/posts/juan-soto-reveals-he-once-thought-he-would-sign-with-the-padres-01dr569hrcwr

Your correct, I think the article is unfamiliar with either the signing process or our acquisition of Tatis. I agree, I dont think it would have been one or the other that year. IIRC, Tatis signed for $700K and Sotos was $1.5M both in 2015, so was Fowler and Co. just not seeing the value at that time of IFA? That was the year prior to our big spending spree in 2016. So, did SD just get out bid that year, or did someone in Soto's camp nudge him towards WAS for some reason? Its always hard to know in those situations. Although how fun would it be to have an OF of Renfroe, Marot, and Soto, along with Tatis.

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2019, 9:16 am

Keep in mind that Preller was just hired in August, 2014 and the initial focus from the front office was that winter’s explosion of ML signings / trades.

So for the 2015 international signing period have to consider that a ton of money was focused on the Kemps, Upton, et al. Plus Preller was still assembling his international scouting staff and getting them geared up to start working the international markets. Getting the needed relationships does take time.

We saw 2016 was totally different internationally.

Probably in on Soto (and others) ... just out bid as were many of the other 28 teams who also now regret it.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 28, 2019, 9:37 am

Just imagine if AJP is allowed to do his thing from day 1 and not go all in... Would you prefer

Turner / Joe Ross/ Malik Smith/ Max Fried/Grandal

OR

Myers /Margot/ Paddack / Guerra/ Castillo / Espinoza/Tatis Jr

 

Since we would have not had Shields /or Kimbrel if AJP didnt go all in 1st yr.. But I ? The talent we got Because we went all in ..vs the talent we gave up to do so..?? I think Paddack + Tatis Jr + Castillo (BP) are pretty elite... But I ask which would you rather have payroll and all

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2019, 9:47 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 28, 2019, 7:15 am

PIT Pirates will fire Hunington later today. How will that play into Marte getting dealt this offseason? Will a new GM come in and want to get prospects/players that fits that GMs idea of a winning team, or does that make it almost impossible not to get Marte out of PIT?

Might have to first consider the mind of the owner ... apparently not that easy to understand or believe. Would expect him to hire a GM to follow his future strategy and not give a free hand to the new guy.

Then probably need to add the timing issue. They took a long time before firing the GM (but soon after the dreaded vote of confidence) ... now suspend hiring a new manager until after the new GM arrives. Time goes for the GM hiring ... time goes for the GM hiring the manager ... time goes for the new GM to actually “learn” about his players (pros and cons) ... all probably before he makes any trades ... may all that get done before the Winter Meetings but probably not a lot of pre-meeting work with other teams on deals.

An issue with Pitt maybe delaying any decisions on making moves is that every other team will take other options as needed ... not going to wait around for the chance they might get a Marte and fill their need elsewhere. Not best for PITT (reduced buyers) ... which may make them lean to a HOLD this winter.

Now sure how Preller is reading the ownership behind the curtain after dealing with Huntington. IF he sees them as not wanting to spend (historically they don’t) and wanting to bite the bullet into a rebuild ... he may take the first opportunity to initiated an offer to the new GM (not low ball but fair) and scoop up Marte before any others make their move (assuming HE likes Marte).

Hard to imagine PITT who is not likely to contend in the next two years not making Marte available now to maximize return ... hard pressed to overtake STL, MILW, CUBS, and even CINN who is on the rise.

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2019, 10:14 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 28, 2019, 9:37 am

Just imagine if AJP is allowed to do his thing from day 1 and not go all in... Would you prefer

Turner / Joe Ross/ Malik Smith/ Max Fried/Grandal

OR

Myers /Margot/ Paddack / Guerra/ Castillo / Espinoza/Tatis Jr

 

Since we would have not had Shields /or Kimbrel if AJP didnt go all in 1st yr.. But I ? The talent we got Because we went all in ..vs the talent we gave up to do so..?? I think Paddack + Tatis Jr + Castillo (BP) are pretty elite... But I ask which would you rather have payroll and all

 

I prefer the way things turned out with Tatis, Paddack, et al in the fold .... and give Preller a lot of credit for his “recovery” moves post the 2015 adds which we can still debate how much of that direction was from the higher ups.

Hard to draw firm conclusions about future Preller moves ... especially when they may not be clouded by bad contracts and / or guidance from higher ups. Clearly he is very good in deep diving in deals for quality out of the lower minors and evaluation amateur talent. However, not so sure about his evaluation of ML talent in trades or as FA.

Never really know, but I am pretty confident that he will not move any prospect he considers “elite” (based in his evaluation) or any prospect that is a step below elite but on a track to fill a perceived near term need. He has said in the past part of the value of developing a deep farm system is to use it for making deals. I guess that could go two ways. First the obvious and deal the prospects for ML talent but conversely maybe deal the more desirable ML player of the roster and back fill with the prospect (who may turn out better).

Given the near term potential of Gore, Patino, Morejon .... maybe makes the Lucchesi, Lauer, and even Lamet more in play ... for the impact return piece.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 28, 2019, 10:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2019, 9:47 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 28, 2019, 7:15 am

PIT Pirates will fire Hunington later today. How will that play into Marte getting dealt this offseason? Will a new GM come in and want to get prospects/players that fits that GMs idea of a winning team, or does that make it almost impossible not to get Marte out of PIT?

Might have to first consider the mind of the owner ... apparently not that easy to understand or believe. Would expect him to hire a GM to follow his future strategy and not give a free hand to the new guy.

Then probably need to add the timing issue. They took a long time before firing the GM (but soon after the dreaded vote of confidence) ... now suspend hiring a new manager until after the new GM arrives. Time goes for the GM hiring ... time goes for the GM hiring the manager ... time goes for the new GM to actually “learn” about his players (pros and cons) ... all probably before he makes any trades ... may all that get done before the Winter Meetings but probably not a lot of pre-meeting work with other teams on deals.

An issue with Pitt maybe delaying any decisions on making moves is that every other team will take other options as needed ... not going to wait around for the chance they might get a Marte and fill their need elsewhere. Not best for PITT (reduced buyers) ... which may make them lean to a HOLD this winter.

Now sure how Preller is reading the ownership behind the curtain after dealing with Huntington. IF he sees them as not wanting to spend (historically they don’t) and wanting to bite the bullet into a rebuild ... he may take the first opportunity to initiated an offer to the new GM (not low ball but fair) and scoop up Marte before any others make their move (assuming HE likes Marte).

Hard to imagine PITT who is not likely to contend in the next two years not making Marte available now to maximize return ... hard pressed to overtake STL, MILW, CUBS, and even CINN who is on the rise.

I like 3 pieces if not 4 from Pitt... Marte/Reynolds and Archer (I think DB makes him a CY) and also Newman (he was like Urias but 10 x's worse as a rookie .476 OPS over 91 or so PA's.. then as a Sophmore .800 OPS--hope Urias is our Newman)...

 

I like to see a blockbuster between our clubs... Renfroe/Hedges/Lucchesi/Patino/Arias/Margot + Morejon  FOR  Marte/Reynolds/+ Archer

Pirates do Have Bell + Newman and some other pieces making a trade that adds depth and cheap controllable players + 1 Elite P prospect and 1 semi-elite SS prospect sort of neutralizes the sour taste in their mouth on the Archer deal.

Padres do this because both Marte and Reynolds destroy RHP and hold their own vs lefties -- the former was a huge problem for us.. We loose the Power of Renfroe but gain a ton of OBP..and the younger Reynolds would have > control.. Archer still missed plenty of bats, his HR allowed and his BB's are a concern - but he hasnt lost anything over the 3.86 ERA (career) type SP he can be... Pirates also save $15+ mil in payroll after arb raises etc..

I kind of see Archer as a (pre-injury) Tyson Ross and the type of high SO SP that DB does great with (assuming DB still our P coach)...

This move + a SP (Keuchel?) in a Naylor + Cantillo ++ type deal and a SHOGO (JPN) type signing and we can have our revamped OF... Ship Myers + $30 mil to Orioles for their Closer and that would be a sweet offseason

1. Tatis Jr SS
2. Marte RF
3. Machado 3B
4. Hosmer 1B (vs rhp) Mejia C (vs lhp)
5. Reynolds LF
6. Mejia C (vs rhp)
7. Urias 2B
8. Pitcher
9. SHOGO CF

Hosmer drops to 7 vs lefties or sits on occasion... with Reynolds and Mejia switch hitters and Hosmer + Shogo lefty sticks -- there will be a need for a power PH righty on the bench to go with France off the bench.. Kinsler/Garcia

 

SP 2020

1. Kubler
2. Paddack
3. Richards
4. Lamet
5. Archer

SP 2021

1. Kubler
2. Gore
3. Paddack
4. Lamet
5. Archer

Lauer/Bolanos/etc,, adding depth

pressure off Archer, + DB could give us a huge boost,, only thing I dont like is the all RHP starting rotation in 2020.. (with Lauer as the 6th and only lefty options)...